We demand you change physics!December 3, 2020 Tim WorstallEnvironmentalism106 CommentsCharging electric cars must become ‘as easy as getting petrol’ So, how we gonna do that then? previousD’ye remember this?nextGroup sex is compulsory now 106 thoughts on “We demand you change physics!” Mark in Mayenne December 3, 2020 at 7:47 am IMHO, electric cars are a dead end. There is no way that the electricity distribution network can carry enough energy to replace the power consumption of every vehicle on the road. They have enough trouble generating and distributing enough electricity for standard use in a cold winter. Ljh December 3, 2020 at 7:52 am MiM: it makes perfect sense if they wish to restrict freedom of movement for the many. See how well they’ve done this year, equipped only with an average respiratory virus. Mark December 3, 2020 at 7:59 am Well, you could make getting petrol as difficult as charging a milk float. Then, technically, the statement would be correct. I could do you a PowerPoint prove it. Ljh December 3, 2020 at 8:08 am They’re phasing out ICE cars and the only increase in electricity generation is unreliables. I think it’s safe to deduce that very few cars will be on the road, presumably the roads become zil lanes for our overlords. RichardT December 3, 2020 at 8:14 am Is it just me, or does petrol come out more slowly these days? Bloke in North Dorset December 3, 2020 at 8:31 am Remember when Greenies used to wet themselves predicting peak oil and that we’d have to give up our cars and other oil dependent ways of life and how we laughed at them? Looks like they’re having the last laugh. MC December 3, 2020 at 8:35 am @Ljh, MiM – reducing freedom of movement is definitely the plan. At least 50% of the motivation for the ‘green’ movement is the upper middle class hatred of the proles getting on planes. El Draque December 3, 2020 at 8:49 am Battery swapping has been trialled. But the number of spare batteries needed would be enormous. Pumpable electricity, in liquid form delivered by tankers, is being worked on by a Dutch company. I doubt that either would use less energy to produce. Chernyy_Drakon December 3, 2020 at 8:55 am Might not be all that difficult really to make it as easy as filling up. Could be quicker. All you need to do is design cars to have an interchangeable battery pack. Pull into the station, pop discharged battery out, pop in new one, away you go. A simple robotic arm could do it very quickly. Would need a lot of batteries on standby though to be charging up. Super-capacitors would be better. Petrol and diesel are best. The grail would be some way of synthesising petrol/diesel from the air, by extracting CO2 and water vapour. Could use renewables to do it. I’m not a chemist so I don’t know how feasible that is. Would it need a large plant in the desert or could you have a small unit in every garden? rhoda klapp December 3, 2020 at 9:06 am Electricity can’t match the energy density of petrol and charging can’t therefore match the flow rate of energy through a petrol pump. It just physically can’t be done, yet greenies who don’t have much acquaintance with the laws of physics, or want them repealed, can’t see it. Yes, they want to take away all forms of personal mobility for no reason that stands up to examination other than meanness. I am considering a political movement which has only one principle and slogan: ‘You first’. Jim December 3, 2020 at 9:14 am “They’re phasing out ICE cars and the only increase in electricity generation is unreliables. I think it’s safe to deduce that very few cars will be on the road, presumably the roads become zil lanes for our overlords.” This is more and more my conclusion too. They’ve specifically chosen the most expensive, and least practical method of personal transport. The clincher for me will be what happens if the private sector money thats getting behind hydrogen cars is stymied in some way – new regulations making hydrogen cell cars impractical or uneconomic. That will prove (to me at least) that the aim is not to replace the ICE with something comparable, its to drive the masses off the roads. Mr Ecks December 3, 2020 at 9:18 am Ljh is right. The greenshite is about putting plebs back on Shank’s Pony or shitty state controlled “public” transport. Johnson wont be giving up the limo anytime. Tech points about leccy cars are smokescreen–luckily there are est 37 million votes in drivers /motor transport. Enough to fuck the brainless green indoctrinates. Tim the Coder December 3, 2020 at 9:46 am @CD “The grail would be some way of synthesising petrol/diesel from the air, by extracting CO2 and water vapour. Could use renewables to do it. I’m not a chemist so I don’t know how feasible that is. Would it need a large plant in the desert or could you have a small unit in every garden?” Sure. It’s called biodiesel. Rapeseed oil. Or ethanol from corn. Trouble is, you are running your cars on food. Thereby pushing up the price of food and starving the poorest. How many miles per Biafran? Solar power density for photosynthesis is low, and agriculture is a chemically-intensive business: fertilisers, pesticides etc. Marvellous greeny stuff. Of course, with ample nuclear power, you can make fuel direct from air and water: Mars Direct by Robert Zubrin goes into a lot of detail on the chemical enginmeering, though he has a different objective to doing this. More nukes! and fast! Bloke in Germany December 3, 2020 at 9:52 am “How many miles per Biafran?” Tim the coder wins the internet! Bloke on M4 December 3, 2020 at 10:15 am So, how many charging points are you going to build to handle the Bank Holiday traffic to the South West? All those people driving to Cornwall who don’t have the range and have to stop mid-route with an electric. And it isn’t just charging points. It’s everything. As far as I’m concerned, I want to see a full cycle of ownership from purchase to scrappage for thousands of cars. I want to see all the problems for at least a decade before I’ll buy: charging, battery life, whatever. I’m not going to buy a car with 60,000 on it, only to know that I have a £5000 bill for a new battery not far away. Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 10:20 am “ease” =/= speed. A big problem at the moment is, apparently, that electric car owners (which I’m not, although I expect my next car to be a Tesla as I’m fortunate enough to have a drive way and a work car scheme that makes them excellent value after tax) need to be a member of multiple schemes, give each their payment details, etc, in order to use all of the different charging networks. You rock up to a petrol station and whip out your card. Speed doesn’t really matter, says everyone I know with an EV. You mostly charge overnight at home. On a longer journey, you’d be stopping at least every 200 miles anyway and in half an hour with a very fast charger you’ve got enough for the next 200 miles. Of course, that leaves the problems of people without driveways and whether there are enough very fast chargers where there need on the trunk road network. Speed, though, isn’t the issue. John Galt December 3, 2020 at 10:49 am presumably the roads become zil lanes for our overlords. Which won’t help them much when they’re hanging from the lamp posts. Britain ain’t Russia, in more ways than one. rhoda klapp December 3, 2020 at 11:06 am See this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7C-dSOf0jp4 for a reasonable look at an EV together with what seems to be an optimum charging experience, this time at a station that only needs a card, no app, no registration. The takeaway is 3 miles per minute on charge. I reckon my petrol car gets the best part of 100 times that. philip December 3, 2020 at 11:58 am TtC Agreed. There are small nuclear designs safe enough to put on rockets and fire into space. They are out there. So it would not be much of a stretch to adapt the design to power road transport. Bonus: everyone around you will drive very very carefully and traffic fatalities would plummet. Tim the Coder December 3, 2020 at 12:15 pm @philip Not quite what I meant! 🙂 Making hydrocarbon road fuel from air & water is practical, on an industrial scale, given a high-density source of energy. So normal 1GW PWR would do. Not suggesting atomic cars, and those gull winged doors are infeasible in Tesco car park! Of course, making synthetic fuel is more costly than just using Natural Gas or crude oil as feedstock, until some nutter imposes a carbon tax and survives to collect it. But in reality, hydrocarbon liquid fuels are the only feasible solution for road traffic and aircraft, however sourced. Nothing else comes close. (Hydrogen remains impossible to store in any sensible lightweight format). @BiG. Sorry about your keyboard 🙂 If the pols continue with The Green Madness, we will all have to drive ‘commercial’ vehicles. If they ban those too, the shops empty and we eat the pols. Oswald Thake December 3, 2020 at 1:09 pm Little man, ‘must’ is not a word to use to physicists!’ Gamecock December 3, 2020 at 1:28 pm The UK government is committing economic suicide. Obviously. Move your business here while you still can. Contact https://www.sccommerce.com/buildings-sites Act quickly while the best sites are still available. Boganboy December 3, 2020 at 1:44 pm ‘en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heather_Willauer#Publications’. Must admit I’ve always liked Willauer’s research for the NRL. This seems as though it’d be simpler than LANL’s Green Freedom approach. We could use nukes to run our entire civilisation. The carbon based fuel would merely be a way of storing the nuclear energy. But of course we can do it all more cheaply by fracking, or just regular drilling, or even just mining the coal. mitch December 3, 2020 at 2:04 pm Place Orbital tethers near power stations and use it as a chimney, burn what you like and vent the noxious stuff into space. daft ? Gamecock December 3, 2020 at 2:16 pm ‘Is it just me, or does petrol come out more slowly these days?’ Dunno about Yurop pumps, but I have seen lots of new pumps here start slow. The fix is to stop it, then start again. As if the pump has two speeds. Try it; it only takes a couple of seconds. Gamecock December 3, 2020 at 2:22 pm It has long been known with traditional batteries that: 1. Partial charging can result in reduced total capacity of the battery; 2. Quick charging is damaging to the battery. Time will tell if that still applies to new car batteries. My bet is yes. I would advise people not to buy an electric car if they are going to be using a charging strategy using 1. or 2. “I expect my next car to be a Tesla” Teslas are good cars. If you can afford one and manage charging, enjoy. PJF December 3, 2020 at 2:54 pm The clincher for me will be what happens if the private sector money thats getting behind hydrogen cars is stymied in some way – new regulations making hydrogen cell cars impractical or uneconomic. Hydrogen can’t solve the alleged problem with CO2 – which is (ultimately) that it leads to an increase in water vapour in the atmosphere. Hydrogen as a fuel will just add water vapour to the atmosphere. Chris Miller December 3, 2020 at 3:12 pm @CD All you need to do is design cars to have an interchangeable battery pack. Pull into the station, pop discharged battery out, pop in new one, away you go. A simple robotic arm could do it very quickly. Among the many obstacles to this idea are: 1. Batteries are very heavy, and EVs (ones that can give you a practical range over 200 miles) are built around the battery. They need to be kept as low as possible, to keep the CoG down, and are ‘shaped’ to fill all the nooks and crannies. So exchanging the battery pack is a major operation and they’re all different shapes and sizes. 2. Even if the physical problems could be overcome, batteries are very expensive, and make up about half the value of an EV. How happy would you be, having bought a new Tesla for £100k, to have the battery swapped with one from a Nissan with 100,000 miles on the clock? Not very, I suggest. You could make the batteries a rented item – I think Renault (used to?) do this, but that gives other issues and no other manufacturers seem to have copied them. @Gamecock 1. Partial charging can result in reduced total capacity of the battery; Not an issue with modern (Li-ion) batteries, that don’t suffer from the ‘memory’ problems of NiCads. The fast chargers only go up to a nominal 80-85%; to get to ‘100%’ (which is actually only about 85%, the electronics stop you from completely charging or depleting the batteries, to extend life) you need to ‘trickle charge’ from the domestic mains. 2. Quick charging is damaging to the battery. A very definite problem. Tesla promote their ‘superchargers’, but the system keeps track of how many times you use them and eventually will block you in order to preserve battery life, until you’ve done a few of the trickle charges described above. Very fast charging also generates (inevitably) a lot of waste heat, so you need a good cooling system to support it. Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 3:27 pm @GC, 1) I thought the opposite was true. Charging to full (particularly if you then discharge to empty) is worse than keeping between (say) 10% and 90%. The car manufacturers over-spec the batteries for this reason (and also to lessen the impact of the degradation that will nevertheless occur). I could be wrong. 2. Yup. Agreed. Even I’m not ready to buy an EV, due to my remaining (though diminishing) concerns about lifetime costs, residuals, etc. I am ready to rent one, though, which the current tax breaks plus low interest rates mean I can afford. @rhoda, I (partially) take it back: to some extent, charging speed does matter. 3 miles per minute clearly isn’t good enough. However, if and when you can go from 0% to 80% in 20 minutes (as Tesla claims of its 120kW superchargers), you can be assured that there will be an available charger capable of doing that at every service station, and you can slow charge at home for short journeys and before every long one, then the fact that you can fill your petrol car (and I can fill my diesel) much faster becomes pretty much irrelevant. Electric car drivers who can recharge at home (yup, an important “if”) never need to visit the equivalent of a filling station for short journeys/commuting. If anything, the service station stop on a 400 miles drive actually becomes simpler: there’s no need to drive between the car park (for coffee and pee) and the petrol station. Point is (which I could have made more clearly in my first comment), if the home-charging without a driveway issue can be solved and the infrastructure is rolled out (be interesting to hear if Tim feels there’s any reason why the market won’t oblige with this), the laws of physics don’t really present a problem. Mr Ecks December 3, 2020 at 4:17 pm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXq29amF-yE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AewbIMYprS0 Noel C December 3, 2020 at 4:35 pm “The grail would be some way of synthesising petrol/diesel from the air, by extracting CO2 and water vapour. Could use renewables to do it.” The Sabatier process using CO2 and H2 gets you methane, which you can easily run an IC engine off (LNG conversions were a big thing 20 years ago). Could well be a better option than battery cars long term, but we will never know given the future ban on IC engines Ian Reid December 3, 2020 at 6:23 pm One thing I like to point out is that this ICE ban is not universal. The White Europeans driving this are in a demographic death spiral, and in Africa for instance it is entirely possible that 2bn children or more will be born during the rest of this century. The population of Germany, the most populous country in the EU, is really just a rounding error in these estimates. Can you foresee a viable electricity infrastructure being in place in Africa to allow for everyone to have an EV? No they’re all going to be driving ICE vehicles. Just look at any news report from Africa, there are millions of people riding around on small motorbikes. They want mobility like anyone else, and they’ll get it. The people pushing this nonsense are simply stark raving bonkers. Bathroom Moose December 3, 2020 at 6:30 pm >use it as a chimney Just as the atmosphere doesn’t float off into space when it’s not inside a chimney, gas only goes up a chimney as far as you can ram it up against the force of gravity. You can demonstrate this in science class by filling a tube up with water, capping one end up then carrying it up the middle of the stairwell. Eventually you reach a height (about four flights, IIRC) where the one atmosphere of pressure pushing on the open end can no-longer push the water, and a vacuum forms above that height. The gas in a chimney would do the same thing, except at the height of the atmosphere. This is also how mercury barometers work. It’s possible you could use a chimney extending past geostationary as a “sprinkler” to fling the gasses outwards, but I don’t think they will be sufficiently viscous for gas above the geostationary height to be able to pull the gas between there and the atmosphere. Some kind of bucket chain would work though, provided there’s more gas-filled buckets above the geostationary point than below it. Andrew Again December 3, 2020 at 6:34 pm Madness. Having been stuck in a queue for petrol at a French motorway service station for 20+ mins just because of the sheer volume of cars I can’t imagine what the delay would be if each car needed 30 mins at the ‘pump’ instead of 5. Also with 12+ pumps with 120kW that’s 1.44MW needed at once. None of your electrician “diversity” there. I am assuming 1.44MW needs a big wire, a very big wire. bloke in spain December 3, 2020 at 6:38 pm @ Off greenie ” if the home-charging without a driveway issue can be solved” And there you have the elephant in the room. The cabling laid in every street in the country was laid to cope with electricity consumption when the cables were laid. Many of them now are near to their design limits because there’s a lot more electrical equipment in houses than there was even 20 years ago. They were not laid in the anticipation of superimposing car charging on top of normal domestic loads. Any idea what’s involved in digging up every street in the country? Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 7:45 pm @bis I’m not convinced the capacity of the local grids is that big a problem. A fast home charger is c7kW / 32A, I believe. People’s average mileage is about 20 miles (in normal years!) so people should only need to charge with one of those for an average of about an hour and a bit per night per car. At 32A, if everyone in a neighborhood charged at once it could possibly be a problem. Not sure. My oven is on a 32A circuit and my home supply is rated at 50A, I think. I don’t hear of grids going down because everyone’s cooking at the same time. I’d think it would probably enough to encourage most people to do their charging overnight so it’s not coinciding with peak use of, well, ovens. The grid could go one further and encourage people to charge during staggered windows or at a lower power setting. Both very straightforward with smart meters and smart chargers using pricing mechanisms: agree to let us control when your car charges each night and we’ll still guarantee it gets charged to the level you want but we’ll give you a couple of quid off a month. Easy. And of course it’s probably 10 years plus before it starts to be a major issue so there’s time to upgrade local infrastructure where needed. The bigger problem, in my view, is physically connecting to something if you don’t have a set parking place, let alone a garage. There’s people working on this (see below) but I’ve not seen anything that looks like it’s there yet. Those with more faith than me in the magic of the unseen hand should presumably be comforted by the thought that the collective ingenuity of the free market will find viable solutions. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scotsman.com/business/scottish-firm-secures-millions-revolutionise-electric-car-market-flat-and-flush-chargers-2886638%3famp Re “there’s a lot more electrical equipment in houses”, see here: https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/5-myths-about-electric-vehicles-busted Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 8:04 pm @Andrew Again Hmm. If I’m reading the following correctly, one of the bundles of 4 wires you see on an electricity pilon is up to 3820MVA. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/46976/download&ved=2ahUKEwjhgJGWzLLtAhU4ThUIHSmPDegQFjAMegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw0w9WE0oLg48ilc62GSIvTR At this point, we need the Power Factor to get from MVA to MW, and I start to struggle a bit. Someone here will (no doubt gleefully) correct me if I’m wrong, but the following seems to suggest that 0.9 is realistic for an EV charger. https://chargedevs.com/features/a-closer-look-at-power-factor-correction/ Using 0.5 to be conservative suggests that you’d get 1410MW from each of those four bundles of wires. As the National Grid says in the link above, power lines often run along motorways. But then, National Grid is of course part of the conspiracy… Bloke in North Dorset December 3, 2020 at 8:12 pm “ Any idea what’s involved in digging up every street in the country?” Spud’s already dealt with that problem with his insulation plan. All you do is close you’re eyes tightly, say green jobs, green jobs, while you spin round 3 times, them wave your hands in the air and hey, presto! Andre Again, Yep, pretty big cables. Think about the problem when they allowed refuelling of F1 cars and the size of the pipe. Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 8:25 pm @Andrew Again, Actually, another interesting thought you pose with your French filling station example: I wonder what proportion of the people on the queue were on a 200+ mile journey. Given that people (I assume) generally just fill up with petrol/diesel when they get quite low, wherever they happen to be at the time, it’s very possible that a good proportion of them were only doing relatively short journeys, for which you would almost never stop to charge an EV because you’d normally charge at home. Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 9:40 pm Reading the relevant bit of the National Grid’s techie paper again, it looks like it’s “only” about 7640MVA per pilon route. About 30,000+ ultra fast chargers? Enough to cope with a bank holiday exodus to Cornwall? I dunno. But then Cornwall is less than 300 miles from London, which will almost certainly be within the range of most EVs by the time they account for more than half the cars on the road (if they ever do). If this is a conspiracy to restrict “freedom of movement” (interesting choice of words for a site full of people who mostly voted to … oh, never mind), it’s pretty half-arsed. Im December 3, 2020 at 10:16 pm The average electric battery in cars being produced now does at least 150 miles. On a 150w charger that can be charged to 80% in under half an hour. Tesla cars are far exceeding that range and 300w chargers are already being rolled out. Electricity is also be delivered directly to your house, unlike petrol. If you don’t have off street parking chargers are already being put in lamposts. So no one ever really needs to leave the house without a full battery. Much of the charging can and is be done at night when demand for electricity. The demand on the grid can be made smoother. So our reliance on green energy is an overstated problem, although I am in favour of fracking, gas and nuclear power. By 2030 it’s fair to assume that battery technology has improved further in both capacity and charging speed so it is unlikely that range of one charge or the ability to find a quick charger on a long drive will be a problem. Battery replacements/exchanges at the roadside is just a stupid idea as it assumes battery tech won’t get any better. I have literally no idea what the grids capacity to deliver the required energy would be and more importantly how that would be achieved, but thats the only real issue I can see. I’ll await someone on here to call me a cunt for that view and then not back it up with any substantial argument Andy ex-Taiwan December 3, 2020 at 10:20 pm Tim the Coder mentioned Bob Zubrin, he had a book out on this topic a few years ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Victory) which offered an interesting alternative (IIRC he talked about Methanol made from wood chippings as an alternative to using crops for fuel). There was also a firm around 10 years ago called Changing World Technologies that had a process for breaking down waste into fuels, not sure if they’re still around (their website hasn’t been updated for 3 years) PF December 3, 2020 at 10:55 pm “Having been stuck in a queue for petrol at a French motorway service station for 20+ mins” “Actually, another interesting thought you pose with your French filling station example: I wonder what proportion of the people on the queue were on a 200+ mile journey. Given that people (I assume) generally just fill up with petrol/diesel when they get quite low, wherever they happen to be at the time, it’s very possible that a good proportion of them were only doing relatively short journeys” Not really. French autoroutes are usually tolls. The petrol stations get extremely busy at peak times (holidays with long drives etc). They are also expensive (captive market) and hence only used if doing a long trip, otherwise people will fill up once they are off them (at either end). Off-greenie December 3, 2020 at 11:26 pm @PF Yeah. OK. I can see that’s plausible. The question then becomes (crudely): if the ultra fast charger takes 10x as long as the gasoil pump, will the service stations invest in at least 10x as many charge points? Possibly. I’d expect the capex for a charge point is significantly less and the running costs are much lower (no moving parts, no flammable liquids to worry about, etc), near-zero land use as you have the parking space anyway. Plus the whole family gets out to buy over-priced croissants. Takes 10x as long to generate about the same amount of direct revenue, but your gross margin is surely much bigger. I can’t imagine a petrol stations’ gross margins are big, but Tesla charges over double domestic ‘leccy rates, and they’re presumably buying in at significantly lower rates than that. So, as the demand grows … maybe. The question is, even given the above, how much of the peak holiday demand it pays for them to invest to meet. Pcar December 3, 2020 at 11:34 pm @Chernyy_Drakon Battery swap would only work if every make & model had same battery in same place Also, batteries are now being used as part of chassis – same as ‘stressed’ engines and gearboxes. @Off-greenie Why would I want to stop for 20-60 minutes every 200 miles? When I work in London for a week or two I often do a 450 mile non-stop drive – (8pm to ~1.30am) . The plan, as others say, is deprive public from personal transport – all part of The Great Reset (2030) Here’s Sunak’s WEF speech https://youtu.be/CoCYYVmDbMU?t=5527 Gamecock December 4, 2020 at 12:00 am “By 2030 it’s fair to assume that battery technology has improved further in both capacity and charging speed so it is unlikely that range of one charge or the ability to find a quick charger on a long drive will be a problem.” Furious research has gone on for decades. We are into steep diminishing returns. It is NOT “fair to assume” there will be any significant new development. “So no one ever really needs to leave the house without a full battery.” I’ve never been anywhere the lampposts were dense enough to charge every car around. If people CHOOSE an electric car, planning on how they are going to charge it, then they could succeed. Government banning petrol cars is not the path to success. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 12:57 am @Pcar I guess current electric cars aren’t for you then. Shrug. @Gamecock I tend to agree with you that banning ICE cars isn’t the way forward. If anything, it may hold back development of EVs. For one thing, there’s less incentive to develop a car with a 450 mile range for people who think doing that in one go is a good idea, because those people will just be forced to have a stop or two if ICE is banned and 300 mile EV range is all that’s available. Baron Jackfield December 4, 2020 at 11:41 am One gets the impression that the “range” figures bandied-about by the EV lobby are as respectable as the CO2 figures from some of our German colleagues. Yeah, an EV can have a quoted range of 250+ miles – achievable, no doubt, on a warm, dry day at gentle cruising-speeds. But what if it’s freezing-cold, dark and pissing-down with rain and you need to keep up with the flow on the motorway? I’ve seen virtually no quoted figures for the range that’s achievable in “more realistic” conditions (for the UK). Anybody got any ideas? Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 12:17 pm @BJ Assuming you’re looking for a bit more detail than the various magazines’ sites “real world” test reports that are easily found via Google … try abetterrouteplanner.com. Lets you play around with different variables like temperature, load, wet roads etc. etc. I’ll let you do your own research on how reliable the numbers are, but based on a quick glance at a Tesla owners’ forum they seem to generally rate the numbers. Probably safe to assume they have more data for Tesla than for other brands, so your mileage mileage may vary! Mr Ecks December 4, 2020 at 12:40 pm A big FO to all EV fans–save on-board recharging from a small petrol jenny which has potential from tests to poss enable 150 MPG. The ICE ban isn’t going to stand. The forces of evil will have won if it does–barring on-board recharge as above or fantastic new tech. The ecos want cars gone not some way for them to survive. By 2030 I’ll be getting on towards my time to go. I’m content to avoid the “kindness” of NHS death and do some damage to even a few globo elite or their servants. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 1:09 pm Yeah. People who like cars that are greener, faster, quieter, more spacious, often cheaper to own and keep improving faster than the alternatives. Those dicks can just fuck right off. Bloke on M4 December 4, 2020 at 1:21 pm Off-greenie, “I guess current electric cars aren’t for you then. Shrug.” I don’t really understand who they are for, especially Teslas. They cost about £42K and look like a Mazda 3. With the £20K that you save buying a Mazda 3, you can buy about 100,000 miles. The Mazda is going to last 15+ years. They aren’t even that green. With the extra energy required to produce them, you have to do 50,000 to break even. This ain’t even much about “green”, but I work from home and got rid of my car in favour of bus, foot, cabs, bike and trains. Jim December 4, 2020 at 2:10 pm “If this is a conspiracy to restrict “freedom of movement” (interesting choice of words for a site full of people who mostly voted to … oh, never mind), it’s pretty half-arsed.” Try telling that to the millions of people for whom a car that costs more than a few thousand pounds is out of their reach. Its the cost thats going to drive millions off the road, and thats the whole point of it. Gamecock December 4, 2020 at 2:54 pm “People who like cars that are greener, faster, quieter, more spacious, often cheaper to own and keep improving faster than the alternatives.” o Greener Define ‘greener,’ and explain why that is something to strive for. o Faster Other than short track acceleration, they are NOTORIOUSLY SLOW. 45 minute breaks on a trip isn’t “fast.” o Quieter WAT? Above 20 mph, an electric car sounds like any other. Except for my GT350R, car sound is tire and wind noise, not drive train. o More spacious ??? That’s just goofy. o Cheaper to own Again, that is preposterously false. o Keep improving faster Meaning what? They suck, but they are getting better faster than the ones that don’t suck? Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 3:05 pm @bom4 It may (subjectively) look like a Mazda 3 but it (partially subjectively) drives like a fairly (at least) high-end BMW 3-series and is typically compared to cars in that class by motor journalists. Looking at leasing rates from Hitachi Capital, because leasing rates take into account expected depreciation and other running costs – essentially approximating cost of ownership minus fuel/leccy: base model Tesla 3 is the same price as a 330i M Sport or a 320D MHT Sport. The Tesla is a little quicker than the petrol, a fair bit quicker than the diesel and will cost significantly less in energy. It’s also got a roomier interior than the 3 series, I believe, due to smaller powerplant etc. That’s before company car BIK rates, which will make the Tesla up to about 40% cheaper. Of course, some people regularly drive 450 miles in one go (!!) but, for those who don’t but nevertheless do a chunky mileage and want a compact exec, it’s surely a viable option. Re “not that green”. Given average scrappage life of a car is 106k miles and batteries are generally guaranteed for 100 miles, if carbon breakeven point is halfway through that life that certainly seems to justify the use of “greener” to describe them. (Also, I wonder whether the 50k breakeven takes into account future use of the batteries for grid services after the car is scrapped.) Chris Miller December 4, 2020 at 3:44 pm @lm By 2030 it’s fair to assume that battery technology has improved further in both capacity and charging speed so it is unlikely that range of one charge or the ability to find a quick charger on a long drive will be a problem. Only if there’s some development in electrochemistry that we’re currently unaware of. Li-ion batteries are close to the limits (energy density and recharge times) of what we presently know to be physically possible, and lithium is used (despite being chemically seriously nasty stuff) because it’s the last element at the far end of the electrochemical series – there’s nowhere else to go. This is why batteries (despite billions spent on research every year) have only improved fractionally over the last decade or so – despite there being trillions awaiting someone who can make a battery that would fit in a phone/laptop and deliver twice the battery life. Magical thinking will not alter these facts. PS You’re a cunt. Chris Miller December 4, 2020 at 4:00 pm @Off-greenie Government subsidies are the only real reason (other, perhaps, than virtue signalling – they aren’t called a Toyota Pious for mothing) to own an EV, and they’ve been diminishing every year. They’ll diminish even further when we hit the new austerity next year. There are quite a few EV owners round here (leafy Chilterns) and I run a PHEV (for the subsidies – see above), but everybody who owns one also has a real car for longer journeys – how ‘green’ is that? I keep a close track of my electric and petrol miles (because I’m a nerd) and I can see that petrol miles cost me 3x as much as electric ones, a difference easily explained by the 200% tax on petrol – how long do you expect that to continue once EVs form a significant portion of the UK vehicle fleet? My plug-in hybrid allows me to do about 90% of my trips (and about half my total mileage) on electric power, without the range anxiety that a pure electric entails. Like most hybrids it doesn’t (when running in that mode) deliver any better mpg than a conventional car. jgh December 4, 2020 at 4:13 pm “If you don’t have off street parking chargers are already being put in lamposts.” Which requires digging up the pavements and putting heavier cables in. Have you ever looked inside a lamppost? Or even just given a thought to how much power a light needs? Most of them are wired up with 100-year-old bell wire, you can’t “just” put a charger in a lamppost. Yes, you can install lamp-post-shaped car chargers, but that’s new infrastructure with new power cables with new trenches in the pavement. And every eight feet instead of every 100 feet. And that’s before getting to the issue of working out who is tapping that electricity and so who to charge for it. Bloke in Wales December 4, 2020 at 4:36 pm Yeah. People who like cars that are greener, faster, quieter, more spacious, often cheaper to own and keep improving faster than the alternatives. Those dicks can just fuck right off. It’s not the people that like cars to be faster or quieter that are the problem. It’s the cunts that are trying to outlaw ICE cars for the rest of us that can fuck right off. And if those faster and quieter cars were good enough, they wouldn’t have to ban ICE cars because everyone would naturally move to the better option. The bansturbation is an admission that electric cars just aren’t there yet (if ever). When an electric car can pull a fully laden horse box for 500 miles between 5-minute refills, I might consider one. Bloke on M4 December 4, 2020 at 4:44 pm Off-greenie, “It may (subjectively) look like a Mazda 3 but it (partially subjectively) drives like a fairly (at least) high-end BMW 3-series and is typically compared to cars in that class by motor journalists.” If you really like a fast car, that’s a good reason. Personally, I don’t really get it today because the roads are busy, littered with speed cameras. Even if it means you can overtake a few things on a country road, it barely makes any difference. Mostly, I’m done with cars because of how much less that I drive. Without a regular commute, more work from home, everything being delivered, I’m down to 1-2K/year. It’s barely worth me taxing, insuring and servicing a banger, let alone spending £20K on something new. The bus might take a little longer to get to the barber, but I only go once a month. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 5:12 pm @Bloke in Wales To be fair, my comment ending in “fuck off” was in response to Ecks’s “big FO ALL EV fans” (emphasis added – maybe I misinterpreted what the “FO” stood for, but I doubt it), not just to the ones who want to ban ICE cars (which I’ve already said I don’t). “And if those faster and quieter cars were good enough, they wouldn’t have to ban ICE cars because everyone would naturally move to the better option. The bansturbation is an admission that electric cars just aren’t there yet (if ever).” Actually, I think the ban is the opposite … of an admission that they NEVER will. I think the government thinks market forces would mean non-ICE sales would be outstripping ICE sales within 10 years anyway (even if it is probably unlikely that ICE said would be killed off by then without intervention). By imposing the ban (which will no doubt be watered down/extended before then) they can give the market a bit of a nudge in the direction the is going anyway then claim credit among voters who care. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 5:21 pm @Chris Miller Government subsidies: yup, you’re right. I wouldn’t be considering getting a Tesla next year were it not for the low BIK rates on it as a company car. As the price of EVs continues to come down, though, they’ll eventually reach parity or near-parity even without subsidies, especially when the lower cost of ownership is taken into account. We’ve seen exactly the same with domestic solar panels and commercial onshore wind farms. Like them or (as I suspect many here might) loathe them, from a pure economics point of view, they now (just about) pay for themselves without direct subsidies. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 5:35 pm @Chris Miller Interesting stuff re the periodic table etc. You say batteries have only improved fractionally in the last decade or so. Does that mean this article about energy density trebling is untrue? (Also @Gamecock re “steep diminishing returns. In what sense do you mean and how is that reconciled to this?) https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/amp/ Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 5:40 pm @Jim “Try telling that to the millions of people for whom a car that costs more than a few thousand pounds is out of their reach. Its the cost thats going to drive millions off the road, and thats the whole point of it” People who can only spend a few thousand pounds on a car mean people in the second-hand market, right? There’s still going to be plenty of second hand ICE cars on the market for a good ten years after the ban, which is, I believe, on new cars only. The usual market forces will ensure that second-hand EV prices fall to that sort of level long before that. Current Tesla-type residuals can’t hold up for the long-term. (Another reason why, if I do get one, I’ll be renting not buying. Let someone else take that risk.) Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 6:18 pm @BIW “When an electric car can pull a fully laden horse box for 500 miles between 5-minute refills, I might consider one” I know I’ve responded to the comment that’s from before, but … really? You really want to be able to do a 1000 mile trip with only one 5 minute stop, … with horses(!), that badly? Why? I’m genuinely curious as to why you would insist on that sort of capability before even “considering” one (the implication being that even a lower risk cost of ownership wouldn’t sway you from that requirement). Also, I’m not a horse person but … is that even legal and stuff? Again, genuinely interested: how much lower would the total cost of ownership of the EV have to be before you’d consider, say, a 30 minute stop every 250 miles? (Buggered if I can sit in a car for more than 200 miles without needing a decent break but I’m probably a tree-hugging Remoaner pussy or something.) If the answer is still none then, sure, there will probably never be an EV that fits that requirement. These sort of objections do rather remind me of Dawkins’s ‘God of the gaps’… Gamecock December 4, 2020 at 7:00 pm “a 30 minute stop every 250 miles” Assuming an empty charger is there waiting for you to use it every 250 miles. And assuming, rather optimistically, that it only takes 30 minutes. Lines in petrol stations move every few minutes. The charging station line won’t move for 45 minutes. Setting out on the open road in an EV is a leap of faith. A trip that used to take 5 hours could take days. “Buggered if I can sit in a car for more than 200 miles without needing a decent break” Rationalizing the irrational. MrKing December 4, 2020 at 7:03 pm @ Off-your-head-on-the-greenie-weed Chances are if EVs don’t take off the banstibators will get rid of the second hand ICE market in revenge to give people no choice. EVs will definitely come down in price when the battery pack is fucked. Not much point in a buying a £1k Tesla than needs £10k of batteries installing. Tim the Coder December 4, 2020 at 9:02 pm “Second-hand car sales will still be allowed.” Any minimum mileage? I bought my last car ‘second-hand’ with 10 miles on the clock. All the car dealers need to do is some preregistration and/or import cars registered abroad – somewhere will allow this for a suitable incentive. Ban imports of cars? WTO rules…. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 11:39 pm @GC “Lines in petrol stations move every few minutes. The charging station line won’t move for 45 minutes.” Thing is, though, the “charging station” will look very different from the petrol station. See my comment on the investment case for chargers above. If and when the EVs take over, I’d expect half the parking spaces in a service station car park to have hook-ups. Unseen hand and all that. Given the prior existence of the national grid it’s a fairly trivial problem compared to the faced by early adopters of ICE cars before the widespread adoption of petrol stations … and decent roads … yet they seem to have done pretty well. “Assuming an empty charger is there waiting for you to use it every 250 miles. And assuming, rather optimistically, that it only takes 30 minutes.” Well, that’s the general experience of Tesla drivers at the moment, and that’s with a near-monopoly of motorway chargepoints for their use. So without even the full caresses of the unseen hand… “Rationalizing the irrational.” Whereas people saying they wouldn’t buy a car that doesn’t let them drive for 14 hours with only a 5 minute break in the middle is, of course, the epitome of rationality? Am I really that much of an outlier if I find driving non-stop for over 3 hours unpleasant? The most I can recall doing is about 4.5, in my 20s, and that was quite miserable. I’m taller than most, though, so it may well be that the consequent discomfort means I really am an outlier on this. Off-greenie December 4, 2020 at 11:57 pm @MrKing “Not much point in a buying a £1k Tesla than needs £10k of batteries installing.” Err. Right now that would probably be a bargain. You’ve seen the residuals on those things, right? £11k for one with new batteries? Nice! Off-greenie December 5, 2020 at 12:11 am @Tim Interesting point. I think WTO rules would let UKG put punitive tariffs on ICE car imports though, wouldn’t they? If I’m right that the ban is only really likely to hasten the inevitable, and possibly only marginally, most people probably won’t want an ICE car by 2030 anyway, and I suspect they’ll open up loopholes for certain circumstances in which people can’t satisfy particular use-cases with EVs. Perhaps tariff exemptions/reductions will play a part in this – reduced tariffs for vehicles designed to pull horse boxes, maybe? Pcar December 5, 2020 at 12:55 am @Gamecock +1 Battery tech is like nuclear fusion – always 10 years down the road @Jim +1 A Car magazine this week has “Best £500 car to buy” as cover story PF December 5, 2020 at 2:47 am Off-Greenie “Am I really that much of an outlier if I find driving non-stop for over 3 hours unpleasant?” Our mileages may differ. Irrespective, surely you are able to understand, in a free world, something that individually we call “personal choice”? The sort of stuff that makes us all much richer. I appreciate that’s not necessarily a green type consideration? Bloke in Wales December 5, 2020 at 8:41 am I know I’ve responded to the comment that’s from before, but … really? You really want to be able to do a 1000 mile trip with only one 5 minute stop, … with horses I didn’t say “in one go”. And I didn’t say “with horses”, but the weight I tend to pull could be similar. And no, I’m not a pikey or a caravanner. In my own case I tend to travel to the middle of nowhere for a weekend (think festivals), where there’s unlikely to even be a fuel station so the chances of a charging point nearby will be minimal. And even if there were a charging point, there wouldn’t be time between arrival and departure to get everyone recharged. Off-greenie December 5, 2020 at 9:06 am @PF Yup. Of course. That’s one of the reasons why, as I’ve said several times, I don’t agree with the ban. To summarise/reframe the main points on which I differ from most of those who have waded in above: – ban or no ban, these sorts of mileage issues, and concerns about grid capacity, won’t be barriers to EVs catching on in the long-term. The only genuine potential barriers I can see are the the charging at home problem for people without allocated parking spaces and possibly the availability of some of the raw materials for the batteries on the scale that will be required to meet that sort of demand. However, I’d expect the market to solve both of these problems. – the prices of new and second hand EVs should continue to fall significantly; that, plus relative falls in total cost of ownership, will mean that people will increasingly exercise their freedom of choice by getting one, even before the ban comes into force. – as such, the idea that the ban (which I still don’t agree with) is part of a conspiracy to get people off the road is just laughable. I think it’s mainly political window-dressing so the Tories can take credit for a transition that’s likely to happen anyway. The freedom of choice objection to the ban is a valid one. Many, if not most, of the concerns about whether the technology is viable aren’t, and often seem to me to stem partly from prejudice because that technology is seen to be associated with a certain world-view. Why else would someone resort to arguing that they need a car that allows them to do drives that push the boundaries of human endurance? Off-greenie December 5, 2020 at 9:21 am @BIW No, you didn’t say “in one go”, but you said you needed the car to be able to go 500 miles between (5 minute) charges. If you don’t want to be able to do that in one go, why is lack of that capability a deal-breaker for you? I’d be very surprised if there are festivals in the UK that are more than 100 miles from a charge point and no doubt in years to come many will have slow charge facilities for overnight top-ups. Bloke in Wales December 5, 2020 at 9:36 am 250 miles to get to the destination without a guarantee of being able to refuel once there, 250 miles home. Is that so difficult to work out? And why would I want to add a minimum 30 minutes of sitting around to an already long journey? Off-greenie December 5, 2020 at 12:33 pm @BIW Sigh. What’s difficult to work out is why it’s also necessary to charge in five minutes in between these 500-mile round trips, which is what you originally specified. The 500-mile round trip without charging is understandable. (Refusing to contemplate a car that requires a 20-minute stop on each c4 hour or more leg, without even considering what other benefits it might have, particularly cost of ownership, does seem a bit odd to me, if that’s what you meant, but that of course is – and should remain – your choice.) I also accept that there may always be some destinations at which it’s not possible to charge, even if these will reduce. I have little doubt that the technology will make 500-mile range possible in a few years, though – see the thing about energy density trebling over the last 10 years and there’s already a Tesla capable of 380 – even towing. If there’s enough demand for that capability, EVs with it will become affordable over time. …but, no, if you really need/want to also do the charges before and after that 500-mile trip in 5 minutes, EVs will almost certainly never get there. It will always be possible to come up with use cases that can’t be satisfied with any technology, and some of those use cases might even be ones that a material number of people will have a genuine requirement/desire for. The question is whether there will be enough people with those requirements to prevent widespread adoption of that technology, even without government banning the main alternative. It seems highly unlikely to me in this case (subject, again, to the point about charging at home without a designated space). MrKing December 5, 2020 at 1:06 pm “Err. Right now that would probably be a bargain. You’ve seen the residuals on those things, right? £11k for one with new batteries? Nice!” Not everyone has £11k (or much more) to buy the bloody thing. Poor people have a grand – how much EV will that get them once the ICE cars have gone? There won’t be a second hand market in refurbished batteries (unlike replacement ICE engines) because the manufacturers will have lobbied the politicians to allow vendor software locks to avoid any unexpected rapid energy release (fires) etc. So you’ll be stuck buying them at an inflated price. Bloke in Wales December 5, 2020 at 5:37 pm Sigh. What’s difficult to work out is why it’s also necessary to charge in five minutes in between these 500-mile round trips, which is what you originally specified. Because that’s what I can do now. Why would I deliberately choose a worse option? john77 December 5, 2020 at 5:55 pm Yesterday I had to fetch my younger son and some stuff from Lancaster and my wife insisted that we drop by my elder son in Chester on the way home. When I took the van back this morning the guy said 531 miles of which less than 8 was getting from the depot to home and back. If I want to see my remaining sister in Glasgow that’s nearly 400 miles each way. I do not find it unreasonable to be able to travel that far without depending on finding a recharging whose whereabouts are unknown that is open after dark and/or on a Sunday Mark December 5, 2020 at 7:28 pm “Because that’s what I can do now. Why would I deliberately choose a worse option?” Like any sensible person with an ounce of critical faculty you wouldn’t which is why they need to try and force it on you. Pcar December 5, 2020 at 11:23 pm @Off-Greenie “energy density trebling over the last 10 years“ I call BS on that “Am I really that much of an outlier if I find driving non-stop for over 3 hours unpleasant?” Among my friends and colleagues: Yes Many people have long – 100-200 miles each way – daily commutes by car if train etc not practical Last interview I had was 253 miles, ~1 hour interview, 249 miles back For leisure, fast cars/bikes can easily cover 200-300 miles in a Sunday afternoon run. My evening fun is often a fast ride ~100 miles, 50-55 minutes (max @ 175mph) EVs, Buses sound great to townies who never drive far and assume everyone is same. Recharge time & delay – time is money . As @PF says: Choice, Freedom Finally, if one runs out of petrol, can in boot to top-up or thumb lift Pcar December 5, 2020 at 11:24 pm Good piece on charging https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/electric-spaghetti-in-cable-street-the-madness-of-boriss-green-car-scheme/ and destruction https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/going-green-risks-destroying-the-british-car-industry-for-a-whim/ Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 10:26 am @BIW “Because that’s what I can do now. Why would I deliberately choose a worse option?” The cost of the energy for the journey is about a third. Most consumers would look at that benefit as well as the inability to recharge within 5 minutes. Unless they would have a use case that actually requires such turnaround times, they would conclude that, in the round, it’s a better option. Tim Worstall December 6, 2020 at 10:35 am How very cool. As most consumers would so choose then we’ve no need to force them, through legislation, do we? The insistence upon legislation is proof that we don’t think that most consumers will so choose of course…. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 10:57 am There’s surveys saying 75% of consumers would like one … but prices, etc. Agreed that we don’t need to and shouldn’t ban ICE cars, but the insistence on legislation – to the extent it’s a government attempt to actually influence the market, rather than just a play to be seen to take action by mandating something that will happen anyway – is proof that we don’t think they’d make that choice WITHIN TEN YEARS. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 11:13 am “Not everyone has £11k (or much more) to buy the bloody thing. Poor people have a grand – how much EV will that get them once the ICE cars have gone?” My comment about the £11k Tesla was a facetious one about your choice of numbers, rather than a serious attempt to address your actual point. Thought that would have been clear – sorry if it wasn’t. I’d expect it’ll be about the same amount of car they get at the moment, by the time EVs have taken over (if they ever do). Simple supply and demand. The reason the second hand prices are so high at the moment is because the ratio of demand to supply for them is much higher than for ICE equivalents. If and when millions of second hand EVs come into the market each year that will change and the prices will come down (especially if falling new prices put negative pressure on changeover prices, making it easier for new buyers to take lower prices for their old ones). What are you seeing that would prevent this, which I’m not? Tim Worstall December 6, 2020 at 12:24 pm We’re seeing that a new battery pack is going to cost £x thousands. In a manner that we don’t go and put a new ICE in an old vehicle, but must in an EV. The Meissen Bison December 6, 2020 at 12:36 pm Pcar: Last interview I had was 253 miles, ~1 hour interview, 249 miles back That’s a lot – why didn’t you just email them a few links instead? 🙂 Bongo December 6, 2020 at 12:51 pm A couple of times in a previous life I flew into LAX and drove to Las Vegas with a single break in Baker. I asked a receptionist if this was common and was told no. Many Angelenos will get off work early on a Friday and do the drive of the weekend gambler/whoremonger in one hit. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 3:30 pm @Pcar “I call BS on that” And if you can tell me what’s BS about the Bloomberg data I linked to above then I’ll happily consider that new information. In the meantime, looking at that graph again, I think it’s the energy density getting achieved in labs, rather than commercialised, because the graph is showing energy density of 300 Wh/kg whereas I believe Tesla (which I assume is the leader) is getting about 160-180. That suggests plenty of headroom to commercialise batteries that will allow 500 mile ranges no problem. Panasonic are talking about 20% increases within the next five years and Musk (whose Tweets can, of course, always be believed!!) Is talking about 50% over that timescale. 25% should be ample for automotive applications. Curiously, the rest of your comment is a bunch of examples that are all within the capabilities of current EVs (and not all even above my own 3-hour unpleasantness threshold). Yes, these are cars that are expensive now, but that capability will of course come down in price. The most challenging is probably the interview. I’m not sure where it was, but I’d suspect if it wasn’t close to a fast charger point now it will be in 10 years’ time. No doubt you’re going to tell me it’s on a remote farm or something. If that’s the case, one of the journeys you’ve mentioned, in a sample specifically chosen to demonstrate that EVs are no good and never will be, would take about 10 minutes longer on current-available technology – assuming you’d have to stop to put 100 miles extra in on the way back. Most consumers will, I expect, be willing to accept such minor inconvenience given the other advantages. And “most consumers” is the point. I don’t have to convince you and your friends/colleagues – the manufacturers only have to (sans ban) convince most consumers. Hope the interview went well, by the way. “Townies” You’ll have to enlighten a townie like me: why do people who live in the country have a greater need to do more, say, 200+ mile non-stop journeys than townies do? They’re also more likely to have allocated parking so home charging is easier. “If one runs out of petrol, can in boot to top-up or thumb lift” How often do people run out of petrol? I never have (touch wood) in 20+ years of (yeah, yeah, townie) driving. Is there really reason to think people are going to run out of juice more with EVs once there’s more range and more infrastructure and everyone’s used to them? For the rare occasions, the AA etc will of course have roadside boost capability in their vans, if they don’t already. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 4:18 pm @TW “we don’t go and put a new ICE in an old vehicle, but must [replace the battery] in an EV. Why? Most of the EV manufacturers are offering 100k mile+ warranties. Hyundai’s is 125k. That’s on current technology! I’ve found it hard to come by reliable figures for the scrappage mileage of cars. Someone in a forum has referenced a Sunday Times article that quotes 106k. That’s probably mean; median or even mode would no doubt be more appropriate. A quick search on Autotrader shows plenty of cars, some not tiny, with less than 70k miles, recent MOT, etc etc for about a grand. That’s just over half the mileage Hyundai is warrantying its batteries for, on current technology. Having pondered the second-hand market point a bit more while I was on a bike ride earlier (people round here LOVE me!), to the extent this is a debate about whether, absent a ban, ICE cars will cede their dominance, I’m tending towards the view that it’s irrelevant whether people will be able to buy cheap second hand EVs anyway. In this future, all that counts is manufacturers and new buyers. I can’t see that the requirements of people looking for very cheap second-hand cars will materially impact that market, particularly if, as I suspect, the vast majority of £1k cars have more than one previous owner. The future need to sell into this market in over a decade’s time surely doesn’t even register in the new buyers’ decision-making. If you’re in the market for £1k second hand cars in a world where the new car market has moved to a place that means there aren’t any, that’s just going to be tough. Red in tooth and claw and all that. The market will no doubt solve the personal transportation problem for that end of the market, though: autonomous Ubers; some kind of rental options for mid-life cars; those sorts of things. I still think there probably will end up being cheap second-hand EVs. The main serious threat I see to this is that scrap value might be much higher due to demand for ex-automotive batteries for grid services – although V2G may obviate this – or for the raw materials. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 4:29 pm @Bongo I don’t understand your point. LAX to LV is only 287 miles. Fairly comfortably within current technology range. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 4:33 pm @john77 “I do not find it unreasonable to be able to travel that far without depending on finding a recharging whose whereabouts are unknown that is open after dark and/or on a Sunday” It’s lucky the cars tell you where they are then. Why on earth would Sunday make any difference? Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 4:38 pm @Mark “Like any sensible person with an ounce of critical faculty you wouldn’t which is why they need to try and force it on you.” Any sensible person would use their critical faculty to weigh up what’s more important: Still being able to refill in 5 minutes Vs Being able to refill significantly cheaper (part of lower total cost of ownership) … and being able to do so at home. For most people, most of the time, there will be no stops to recharge/refuel at all. They will then ask themselves: given how I use my car, is that 5-minute ability really that important? For some, the 5-minute thing will be a deal-breaker. Fine. For most it won’t. Bongo December 6, 2020 at 5:41 pm @Off-greenie LAX to LV is ‘only 287 miles’ – Angelenos making this trip will start their journey from home with some clothes nibbles and drink in the car, go to office or construction site, then drive to LV, and then follow the sat-nav to whatever hotel they’ve booked at, shower, change, then go straight out by car again to whatever their first action of the evening is. And while you’re here, how often do you start a car journey with a truly full tank (of electrons or petrol). The ICE and the tank of fuel it takes is a remarkable and convenient product. If it really is more harmful than the alternatives, then price the difference accordingly. And if the market system doesn’t provide the filling stations you think the invisible hand will provide then use surge pricing. I bet you’d love that. Bongo December 6, 2020 at 5:57 pm @Off-greenie https://www.buyacar.co.uk/cars/economical-cars/electric-cars/726/electric-car-range-how-far-will-they-really-go-on-a-single See last table and compare it to your claim that a 287 mile range is fairly comfortable with current technology. And comfortable should mean not being expected to start your trip with a tank that is kept always to the max. Unless you have a clever definition of comfortable that is different from most. I’m used to being lied to by statists, just didn’t expect it from you. MrKing December 6, 2020 at 6:17 pm I did a search on Autotrader for cars that are less than 8 years old, have done less than 125,000 miles (to match the Hyundai warranty) and cost less than £1,500 and got 18 results with every one a super-mini. I chose £1,5000 as setting it at £1,000 only gave 2 results. Large choice for those without much to spend on a motor. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 6:44 pm @Bongo Thank you for expanding. In order for the trip you’re talking about to be beyond the single charge range of even CURRENTLY-AVAILABLE EV technology, you have to assume that (probably at least 4 out of 5 of): – the bits before and after the 287 mile main leg total over 100 miles – there’s no access to a charger while at work – the driver is unable/unwilling to plan ahead enough to top the car up before their big weekend of gambling or whoring – the hotel doesn’t have a fast charger that can put 100 miles of range in during the turnaround time. (There’s 20 mile per minute chargers in the pipeline, apparently.) – there won’t be significant range increases. This comes back to my point that, if one is sufficiently prejudiced against the technology, one will put forward increasingly niche use cases to claim it’s not viable … and assume that sufficient numbers of people will (1) find themselves in these situations enough for it to be an issue and (2) not be prepared to take the hit of a half hour stop every 2 or 3 hours to stop them catching on. “how often do you start a car journey with a truly full tank (of electrons or petrol). The ICE and the tank of fuel it takes is a remarkable and convenient product.” If I’m driving over a couple of hundred miles then I generally will because I know the diesel down the road is cheaper than I’ll get on the motorway. Not always, though … but then I don’t have a fuel pump on my driveway. Solve the charging at home problem for people without driveways and the EV becomes a similarly remarkable and convenient product, albeit in a different way. “If it really is more harmful than the alternatives, then price the difference accordingly.” My basic argument, that EVs will take over with or without an ICE ban, doesn’t rely on them being less harmful. In this thread, I’ve deliberately only referred to the environmental impacts in the context of why consumers are drawn to them. I’ve not even said that EVs SHOULD displace ICE vehicles, only that they will, even without a ban. I’m therefore reluctant to engage in this point, but I’m intrigued by what you have in mind. Are you suggesting carbon taxes? To some extent the current (temporary) subsidies for the cars, plus fuel duty, do this. “And if the market system doesn’t provide the filling stations you think the invisible hand will provide then use surge pricing. I bet you’d love that.” More expensive queue-jump chargers, you mean? It’s conceivable, but highly unlikely, I think. Why do you think the market wouldn’t provide? What do you disagree with in my chat about the economics of investing in chargers above? Seems there are already more charge SITES than petrol stations in the UK. Feeer chargers than pumps, of course, but that’s with EVs as a tiny proportion of cars on the road at present … and excludes the fact that the vast majority of the EV owners will mostly be charging at home. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 7:20 pm @Bongo Tesla model S (which I believe has been upgraded since the article was published) shows 320 miles in that. I said “fairly comfortably with current technology range”. I didn’t say “current affordable technology”. The prices will, of course, drop. As for whether “comfortable” implies not topping up before setting off, I touched on that in my last comment, which I wrote before seeing the one I’m responding to now, you’ll not be particularly surprised that I disagree. In any case, though, I said “fairly comfortably”. I think the “fairly” amply bridges the gap. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 7:25 pm @MrKing, The 8 year filter is irrelevant. Clearly, £1k car buyers aren’t buying in-warranty cars. In order to address the point Tim W made, all I had to do was demonstrate that there’s an expectation that the batteries will last 100k+ miles. The warranty terms provide evidence of that. Even if I’m wrong on that particular point (perhaps 50k batteries fall apart after 10 years – dunno, but seems unlikely; manufacturers just need to get certainty at some point after the sale), see my stuff about red in tooth and claw, above. Remember, I’m not saying EVs SHOULD take over – and I’m against banning ICE vehicles – I’m saying that they WILL. MrKing December 6, 2020 at 7:52 pm And who the hell will buy a car with a massive potential bill for failed battery pack without a warranty? People who spend a grand aren’t going to take the chance that after a few thousand miles they are left with a worthless piece of scrap Tesla. Off-greenie December 6, 2020 at 8:09 pm @MrKing What do you mean by massive potential bill? They’d only have paid a grand. Pretty much by definition, if you spend £1k on a car, you’re taking certain risks. If you mean the cost of disposing of the failed battery might fall on them, I’d be pretty confident that battery would have a positive scrap value (see above – in fact that scrap value is likely to be the most plausible reason why there might not be plenty of very cheap EVs on the market one day). Pcar December 6, 2020 at 11:54 pm @Off-Greenie “The cost of the energy for the journey is about a third.” Really? _.- “When you talk cars, it rarely turns into a chat about petrol stations – but discuss electric cars and charging inevitably crops up. … There is just one charging point – so when you need it, you’d better hope no one else does – and it is a 7KW charger that you are only allowed to use for a maximum of three hours. At that rate of charging over three hours you can add about 40 per cent to the battery of the Peugeot e208 GT that I spent the past fortnight driving … To put some context on the charging speed and costs, with that 50KW Polar charger, I have paid £5.13 to add 54 miles of range to the e208, going from 19 per cent to 60 per cent of battery in a half hour, using its Instant app service. On a separate occasion, I used the same charger, but with contactless pay-as-you-go, and I spent £9.66 to add 116 miles of range and go from 20 per cent to 84 per cent of battery in an hour. Elsewhere, with a 7KW charger, I added 25 miles of range over 1 hour 45 minutes for £1.99. In London, availability is considerably better – depending on which borough you are in – but things can also be more expensive. With a 22KW Source London charger in Kensington, I added 141 miles of range to a Renault Zoe, going from 47 per cent to 100 per cent battery over two hours at a cost of £19.62. Sticking £20 of petrol in a Renault Clio would probably get you the same mileage, if not more…. 18 Nov 2020 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8963115/ ” Consumer choice & Freedom, not Gov diktat and tax This is before Gov taxes EVs and/or their charging @Off-Greenie Lab: as I said ‘always 10 years away like fusion’ – El Reg has been reporting on this since Prius etc Interview: Manchester. Your recharge times are way off, see above Leisure: name me EV that will do a 200 mile high speed drive in 2 hours maxing at 172mph and avg 7.9mpg Townies: it’s not only 200+ non stop – 90 to office, arrive, emergency call from school/wife, drive back via x then to y , then to z. If you’ve never lived outside large urban areas you can not appreciate ‘be prepared’ and ‘range anxiety’ Infrastructure: who pays? Gov didn’t build petrol stations Run out? Easy if a road closed accident, detour due to weather esp snow. One return trip A702 was closed due to snow, >100 mile detour via Glasgow AA Boost: 7KW charger 25 miles of range after 1 hour 45 minutes. 2 Gallons petrol ~5mins Warranty: what does small print say about range? “We guarantee min 40 miles after 4 years or 100k miles, if, if, if”? Comments: You display your arrogance by your dismissive rejection of all objections, culminating in ‘who cares if no cheap SH cars, if you can’t afford a new car then walk’ Are you Ed Davey? Pcar December 6, 2020 at 11:56 pm @TMB Links are for relevant information and further reading instead of repeating it here. Some like, some don’t – no obligation to click I like them, and loathe when this: “Watched/read a good piece by Delers on xyz (but link is secret)” Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.