Doesn’t the man understand anything?
Low. Maybe one or two percent at most, with a real risk it could be negative. It will almost certainly be behind every other major economy because of Covid mismanagement and Brexit. On this conventional criteria it will be a bad year.
Why has British GDP performance been so much worse than other places? Partly, at least, because the ONS has actually been measuring performance correctly, even if differently. The fall in education delivered, for example, has been taken as a fall in GDP. This is logical but unusual. Normally government provided services are valued at their cost of provision, not value of output. So, other places with closed schools (and this isn’t the only part that ONS has been doing it to) have not recorded a fall in GDP as a result. But the UK has.
OK. This being something that is well known. Among those paying attention at least.
So, what does this mean about the relative UK performance as we all open up again? Yes, that’s right, the UK will outperform. Because for us opening up schools – ‘n’ other stuff – will be counted, directly, as an increase in GDP and it won’t be in other places.
It’s built into the very method of counting that the UK will outperform on GDP growth. And someone who wanted to say that the Tory Bastards never get anything right would be getting his excuses in now. If, that is, he knew anything about GDP accounting.