Using covid to prove how much better the world isJanuary 26, 2021 Tim WorstallHistory35 CommentsThe 20th year of no previous century would have provided a significant population of 80 year olds to die of a new pandemic. previousHang on, VAT doesn’t work that waynextOh, do catch up P³ 35 thoughts on “Using covid to prove how much better the world is” Boganboy January 26, 2021 at 10:51 am Well, I’m not 80 yet. But without modern medicine I’d probably have died about 13 years ago. Can you think of any more damning criticism of the doctors? Dodgy Geezer January 26, 2021 at 12:48 pm All of us seem to have a clock in our bodies which is set to our particular life expectancy. Once this measured time is complete, our bodies start to disintegrate, and our organs begin to fail. People may well die before this time, due to accidents or fatal diseases. People may adopt a lifestyle which causes particular damage to some organs and makes them fail earlier – being an alcoholic or a miner under poor conditions might be examples, but beyond that everyone seems to live for their allotted time. Modern medicine can now extend this time slightly, in some cases. If you are dying of a failing heart which has reached its end-date, you may get a pacemaker or a transplant. But this will not keep you going indefinitely. Like an old car which is failing, replacing parts will only work up to a point. We see this ability to keep people going beyond their time in the increase in dementia and other failures of elderly bodies. Unless and until a breakthrough is made in the understanding of the whole ageing process, which may well be built into our DNA replication code, we will still continue to die slightly before reaching 100 (on average). And the death certificate demands that we must be recognised as dying of something specific. It might as well be a coronavirus as an orthomyxovirus…… Bloke in North Dorset January 26, 2021 at 1:48 pm in most of the world there isn’t a significant population of 80 year olds to die of a new pandemic. Ironman January 26, 2021 at 2:00 pm On the other hand, at no other time and nowhere else have we had a significant population of 70 & 80-somethings demandimg children, teenagers and the young stay indoors so that I ME ME can eke out a couple more years of my miserable, creaking-gate existence. john77 January 26, 2021 at 2:30 pm @ Ironman Stop trolling – this isn’t the site for it. The ME – ME – ME generation is nowhere near 70, nor are any of those in government (or even among those elected) demanding that everyone stays indoors. John B January 26, 2021 at 2:58 pm Current Government policies… CoVid & climate change … are aimed at making sure no future century will provide a significant population of 80 year olds. Back to the land. dearieme January 26, 2021 at 3:07 pm Depends what you mean by “significant”. In other words, signifying what? Ironman January 26, 2021 at 3:11 pm John77 Trolling? Am I? Would your average 16-year-old or student right now thubk I was trolling, or might they be imclined to agree with me? How about those kids rioting in the Netherlands or France? john77 January 26, 2021 at 4:14 pm @ Ironman How old is the government in either of those countries? The “reluctantly” locking-down Boris is 56, Rutte is 53, Macron is 43. The 70+ guy was opposed to lock-downs in the USA. If you’re not trolling then what *is* your excuse? PF January 26, 2021 at 4:16 pm Ironman I would suggest it’s not generally 70 or 80 year olds demanding that people stay inside. It’s those younger, by one or two generations (?), and perhaps steering typically to those more left/woke, WFH/doesn’t affect them, etc. The Other Bloke in Italy January 26, 2021 at 4:22 pm Yeah, all those 80-year – old teachers insisting the schools stay closed to keep them safe… Theophrastus January 26, 2021 at 5:06 pm Ironman What PF said. Most of the healthy 70-85 year olds I know would prefer to shield as an age group rather than constrain the lives of the young. I also know a couple of people with terminal conditions who would rather take their chances and see their grandchildren, given that they could be dead in months. Theophrastus January 26, 2021 at 5:12 pm “Yeah, all those 80-year – old teachers insisting the schools stay closed to keep them safe…” Nice one! Given that the UK teaching ‘profession’ is 69.5% female – 82.4% at primary level – and that women are both more anxious and risk-averse than men, it should be no surprise that teachers are fretting unnecessarily about catching covid at work. Andrew C January 26, 2021 at 6:24 pm Yep. Average age of those dying ‘with Covid or having read in the papers about Covid some time in the last 6 months’ or whatever definition they are using at the moment – 82. Average Life expectancy at birth of someone born 82 years ago. 63 Andrew C January 26, 2021 at 6:29 pm Well if public sector workers are personified by that arse-licker PSR over in Spudland, no wonder they want lockdown to last forever. Supposedly ‘working from home’, he clearly spends half his day reading and contributing to Spud’s blog. All the time on full pay from whoever it is who is unfortunate enough to be employing him. It must be a saving grace that his work colleagues don’t have to suffer the self-righteous moron. Jim January 26, 2021 at 6:40 pm “On the other hand, at no other time and nowhere else have we had a significant population of 70 & 80-somethings demandimg children, teenagers and the young stay indoors so that I ME ME can eke out a couple more years of my miserable, creaking-gate existence.” I said some time ago that this ‘crisis’ is caused by the howl of existential thoughts screaming through 50 and 60 something minds that they might just not be immortal. And and those in charge of just about everything are in that age bracket you can see why ‘Something Must Be Done!’ is the result. The actual elderly know they are not long for this world, and want to enjoy what they have left in peace, and see their grandchildren prosper. Its the Boomers in between who are throwing everyone else under the bus to save their necks, and their anticipated long retirements. Bloke in North Dorset January 26, 2021 at 6:43 pm Big barney on the sailing forum because someone spotted a bunch on 70+year-olds outside a café chatting away. Those complaining were the younger element. Tbf a lot of them were complaining because they were on house arrest to protect those that were ignoring it. A bit OT, but regarding John’s comment about Trump, it appears now that he’s gone his Covid policies are acceptable. (My emphasis) All hail the great reopening The egregious limits on gatherings will persist for a few more weeks, but the tone of the argument here has shifted. It is the most significant change in state policy in a very long time. Perhaps people can begin soon to get their human rights back? The same is happening in other states. Washington, D.C. will resume indoor dining. Maryland’s governor has decided that the state needs to reopen schools now and no later than March 1. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan says Michigan restaurants can reopen for indoor dining on February 1. Her health adviser decided to resign. Let us hope it is the beginning of many. Chicago’s mayor is now demanding an immediate opening of restaurants and bars. Chicago is also threatening teachers unions that they must return to work. New York Governor Cuomo has dramatically reversed his rhetorical course and demanded a reopening of the city. More announcements are expected in the coming days. Governor Gavin Newsom, incredibly, has lifted all stay-at-home orders across the state and is permitting dining to open up. Many restaurants have defied orders for months now, and good for them. This new announcement shows that their defiance had an influence. Montana’s new governor has lifted some Covid restrictions. National Public Radio has decided to announce that the virus has peaked. The WHO is insisting that the PCR cycle threshold must change. If nations adjust, it should make a big difference in the case trend. And perhaps in the most honest statement uttered by any elected official in twelve months, Joseph Biden said the following: “There’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months.” He didn’t need to qualify that statement. He could have stopped after pandemic. H/T: https://clubtroppo.com.au/2021/01/26/are-the-covid-lights-going-on-in-the-states/ dearieme January 26, 2021 at 7:21 pm “Average Life expectancy at birth of someone born 82 years ago: 63” That’s an illuminating number but you’ll be charged with wanting to commit genocide on everyone over 80. aaa January 26, 2021 at 7:29 pm We have the woke to thank for lockdown. It’s not 70 and 80 year olds asking for lockdown. They’d happily shield themselves while the rest of the world gets on with it. It’s the previous generation, screeching down anyone and anything that “literally wants to kill granny” by even thinking about an alternative to lockdown. Meanwhile, Granny would be horrified that this is being done in her name. Ummmm January 26, 2021 at 7:30 pm Anecdotally and looking at polls the younger generation are much more accepting of and in favour our lockdowns and restrictions. Most of the older generation can both remember when 80,000 winter deaths a year from respiratory diseases was considered normal and have experienced worst crisis in their lives Chester Draws January 26, 2021 at 7:41 pm in most of the world there isn’t a significant population of 80 year olds to die of a new pandemic. Careful, people forget how much the world has progressed. We used to have a “third world problem”. Now, it you look at the figures we basically have a sub-Saharan Africa problem, with a few places like Haiti that never seem to get better. The rest is, slowly, on the up. Life expectancy in India is now 70, and they manage to have 11 million people over 80. Yet they are one of the slower performers. philip January 26, 2021 at 8:39 pm A friend relates the gripes of a ninety year old neighbour, diabetic, half blind, partially incontinent and very very keen on lockdown. He has had the jab, and may have had the second one too. Hurrah! he thought, freedom at last. He was most annoyed to find that when he left home all the shops and bars were shut. Some people take the idea of dying as a personal affront, whatever their age. philip January 26, 2021 at 8:43 pm On the subject of vaccinations. The NHS informs us that over half the patients with covid in ITU are under 65. This is because the NHS has taken the decision to prioritise the younger cohort who may be saved to have a significant QALY ahead of them. The elderly ill with covid have to take their chances in the G&A wards. At the same time the NHS prioritises the very elderly for the vaccine. Does anyone else find this a bit contradictory or is it just me? Theophrastus January 26, 2021 at 8:55 pm Ummm “80,000 winter deaths a year from respiratory diseases was considered normal” 80,000pa winter deaths from all respiratory causes is (from memory) about normal even now. However, 80,000 deaths from a single respiratory disease was never considered normal in the post-war period. 30,000-80,000 deaths is the range for the 1969/70 HK flu epidemic. So there has been nothing like 100,000 deaths within 28 days of infection from a single respiratory disease for over 50 years. Bloke in North Dorset January 26, 2021 at 9:06 pm Chester, “ Careful, people forget how much the world has progressed. “ Good point and I should have known better, I have Johan Norberg’s Progress on my bookshelf. And I’ve read it 🙂 Agammamon January 27, 2021 at 1:34 am In addition to the people who’ve pointed out that no previous century had a significant population of 80 year olds to die, Flu Pandemic of 1918 anyone? Bloke in North Dorset January 27, 2021 at 5:39 am In addition to the people who’ve pointed out that no previous century had a significant population of 80 year olds to die, Flu Pandemic of 1918 anyone? The Spanish flu mainly affected young people: With respect to the impact of the Spanish flu it is striking that the visualization shows that the pandemic had very little impact on older people. While the life expectancy at birth and at young ages declined by more than ten years, the life expectancy of 60- and 70-year olds saw no change. This is at odds with what we would expect: older populations tend to be most vulnerable to influenza outbreaks and respiratory infections. If we look at mortality for both lower respiratory infections (pneumonia) and upper respiratory infections today, death rates are highest for those who are 70 years and older. One reason why this pandemic was so devastating was that young people accounted for a large share of the population. Why were older people so resilient to the 1918 pandemic? The research literature suggests that this was the case because older people had lived through an earlier flu outbreak – the already discussed ‘Russian flu pandemic’ of 1889–90 – which gave those who lived through it some immunity for the later outbreak of the Spanish flu.18 The earlier 1889-90 pandemic might have given the older population some immunity, but was a destructive event in itself. According to Smith 132,000 people died in England, Wales, and Ireland alone.19 Mr Ecks January 27, 2021 at 8:22 am There are NO 100,000 dead from C19. 100,000 falsely and deceitfully lumped in under Blojob’s casedemic bullshit –yes. Actually dead from C19–1500 prev healthy people. The rest were dying anyway or are people dead from ALL causes who have been given a false positive by the shite PCR test that is the lynchpin of Blojerks career/govt survival strategy. IE bogus numbers claiming massive deaths/infections and then posture as vax saviour. Even as his henchmen and his own actions (sly extension of rules to July) make it clear that anyone getting jabbed in the hope of getting their life back is just another mug. Likewise numbers in hosp –where several FP tests on one person are classed as the same number of new cases. And bogus massive numbers of daily infections in the 10000s range. All a pack of lies. Bongo January 27, 2021 at 10:04 am The age profile for people on ITU with flu is out there somewhere, and it’s overwhelmingly 45-65 year olds too. The Covid age profile is older by about 1 year. Rob w January 28, 2021 at 12:34 pm Mr Ecks “There are NO 100,000 dead from C19. 100,000 falsely and deceitfully lumped in under Blojob’s casedemic bullshit –yes. Actually dead from C19–1500 prev healthy people.” Mr Ecks is correct. In order for one to believe the alleged ONS Covid-19 mortality figures, one would have to also subscribe to the impossible belief that deaths from all other causes plummeted in 2020, way below the lows of recent years even though the 2020 population is both larger and more elderly than previously. Just looking at the ONS figures for E&W for 2020, there was 604k deaths from all causes and 71k alleged Covid-19 deaths. Hence, only cira 533k Non-Covid-19. One has to go back to 2014 (when the population of E&W was only 57.4 million and had slightly fewer than 3.4 million over 75 year olds) for total mortality figures below this number. The 2020 total of 533k non-Covid-19 total deaths relate to a population of E&W of 59.8 million, with an over 75 population (the main Covid-19 victim cohort) of 5.2 million. To really scare yourself (if that’s how you get off), just check out the ONS population projections for 2025 or 2030! Rob w January 28, 2021 at 12:50 pm Re my previous comment, if one truly believes in the Covid-19 deaths figures then a very good case (simple correlation) can be made that we urgently need to close down all hospitals because their effective closure to all but alleged Covid-19 cases since March last year, cancer, heart disease, etc. deaths have fallen significantly! As these other deaths are pretty stable from year to year, it’s clear that the Covid-19 death numbers are simply the result of changed incentives for doctors to engage in a bit of creative accounting. PF January 28, 2021 at 1:14 pm > Rob W Just looking at the ONS figures for E&W for 2020, there was 604k deaths from all causes and 71k alleged Covid-19 deaths. Hence, only cira 533k Non-Covid-19. One has to go back to 2014 (when the population of E&W was only 57.4 million and had slightly fewer than 3.4 million over 75 year olds) for total mortality figures below this number. Whilst I agree there has definitely been misattribution (non Covid deaths being described as Covid), that’s just wrong. Here are the total ONS numbers you describe for E&W for 2010-2019 (2020 and 2015 have an extra 53rd week), taken from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales 2019 – 527,234 2018 – 539,340 2017 – 533,125 2016 – 524,474 2015 – 531,483 2014 – 497,700 2013 – 503,665 2012 – 496,616 2011 – 484,391 2010 – 493,166 On the one hand, there are clearly lots of deaths that have occurred because of lockdown and, on the other and as you say, some of those Covid deaths are obviously misattributed (if you trawl through the weekly data/Covid peaks), because there are times (of high Covid) especially in the autumn/winter (when the testing had been ramped up) when the apparent resulting unders don’t pass any sort of smell test. > Ecks I fail to understand why a nation who saw through the EU are such a bunch of fools and cowards as to fall for Johnsons bullshit. Quite. The problem is that the shyster is quite good at it. Hence, 30th Jan – I’ll take a local exploratory walk, but not in any great expectation. The risk to small businesses of Council Nazis subsequently taking terminal action may simply weigh too heavily. Ottokring January 28, 2021 at 1:42 pm A bit late to this, but regarding the Spanish Flu : it disproportionately affected young people because it swept first through the armies. Ludenforff in his Meine Kriegserinnerungen complained that the German army was struck down in early 1918 and it hampered the Spring offensives. It blasted through the relatively fit and well fed American army, just as much as the undernourished armies in the East. It was then taken home by returning soldiers, where it affected the younger people working cheek by jowl in the factories and of course it was felt more harshly in the Central Powers, Turkey and India who all suffered from one reason or another from malnourishment and/or unsanitary conditions. I have heard two theories as to its origin : it was brought over by Chinese labourers working on the Western front and that it originated in Kansas and was transported by US doughboys. Rob w January 28, 2021 at 2:22 pm PF My argument is that the ONS’ total mortality figures do not standardise for the increased size and more elderly composition of the population over time. I’m happy to stick with my original post that non-covid-19 mortality rates in 2020, were lower than at any time since 2014: here’s the population numbers (in 1000’s)that you need to divide the total deaths by to obtain the annual mortality rates: 2014 57,409 2015 57,881 2016 58,381 2017 58,755 2018 59,116 2019 59,488 2020 59,829 Incidentally, the ONS did indeed have a 53rd week in both 2015 and 2020. However, last week they altered their 2020 figures (having published the 53 weeks 2020 figures the week before and now only include the 52 weeks – see https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales PF January 28, 2021 at 3:05 pm Rob W Fair point. Somewhat negligently on my part, in responding above as I had thought it was implicit, I didn’t quote the more important part..:) “There are NO 100,000 dead from C19. 100,000 falsely and deceitfully lumped in under Blojob’s casedemic bullshit” Mr Ecks is correct. In order for one to believe the alleged ONS Covid-19 mortality figures, one would have to also subscribe to the impossible belief that deaths from all other causes plummeted in 2020, way below the lows of recent years even though the 2020 population is both larger and more elderly than previously. That was actually the point I was making (I wasn’t clear enough) when providing the other numbers to compare with the 533K for 2020? Ie, there really is no “way below”. Happy to accept a reasonable % of misattribution and lots of other stuff for that 70K of Covid, including higher misattribution offset by more deaths “due” to lockdown. But nothing like the full extent of the implied interpretation above? Unless someone can provide a robust analysis of why non Covid increased by the rough quantum of 71K for 2020. I’ve not seen anyone at all provide such an analysis? btw, it doesn’t change my view one jot: Enforced lockdowns were completely wrong, and the Government / advisers knew for certain by the end of April (unless even more inept than imaginable) that the 1st LD wasn’t a primary driver for what took place through March / early April. Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. 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