The Times might want to start hiring people who actually know about financial markets to write about financial markets:
The metal rose by 1 per cent to $23,657 per tonne yesterday amid fears of a squeeze in supply, while the difference between the cash price and the price of acquiring tin in three months’ time is at its widest for at least three decades. The phenomenon, known as “backwardation”, indicates the likelihood of a supply shortage.
That’s horrendously confused. Yes, tin is in backwardation, that means the 3 month future is below the price of the current immediate delivery (or “cash”) market.
This means that tin is in short supply today as compared to where it is expected to be in 3 months time. Nowt to do with indications of likelihoods….