Probably because they’re grey lizards

What I did not hear was the data that I wanted. Amongst the reports of falling cases what was not said was how many were becoming ill despite having had a vaccine. Nor was it said which vaccine they might have had. And the same was not said for deaths.

And yet it is impossible that this data is not known now. And if the desire was informed debate it would be published. There is now more than enough data on this to know efficacy, and variations in it.

So why does the government not want us to be able to appraise its policies? And why too does it not want us to be able to appraise our risks from having differing vaccines? What could its reason for keeping us in the dark be?

Could it be that there is something it does not want us to know?

Well, he’s right, obviously. The only reason the government hasn’t released these figures to an economics professor is because they’re hiding that they’re really grey lizards.

18 thoughts on “Probably because they’re grey lizards”

  1. Considering the complaints made over the last 9 months about the conflation of those dying with as opposed to from Covid he is somewhat late to the game of identifying glaring gaps in the ONS data.

  2. The number dying in the UK after receiving, before becoming infected, either of the vaccines is either zero or too small to be statistically significant. So he is asking for data which would either show an unrealistic zero risk of dying after vaccination (the nearly-but-not-quite-infinite variability of humans means it won’t be zero) or show a number that is almost meaningless.
    There is NOT enough data to show any result that could remotely be considered reliable. The currently reported death toll in the UK after more than a year is one in 600 of the population and that includes a significant minority who died of something else after being diagnosed with coronavirus and a smaller but more significant minority who died due to the culpable negligence of the NHS in discharging to Care homes patients infected with covid-19. The number of deaths of those vaccinated in a few weeks since vaccination started would be small if the vaccination did not work. No reliable data is yet possible.

  3. I don’t trust them. Does anyone imagine that there will be an honest count of deaths after getting the vaccine if it turns out to have an element of risk? Reports from the US of death/illness after vaccine are numerous. Of course that may be false or wrongly attributed.

  4. Bloke in North Dorset

    There’s a well established reporting system for vaccine side effects and deaths and its being run for Covid vaccines:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

    This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 31 January 2021. At this date, an estimated 6.6 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 3 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.5 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered. This represents an increase of 2.7 million on the previous week.

    As of 31 January 2021, for the UK:

    20,319 Yellow Cards have been reported for the Pfizer/BioNTech
    11,748 have been reported for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine
    72 have been reported where the brand of the vaccine was not specified
    For both vaccines the overall reporting rate is around 3 to 4 Yellow Cards per 1,000 doses administered.

    And deaths:

    Events with a fatal outcome

    The MHRA has received 143 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 90 reports for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine and 3 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified. The majority of these reports were in elderly people or people with underlying illness. Review of individual reports and patterns of reporting does not suggest the vaccine played a role in the death.

    How dastardly of the government, hiding the data in plain sight.

    And anyone can submit a report:

    https://coronavirus-yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/

    And to add to that Mrs BiND got her vaccination on Saturday and she’s got a survey to fill in to report side effects.

  5. The thought of Spud joining SAGE and getting pally with Neil “big dick” Ferguson would be momentous in the world of fetish porn

  6. @ BiND
    Thanks.
    I still maintain that those numbers are too small relative to the numbers of expected deaths in that population sub-group in the absence of a pandemic for any ill-effects to be discernible. We’re looking at a group with a normal mortality rate of 2% per annum and that shows “yellow cards” of 0.3%

  7. Bloke in North Dorset

    And on Spud’s complaint, PHE hasn’t reported the impact of vaccinations of any numbers yet, not even to the government. They’re due to report this week and that report will be used By Boris to plan the roadmap out of lockdown.

    @John77,

    I don’t have the background to do that analysis, I have to take them at face value. As organisations like actuaries and the ONS haven’t raised any concerns I’ll rest easy.

  8. Hilarious

    Richard Murphy says:
    February 15 2021 at 12:25 pm
    You’re puzzled?

    If so, please provide the data.

    If not, why are you puzzled?

    The question I have asked is entirely treasonable

    Why aren’t you puzzled at the absence of an answer?

  9. Thanks, BiND, I didn’t know that had been published. Mea culpa, I was wrong.

    Still don’t trust ’em though.

  10. You’d think someone who worked on academic papers would understand the time required to produce such reports.
    The Israelis have reported that no-one vaccinated so far has gone on to die of Covid.
    It is interesting to see how they complaint about lockdown sceptics that many of these people were going to die anyway is suddenly adopted as the reason for discounting deaths in vaccinated people.

  11. Bloke in North Dorset

    @john77

    Just a thought, but the numbers of those who have already died might be skewing the numbers.If they were likely to die around the time of the vaccination they were probably in care home and there’s been a terrible toll in care homes.

  12. Rhoda: “Reports from the US of death/illness after vaccine are numerous. Of course that may be false or wrongly attributed.”

    This is the US… Something, something, litigation, possible mega-payout.. There’s absolutely no incentive there at all…

    Never trust a government, and always trust in US lawyers finding a way to monetise greed.

  13. @ BiND
    Quite true. But that’s even more (one additional) reason why we cannot use the limited data available to produce precise calculations on the efficacy of vaccination.
    AZ, Pfizer, etc have conducted clinical trials that are designed (thanks to Sir Ronald Fisher) to measure the efficacy and risk of side-effects; Boris et al have ordained mass vaccinations that are designed to optimise the reduction in deaths and serious illness. Why should any sane person expect the latter to be designed to optimise data analysis when that has already been done?

  14. @ rhoda klapp
    Google says that 173 million US residents have been vaccinated. 0.01% of those would be >17,300. If the USA can get maladministration of injections down to 0.01% that will be wonderful …

  15. We are told that the vaccines have a success rate (sort of..) of ninety-something percent. So we should expect a certain number to die of Covid despite the jab. And you could bet your granny on the press latching on to some sad story or other if it were anything but very rare. So I doubt there is anything to cover up, let alone there actually being a cover-up.

  16. @john77
    Given US population is ~300 million, 173 million vaccinations sounds far too high (it seems to be a Global figure from Bloomberg). My Google says 36 million (including 12 million having had the second dose). Doesn’t invalidate your comment, though.

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