The economic blow dealt by Brexit will be four times greater in the UK than the EU, according to the latest forecasts by Brussels.
A month into the new relationship, the European commission said the UK’s exit on the terms agreed by Boris Johnson’s government would generate a loss in gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2022 of about 2.25% in the UK compared with continued membership. In contrast, the hit for the EU is estimated to be about 0.5% over the same period.
EU GDP is about $18 trillion, 0.5% of that is $90 billion.
UK GDP is about $2.2 trillion (ignore this past year). 2.25% of that is $49.5 billion.
Brexit will be twice as expensive for the EU as it is for the UK.
Isn’t that steady state economics, assuming that there is no change in trade patterns from no longer having tariff-free access to Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia etc? When you look at the composition of the EU, you cannot help but be overwhelmed by the economic might of 7/8 of its members
Of course they can count. They are just not honest. So they need to make it sound like they are winning and Britain is losing.
Whereas the truth is the money is irrelevant. We got rid of those cunts in Brussels and they got left with them. The value of that? Priceless.
Just routine EU lying.
Indeed routine govt lying.
At the moment Johnson’s lies are far more numerous and even more clumsy than the EU’s.
Even the fucking EU isn’t crass enough to have posters up saying “Act like you are losing”.
“Brexit less of a problem for the EU, so there!”, says the EU
Worth pointing out that the EU doesn’t trade with the UK. Individual companies in individual countries in the EU trade with individual companies in the UK. Most people in the UK won’t be affected by Brexit. UK’s a net importer & there will be substitution of imports. Most people in the EU won’t be either. The loss will be imposed on individual companies in individual countries. Thus division is sown Which the EU has to cope with.
All in all a net gain we can all relish
Spot on, BIS. I wonder how deep the trade connections that UK companies have built up with the EU 27 minus about 6 countries, compared with the links with US, India, Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada etc. Those links matter when the world economy is getting battered.
Have they taken into account the cost to the richer nations in the EU of the next bail-out when one of the poorer EU nations goes tits-up?
The UK will be spared that cost.
That $18 trillion figure seems dubiously high. Are we really saying that the EU, sans the UK, has a GDP c.9x that of the UK? Seems unlikely.
As if we didn’t know, we’re getting to see who the EU’s friends really are – soft on Russia, soft on China, hard on UK.
And who benefits most from that policy towards Russia and China? Could it be Germany? Surely not.
– Brexit will be twice as expensive for the EU as it is for the UK.
Tsk, tsk, Tim. I’m pretty sure I’ve seen you complain when the (say) Guardian swops between percentages and totals for convenience or stupidity.
Taking the EU’s figures at face value (never a good idea) then of course we suffer a worse economic blow at 2.25% of GDP vs 0.5% for them.
@PJF
But with this you have to look at the money, not the %. Which is I imagine the point of the post. EU GDP happens in a lot of countries don’t trade much with the UK. And as I said above. The EU doesn’t trade with the UK at all.
@ PJF
The Grauniad missed out the word “proportionately” from both the headline and the text.
Perhaps they are both innumerate and illiterate or perhaps they are lying to imply a greater effect and hope no-one will pick them up on it.
I’m with PJF on this one: the question is who will it hurt the most, not who can piss higher up the wall.