Sunk costs are sunk costs

What are the alternatives? Another invasion?

Indeed. And I have commented on the article to point this out.
But what interests me is that Biden is apparently taking responsibility for this.
I anticipate this will upset a portion of the coalition that got him into the white house.
I predict that he will eventually upset many parts of that coalition, as their only point of agreement is “Orange Man Bad”

Going into Afghanistan to unsettle the Taliban and deny al-Qaeda a safe base of operations was a reasonably credible plan as a short sharp strategic raid; after which point Afghanistan goes back into “failed state, ignore anything that doesn’t cross its boundaries” category.

Trying to do a bout of opposed nation-building was a Bad Idea, and one that screwed up our exit from Iraq (lots of the resources we were intending to use to leave our part of Iraq in working order, so there’d be a decent enough gap between us handing over and a Shia coup or other mayhem, were abruptly yanked to send to Afghanistan) in a way that still echoes now – we screwed up the endgame in Iraq massively because politicians and senior military were “bored” with it and Afghanistan was the new opportunity to show off.

To draw on everyone’s favourite dead Prussian (much quoted, little read, less understood) – what does “winning” look like in Afghanistan, and how do we get there from here? If the answers are “we aren’t sure” and “we have no idea” then walk away and just shoot anything nasty coming out of the place.

There’s a philosophical point about how these days, so few are, have been, or have family in the military; which makes it very easy to wail that “something should be done!” without any fear of consequence: they won’t have family or friends re-enacting Kipling’s “Arithmetic on the Frontier” and the Government won’t make trade-offs like “Okay, but this means no NHS pay rise this year…” clear.

It also blinds folk to the reality that the Government go from being guilty of crimes against humanity (the Taliban are oppressing innocent Afghans, something must be done!) to being guilty of crimes against humanity (Private Knuckfuckle of the 13th Loamshires shot an Afghan civilian, something must be done!) because the military solve problems by killing people and blowing sh!t up, and if you don’t like the threat or reality of that as a part of your solution you shouldn’t be using the military.

Various Great Powers have attempted to successfully invade Afghanistan over the past two centuries, and all have failed. Just leave them to it.

Why should we care about whether we are at peace or war with the Taliban? What can they do in terms of acts of war against us? Drive their Toyota-mounted Kalashnikovs up to the Pakistani border and fire into desolate tribal wastelands?

We retain (just about) the ability to carpet-bomb any camps where they might start training mobile jihadis, western airliners cross the country unmolested every day, or used to before the current unpleasantness that has nothing to do with Afghanistan. The Taliban must be one of the most pathetic and irrelevant enemies we have ever faced. A bit like Coronavirus.

Jason

“….Kipling’s “Arithmetic on the Frontier”.”

There’s more strategic truth in that short poem than in the combined output of the world’s armchair strategists.

Do a deal with the Taliban? Before they agree to sign any peace deal, ask them what “Taquiyya” means.

Jason Lynch,

“Trying to do a bout of opposed nation-building was a Bad Idea, and one that screwed up our exit from Iraq (lots of the resources we were intending to use to leave our part of Iraq in working order, so there’d be a decent enough gap between us handing over and a Shia coup or other mayhem, were abruptly yanked to send to Afghanistan) in a way that still echoes now – we screwed up the endgame in Iraq massively because politicians and senior military were “bored” with it and Afghanistan was the new opportunity to show off.”

You can’t fix either Iraq or Afghanistan that way.

Countries get the systems of government they get because of the level of industrialisation vs natural resources. It’s a pattern that not only fits modern countries, but you can even see historical changes. Countries become democratic as they become more industrial, like the UK, Taiwan and Korea.

It’s why all those countries in the Middle East are about war and torture. You get rich by taking the oil and you stay rich by torturing anyone who wants to replace you. It’s why one bunch of bastards takes over from another in these places. Even if they get democracy, it never lasts.

The only way you change this is by finding a way to make them more industrial. Like build a canal so that Afghanistan can ship goods around the world. Then you can get sweatshops in Kandahar. Maybe Starlink will have people doing software work from these places.

White Man’s Burden – long out of fashion.
Leave ’em to it, and bomb the shit out of anyone causing trouble outside the border.