As a result of this the P³ tells us that:
The key indicator is the second line down – the aggregate spending.
In February 2021 spending is on aggregate 73% of what it was in February 2020.
But, crucially, despite the vaccines it is still lower now than it was from last June onwards. So far the vaccine programme has not increased consumer confidence.
Sunak thinks it will. I am not convinced, as I suggested yesterday.
It is going to take a long time for people hit as hard as we have been to think that this the moment to spend all their savings.
What it actually shows us is that people would love to be out there spending their savings. Because, from the original source, he misses this bit:
These data series are experimental faster indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily Clearing House Automated Payment System (CHAPS) payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both via physical and via online platforms.
What happened in early Jan? All the physical – OK, most – closed and they’re not open as yet.
They’re currently physically constrained from spending that is…..