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This man is insane

As a result of this the P³ tells us that:

The key indicator is the second line down – the aggregate spending.

In February 2021 spending is on aggregate 73% of what it was in February 2020.

But, crucially, despite the vaccines it is still lower now than it was from last June onwards. So far the vaccine programme has not increased consumer confidence.

Sunak thinks it will. I am not convinced, as I suggested yesterday.

It is going to take a long time for people hit as hard as we have been to think that this the moment to spend all their savings.

What it actually shows us is that people would love to be out there spending their savings. Because, from the original source, he misses this bit:

These data series are experimental faster indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily Clearing House Automated Payment System (CHAPS) payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both via physical and via online platforms.

What happened in early Jan? All the physical – OK, most – closed and they’re not open as yet.

They’re currently physically constrained from spending that is…..

6 thoughts on “This man is insane”

  1. And if you take the figures just before lockdown, some of them were up to 160%.

    Also worth noting most people of working age have not been vacinated yet – it is mostly pensioners who aren’t going to directly have lowered confidence due to the perceived risk of losing their jobs (pensions are much more stable).

    Finally its not clear whether this is a measurement issue (indicator is a weighted sample of 100 large retailers whose transactions are cleared through CHAPS), if online retailers (such as Amazon, online car sellers, online clothes sites etc) are under represented and sales have moved to them then their would be a headline reduction much greater than the real reduction. Though I imagine it has decreased given there is little point buying new outfits etc during lockdown.

  2. Though I imagine it has decreased given there is little point buying new outfits etc during lockdown.

    The number of deliveries of new clothes to this household is quite high of late, which seems to rebut your assertion!

  3. To the point, Ducky, where you question the entire dataset. Did you know that in Minnesota, the new snow plough is called Plowy McPlowface?

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