The reports appear to emanate from the Bank of England. Almost all indices are, apparently, moving better than expected. Given that some think I am a doom-monger I thought I should note the fact.
Doing so does not change my opinion on the risks we face. That we are getting better at lockdown is unsurprising. It would be surprising if we were not. And treat me as cynical if you wish, but I rather strongly suspect that the relatively small improvement that is being celebrated could be entirely engineered within the ONS by them simply assuming that large parts of public services, like teaching, remained productive during this lockdown when during the first lockdown it was assumed that they were not. How much has really changed then is hard to tell.
As the ONS said, schools output fell as kids weren’t going to school. Now that schools are reopening then schools output rises. So, therefore, does GDP.
This all being part of why the UK’s GDP fall was greater than everywhere else’s of course. Because ONS was the only stats agency that did include the fall in state output…..