That settles that then

I think it’s only fair to quote what Prof Walker said, the last paragraph being particularly relevant. This is from the Mirror:

“Without vaccines, I don’t think getting close to zero is really feasible in the situation now in the UK where we’re effectively endemic, we’ve moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation.

“Long-term lockdown isn’t a viable solution so vaccines are clearly going to be the only way that we are going to have a chance to control this,” she said.

But she did warn that the virus has been good at ‘throwing us curveballs’ and said it could go wrong very quickly.

Reply
Richard Murphy says:
April 23 2021 at 1:09 pm
So, we’re still in a pandemic then

The comment was straightforwardly wrong

“We are now not in a pandemic” is proof that we are in a pandemic. Well done to the P³

7 thoughts on “That settles that then”

  1. Spud-o-Logic being well… Spud-o-Logic..

    On a more positive and “slightly” more reliable note: There’s finally scientific numbers on the re-infection issue:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545?s=09 (New England Journal of Medicine)

    Very short version: If you’ve had CoVid or have been vaccinated, you’re safe for at least 6 months, and even if you get re-infected to the level of displaying symptoms within that period (< 0.01% chance, according to the numbers) you will only get the mild cold effect. ( barring Acts of God.. )

    Note that this research was done on people who professionally get exposed to high levels of Virus Nasty ( Danish care workers on CoVid wards ).
    Us ordinary peeps do not get exposed to nearly the same levels, so our odds at not-getting-the-Lurgy twice are at least a factor 10 better.

    Also note that if the virus is as panendemic as P³ claims, continued exposure to it means that your immunity gets maintained through that exposure once built, so that those six months may well prove to be much, much longer. With for the vast majority of people no more than a bad sniffle, if at all.

    One more nail in the coffin for the Lockdown Fetishists. But that's just my personal opinion.

  2. Bloke in North Dorset

    Zoe App is down to record lows

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1385919348557156355?s=20

    NHS triage has been at record lows for days, with only a small blip when they opened schools:

    https://twitter.com/dontbetyet/status/1385169463012700168?s=20

    “All regions are now below 50 per 100k, which is the first time since the 6th September.

    However compare the number of tests conducted.

    Now = 946k Sep = 141k

    How many are real positives?”

    https://twitter.com/dontbetyet/status/1385468249492570113?s=20

    Just about any metric you can think of is below 95% of peak.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1385618390858018816?s=20

    If we were going to see a revival of the virus after the pubs and shops open we would be seeing it in the triage and Zoe data by now.

    Anyone banging the pandemic drum is doing it for political reasons, presumably hoping to summon forth some of Melken’s hobgoblins.

  3. Fucking “curveballs”. Why must people prattle with American metaphors that they probably don’t understand?

  4. @Grikath – April 24, 2021 at 11:30 am

    If you’ve had CoVid or have been vaccinated, you’re safe for at least 6 months

    I’m willing to bet that it’s going to be a lot longer than that. ISTR reading that people who had had the “first version” of SARS getting-on for twenty years ago still showed an immune reaction to SARS-CoV-2 (the “current version”). As it would appear that you get a “better” immunity* as a result of a genuine infection, the problem, if there is one, is more likely to be with those who’ve been vaccinated.

    * As I understand it, because it has a whole virus to have a crack at rather than just a bit of it, the immune system is able to recognise more loci on the virome than just the specific proteins that are generated by the vaccine. I may of course be completely wrong as I’m a (retired) physicist not a (retired) immunologist 🙂

  5. Essentially, yes. A full virus body does have a bigger “attack surface” because of what you mentioned.
    Most of that is “stealthed” though with a ( highly mutable) polysaccharide goo. The spikes *have* to stick out and are always exposed to antibody recognition, and are the first line of attack for us.

    That’s why they focused on the spike.. It’s always detectable, and it helps that a couple of endemic cousins use the same spike.. Adds another 10% or so to the chance to get a proper reaction to a vaccine even if it doesn’t get reinforced with the Real Deal. Free Lunch! 😉
    The spike is also (mostly) self-folding, with the rest of the lot a lot less so, or they get modified during post-production/packaging ( that goo…). So there’s far less chance to end up with somethng resembling the Real Deal with the other proteïns in the virus.

    As for how long… well as a physicist you’re probably familiar with half-times, and the mess that makes of any specific prediction other than generalities and averages..
    Ummm.. In the case of the immune system..
    3 elements with each at least two isotopes each, where the decay products of some isotopes have a p,q,r,s% chance of transmuting another of the isotopes/elements into another isotope/element, provided….. unaldulterated migraine material..

    The only reason 6 months gets mentioned is because that amount of time without re-infection has been measured and checked, with 99% confidence. Come Juli it’ll probaly be 9 months with 98% confidence.
    Only way to get a decent answer is wait and count…

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