YouGov has now done a survey on social trends in the Red Wall. It makes interesting reading.
In summary what it finds is that on most issues the Red Wall is a little more conservative (small c) than the rest of the UK, but nor materially so, Brexit and migration apart. Across the UK as a whole only 41% believe the UK was right to leave the EU. In the Red Wall it remains 50%. But move on from that and things are different.
So, for example, on the supposedly ultra woke question that asked if ‘It is important to teach school children about Britain’s colonial history and its role in the slave trade’ 78% in the UK as a whole agreed and 73% did in the Red Wall. Disagreement was just 4% and 6% respectively.
Oh dear.
As someone who has actually done real politics concerning these very seats.
Yes, attitudes overall aren’t that different, up to 10% points either way across the population, that sort of thing.
The difference is that in the metropolitan seats of the south it’s the the people who believe in these woke things who vote Labour. In the Red Wall seats it’s the people who don’t believe in these woke things who vote Labor.
Yes, obviously, that’s a gross exaggeration and all that. But there’s enough truth in it for it to be the actual point. The Labour vote oop north is small c socially conservative in a manner that the southern metropoles just aren’t. Which is the very Labour problem about being woke. Their bedrock assumed, weight the votes don’t count them, support isn’t interested in the same things those who lead the party think they are.
Bit like the Tories and Brexit a few years back in fact – and it took Ukip to make them see that.
‘It is important to teach school children about Britain’s colonial history and its role in the slave trade’
Indeed it is. The magnificent achievements of the Empire, its minor role in a slave trade that has existed throughout mankind’s history and its major commitment to the ending of the trans-Atlantic slave trade.
Those things should be taught at school.
Across the UK as a whole only 41% believe the UK was right to leave the EU
If your survey says Brexit is massively unpopular (59%) in the teeth of actual independent data such as the referendum result and two subsequent general elections in which Remongos got their shit pushed in, your survey is wrong.
So, for example, on the supposedly ultra woke question that asked if ‘It is important to teach school children about Britain’s colonial history and its role in the slave trade’ 78% in the UK as a whole agreed and 73% did in the Red Wall.
Most honest people assume that if you’re asking if it’s important to teach history in schools, you’re also an honest person asking a genuine question in good faith, rather than promoting an agenda of FUKK WYPIPO LOL
Theatricality and deception are powerful agents to the uninitiated… but we are initiated, aren’t we?
Brexit and migration apart
So, only the two biggest questions of the decade then. No biggie.
As for the teaching of history, of the red wall voters truly knew what the plans were they’d respond quite differently. Not sure they realise the huge extent to which they are lied to. It covers practically everything.
What Andrew C said
Yes, “teach school children about Britain’s colonial history” means very different things to different people. Basically whether our history is a cause of national pride or national shame. What people mean when they say they want it to be taught depends very much on how they see it being taught, and that question doesn’t get to that. Possibly that’s dishonesty in framing the question, but my guess is that the people designing the questionnaire just don’t realise that there is another view.
RichardT:
> my guess is that the people designing the questionnaire just don’t realise that there is another view
I used to think this. But I’ve seen too many surveys now where to answer the questions accurately would lend support to a proposition I don’t support and would work against my interests.
I believe it’s deliberate. It’s not a mistake, it’s enemy action.
Obviously, I refuse to participate, but I wish there were an effective response.
The Beeb is certainly on board with the national shame view. Their current documentary & drama output is largely “Why are you not guilty yet??!!!”
I would not have regarded teaching about the colonial history and links with the slave trade as ultra woke. Ultra woke is about trans women playing rugby. Or gay people wittering about islamophobia.
“So, for example, on the supposedly ultra woke question that asked if ‘It is important to teach school children about Britain’s colonial history and its role in the slave trade’”
Only woke if you use a very specific interpretation of said history.
Other interpretations are of course Verboten in the Woke Worldview, and an expression of the Evil NaziPatriarchal Oppression of the Necessary Revolution and Re-Education of the Masses.
Such things *were* taught to me at school in the utopian 1970s that so many demand we return to.
@Arthur Teacake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
Yes, Prime Minister. Surveys
A correct view of history –
The British (and to a lesser extent Western Europe) and the Americans helped to usher in the modern age with the development of the industrial revolution and the advances in science that accompanied this. The rest of the world owes them a huge debt for the progress made, which has brought unimaginable wealth to the peoples of the world.
Did the survey ask whether they thought that thousands of girls being gang-raped, drugged, tortured and even murdered in ‘Red Wall’ towns by organised, largely muslim Pakistani rape gangs, while their complaints, made directly by the victims to the police and social services, were ignored (despite the ‘believe all victims’ mantra which is loudly chanted whenever say an Oxford student is accused of anything), and their parents were sometimes arrested when they complained too loudly, and the girls themselves were sometimes returned directly to their attackers by the fucking police, because the police and the other authorities were scared of being accused of the ultracrime versus wokeness, namely racism, was a good thing or a bad thing?
Not that the Tories care either. Some would say that a military coup – while there are still soldiers prepared to say this shit ends, now – would be desirable. Obviously I think it would be horrific to see 3 PARA on the streets of British towns.
One giveaway is reference to “the slave trade”, singular. Obvs one should start with the exports of slaves from Celtic Britain to the Roman Empire, move on to the people seized from Roman Britain and enslaved by Irish raiders and invaders, the history of slavery under the Anglo-Saxons and Danes (10% of the population were slaves according to the Domesday Book). Taking a broader world view pupils would then be taught about the humungous Moslem slave trade into North Africa and Arabia after the conquests (with gory emphasis on the castration of the males), with an allusion to Barbary slaving from Britain and Ireland in early modern times. If there’s enough known, they could be taught about slave trades under the Huns, Tartars, and Mongols. Slavery in India would be worth a mention, insofar as enough is known – but it’s certainly known that East African slaves were imported into India during Moslem times on quite a large scale.
Of course, after all that the Atlantic Slave Trade might seem rather unexciting though I must say we were taught about it in school back in the year . The expression “the triangular trade” was explained. Well, it would have been covered wouldn’t it? Back in olden times schools were for education.
By the way, Tim, your occasional comments on what you learnt about politics in your UKIP days are good stuff. At least for people like me who have never “done” politics.
Across the UK as a whole only 41% believe the UK was right to leave the EU.
Does anyone believe that for a moment? That the 52% has, after a year in which Brexit has been a proven lifesaver and the poisonous nature of the EU and its quislings apparent to everyone in the UK, has slipped by more than 10 percentage points from the referendum?
It’s probably “41% <very-small-print>of those that voted remain in 2016</very-small-print> believe the UK was right to leave the EU”
It may be 41%, but still more than those who think it was a bad idea; the don’t knows are no doubt a sizable minority.
I don’t trust you, guv.
Brexit:
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nnpx8e9mve/YG%20Trackers%20-%20EU%20Tracker%20Questions_W.pdf
The actual number is 41% leave 45% remain 14% don’t know. If we redo it into Leave vs. remain: 47.7% leave vs 52.3% remain. There’s a margin of error here – two weeks previously leave was higher than remain. How do we reconcile it with the original vote? Some switching (from both sides), it’s possible that remainers were less likely to have voted (young turnout is lower) and inaccurate polling. Also possible that there’s been a net change over time.
If you look at the Yougov stuff, they show a leave majority until 2017 and then a shift to pro-remain.
@Interested:
Did the survey ask whether they thought that thousands of girls being gang-raped, drugged, tortured and even murdered in ‘Red Wall’ towns by organised, largely muslim Pakistani rape gangs, while their complaints, made directly by the victims to the police and social services, were ignored…
Which is more important; things that were done to black and brown people 150 years ago by evil English people, or things that are being done right now to young English girls by black and brown people?
Clearly if you think the former, congratulations! You’re an enlightened member of civilised society fit to be allowed to live and work and enjoy life. If you think the latter however,you’re a filthy Brexshit-voting, Nazi-Loving Gammon and therefore an enemy of humanity to be crushed under heel.
Looking at Ken’s figures they might well be correct – if you presume demographic changes and how Yougov polling works those figures seem reasonable. Yougov polling is primarily conducted of people under 50 and in London and the South East. It’s also heavily sampling the public sector. There’s scarcely a day that goes by on Facebook (where Remain won a 95% majority vs the Gammons don’t forget) without some horror story from the Guardian, BBC or independent regarding the consequences of Brexit. It’s largely academic though as realistically the earliest we could rejoin would be in two decades. I don’t think the EU will survive that long in its current form.
Even if only 41% that we should have left, it doesn’t follow the 59% think we should re-join. We ain’t going back in so what’s the point of dragging it up all the time?
In one of the forums I use its a new form of Godwin’s law, every current affairs discussion eventually ends up being an argument about Brexit, if tedious beyond belief.
@Van Patten, Yougov would not remain in business as a pollster if they had such biased samples or if they did have biased samples if they did not reweight it to match population characteristics. Frequently pollsters find they have too many of a subset and end up having to reduce the weight of say the under-50s who took the poll and increase the weighting given to the over 50s.
Where there is a problem is when we are not certain about the reliability of the reweighting – what observable characteristics should we be looking to natch and how do we distinguish. For example some voting panels rely on matching demographics, geography and class with past voting patterns, others rely on demographics with the choice of newspaper read to proxy for voting patterns.
Polling organisations usually produce polling results that agree with what the commissioners of the polls want. Nobody ever made a living out of telling people they’re mistaken
Polling organisations usually produce polling results that agree with what the commissioners of the polls want. Nobody ever made a living out of telling people they’re mistaken
No kidding. A recent poll in the US that produced a massive pro-Biden result was exposed as having a sample that was 16% Republican.
Theyre as scientific as witch doctors.
Interested,
It most likely will end with soldiers on the streets so ours rather than theirs is the preferred alternative.
Still remember the universal agreement of the polls that Shorten would win the Oz election. I incline to the theory that the sort of people who take polls are just naturally inclined to the left.
Though I’d certainly agree with BIS that they’re all about giving people the answer they want.
The latest pamphlet from my local member emphasized that the party was staunchly supporting electric cars. Even though the neighbourhood is gentrifying fast, I can’t really believe that a majority of the voters give a damn.
Don’t be a naïve mug Ken. Yougov are lying shite who lie for middle class Marxism.
How many more times is the remainaics=majority shite going to be spewed? What were the treasonous scumbags doing on the 3 voting days? Washing their fucking hair?
it is true that some polls are more favourable to the commissioners than others – usually because the questions are slightly loaded. The questions are usually not too loaded since respectable pollsters have to publish the questions and underlying data, at least in the UK.
@Boganboy and others, it is possibly true that the people answering polls tend to be leftwing (or younger, more likely to be at home, less busy). But it’s the job of a good pollster to adjust their sample to population characteristics. Pollsters also engage in behaviour known as “herding” where they tweak their algorithms to get results that match what other pollsters are showing. Or in the case of Australia they don’t publish polls that are out of line with the consensus.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html
Interestingly YouGov projected a narrow remain win in their last two polls prior to the referendum, having had a series of leave majorities in the weeks prior to this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
Polling for the referendum was very hard – because prior to the vote we didn’t have a clear picture about what represented a balanced panel. It’s easier in standard elections because we know (roughly) what matters in terms of prior voting patterns.
@mr ecks. A lot of ink is spilled on the question of whether there is a majority in favour of remain today. Much of it is ignorant crap. FWIW, I’d estimate that the polling numbers suggest a small majority in favour of remain today, but well within the margin of error. There have been defectors from both sides, but less than 10%. Some of it is people who failed to vote who now claim they would vote to remain. In terms of where the vote would go – my answer is “we don’t know”. In terms of the economic impact of Brexit, I remain of the view that the likely negative impact over 5-10 years will be on the order of a cumulative 3-5%. Amusingly, it’s likely that the botched vaccine roll out in the EU will actually mean that Brexit will have scored its first economic success, and probably by a significant percentage of GDP.
“in favour of remain today”- know what you mean, but wouldn’t it be fun if a 2nd referendum was worded = “Should the UK Remain independent or Unite with Europe? Not loaded particularly but certainly mischievous.
The referendum result was that 37.4% of voters voted Leave and 34.7% voted Remain, so if 41% now believe the UK was right to leave then support has gone up – not fallen drastically. If you take the proportion of the population, it was about 26%/24%.
The actual YouGov material is at https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/05/17/stereotypical-image-red-wall-residents-accurate which you should read rather than relying on a summary. It says ‘41% of people think Britain right “right to leave”, versus 45% who felt it was “wrong”’, which is consistent with a slight increase in Leavers (to compensate for those who have died since voting) and a large swing from “don’t know” or “didn’t vote” (which may be because they were too young at the time) to Remain. That would not be very surprising given the repeated consequences of having left. Note that about 14% are still “Don’t know” or “Don’t care”, so there is scope for a further shift without anyone changing their mind from Leave to Remain or vice versa.