Trying out this substack thing

I have a feeling I’ll not gain enough subscribers to make a go of it but let’s see.

Market prices are information, not just allocations
We’ll not solve Black housing wealth problems by just making up valuations of housing in Black majority areas.

21 thoughts on “Trying out this substack thing”

  1. “how you’d run the calculation if you did have the data and a few millennia of time.”

    When I was learning to program it struck me that it was surprising that “progressives” hadn’t thought to argue that the calculation problem could now mitigated by the power of computers. (The argument would have been bogus but I was still surprised that it wasn’t made.)

    Then the scales fell from my eyes – no “progressive” knew anything about computers nor had any clue about how they might change so many things. “Progressive”, on reflection, meant ‘ignorant, clueless tit’.

  2. @ dearieme
    When I was learning to programme (yes, it *was* programme in England in those days) computers were feared by the “Progressives” as a means of reducing the demand for labour, strengthening the negotiating position of capital.

  3. People have tried it. Allende was big on the idea of running the Chilean economy by a super powerful series of computers – snigger.

    The problem is twofold.

    1) Define the utility function that you are trying to optimise.

    2) You need *how much!* computing power?

    Current best guess is that we’d need another century of Moore’s Law to be able to do the second. The first is entirely intractable.

  4. dearieme
    June 2, 2021 at 4:29 pm

    “how you’d run the calculation if you did have the data and a few millennia of time.”

    When I was learning to program it struck me that it was surprising that “progressives” hadn’t thought to argue that the calculation problem could now mitigated by the power of computers.

    The only commie I’ve seen who even acknowledges the calculation problem is writer Ken MacLeod. And he ‘solves’ it on his book series by handwaving some new type of computing tech.

  5. Surely the problem with managing an economy via massive computing power is not so much the programming or the computation power required, more one of GIGO? Ie you still have to measure huge amounts of stuff in the real world in order to give it the data needed to do the calculations, and if your measuring is off by only a small amount the whole thing turns top rat shit in a short order?

  6. @ Jim
    Exactly!
    That’s why I gave up on the idea of being a programmer: I couldn’t control for data input that was 10^3 times the correct datum but screwed up the result by an amount too small for me to spot (not my subject so I could only spot errors of o(40-50%)) but large enough to mess up the info that the engineers wanted.

  7. To point out the utterly glaringly obvious, black house prices have dropped compared to whites because the blacks are encouraged to riot, steal, burn and murder these days. Who, after all, wishes to live next to a BLMer?

    They are also making the usual fudge of comparing median black with average white income. No doubt there’s a difference, but that comparison is meaningless.

  8. When I was learning to programme (yes, it *was* programme in England in those days)

    In Scotland it was “program”. Thus a program to work out a programme was unambiguous. A handy convention.

  9. It’s ironic that progressive policies have tended to exacerbate this disparity in home values. Official policy in the US is largely to discourage single family homes in favor of dense apartments or condos, often restricted as “affordable” units. That varies from locale to locale, with some rural areas being open to building new single family homes and some, often urban “blue” areas, being very hostile. However, at a state level even rural areas are being forced to kow tow, with fire dangers or other environmental reasons given to block these developments.

    Restricting supply has tended to push single family homes up in value, and these tend to be disproportionately owned by whites (especially in white areas, duh). They will also be disproportionately inherited by their white offspring. These areas also succeed in resisting quotas for high density affordable units that when built are often built in minority communities. While you could argue that it’s these minority communities that most need these affordable units, their residents will never garner any equity while they live there, though a lucky handful will get cheap subsidized rent. These policies should also act to push house values in minority communities higher, but it would seem at a slower rate than in white communities.

    The law of supply and demand is a frustrating thing for progressives who just think it ought to be repealed. However, I suppose mandates that houses be appraised equally will enable them to publish statistics that show that wealth is becoming more equally spread, and they’ll hold that lie as long as they can. To make it stick they might have to make it illegal for minorities to sell their house at below appraised value. That’ll keep them put.

  10. @Tim

    “The problem is twofold.”
    No it’s worse than that. It would be a self referential system. If you manage to run the economy someone else will copy your work with sufficient fidelity to predict what you are doing and use that knowledge to front run and cash in to an extent that is really hard to predict.

  11. Thanks for that Richard. Steve Sailer does a good line in ‘noticing’ things that the Respectable Media™ would rather he, and you, didn’t.

  12. If the market says that people are willing to pay $200,000 but the Price Assessment Committee declares that purchasers have to pay $300,000, who on earth is going to be able to afford to buy it?

  13. jgh. Whether someone will buy the house at the Price Assessment Committee’s valuation (or obtain a loan to do so) is not the point. The point is that the Committee can then state that the wealth gap has closed because their assessment says it has.

  14. Bloke in North Dorset

    Here’s an interesting take on the problem:

    https://thosewhocansee.blogspot.com/2021/06/who-is-fleeing-whom.html

    “ The ‘Great Migration,’ waves of Afros moving from the South to the North, began in earnest in 1910, with its second wave after WWII (1945).

    However, the flight of Euro-Americans out of the cities did not truly begin until Blacks were free to live where they pleased– the 1960s. Since then, a sort of merry-go-round has ensued: Whites, suffering under Afro dysfunction, flee to suburbs, only to be pursued by the Talented Tenth fleeing same. The latter are followed, as night follows day, by the Untalented Nine-Tenths, who promptly re-create the urban hellscapes they left behind. Euro-Americans are forced to pack up, and the musical chairs begin again. Section 8 vouchers have revved this carousel up to warp speed.”

  15. BiND, indeed we can never satisfy them.

    White people move away from blacks = White Flight = Racist!.

    White people move back around blacks = gentrification = Racist!

  16. Nerd in West Sussex

    So let’s say they succeed in fudging the selling prices… (That the head of the department responsible for this distortion rejoices under the name Fudge is just too funny), who is expected to pay the new, higher price?

    Even if the goal is, as TD suggests, to create some paper progress on the identified problem, increasing housing costs for the black community will surely offset any political capital gained.

  17. “If the market says that people are willing to pay $200,000 but the Price Assessment Committee declares that purchasers have to pay $300,000, who on earth is going to be able to afford to buy it?”
    Money making opportunity for home owners. Your buyer can borrow $300k by law, pay you for the house, and hand the keys back to the mortgage company wiping the debt, because isn’t that the way things work across the pond? All you need is a friendly arrangement with the buyer, and you house *is* worth $300k to you after all.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *