Jesus, how deluded are these people?

Significantly, the indictment did not trigger a default under Deutsche Bank’s loan documents. Trump and his lenders can exhale, a little. Right now, the prospects of forfeiture and foreclosure and the necessity of refinancing Trump’s loan packages are not staring back at them.

There’s an assumption that if Deutsche asks for repayment then that’s Trump done for. I’ve even seen the assumption that if the $400 million – or whatever – loans are called in then that’s that, Trump’s bust.

No, this isn’t how it works. It’s the difference in value between the properties and the loans that matters. If the properties are worth $4 billion and the loans $400 million then refinancing is as easy as you or I getting a £1,000 overdraft. If the properties are worth $200 million and the loans $400 million then Trump’s fucked. But that’s the bit that never does seem to get mentioned.

It’s insane. I keep seeing this insistence that if those loans are called then Trump’s bust. It’s just not true. Not without a lot more information over the valuations of the properties it’s not at least.

12 thoughts on “Jesus, how deluded are these people?”

  1. Propaganda on the Goebbels model
    They probably aren’t deluded at all, they are just trying to delude the rest of us.

  2. As usual, there is a narrative they’re constructing. Trump beleaguered. Then everything gets seen through the filter of the narrative.

  3. I wonder though, if Douchebank called the loans if he’d have trouble finding another bank willing to lend? The woke would cause a bit of trouble for any bank that did.

  4. The Meissen Bison

    I keep seeing this insistence that if those loans are called then Trump’s bust.

    Refinancing a loan portfolio is not automatically feasable when the value of the security being offered would normally cover the bank’s exposure.

  5. I don’t know anything about the DB loans or the assets they are secured on but, broadly speaking, there is a tonne of capital for real estate lending and much of it won’t give 2 shits about liberal whining.

  6. Isn’t there an old story about the difference between owing the bank a small amount and a large amount.
    Triggering a technical default may be bad for Trump but worse for the bank even if only in the short term.

  7. DB has been teetering on the brink for years, only being kept from Carey Street by the financial machinations of (or on behalf of) Mutti.

  8. Estaban, it works the other way too.

    Why would lenders go to DB if they call in loans without good cause?

  9. Bloke in North Dorset

    “ DB has been teetering on the brink for years, only being kept from Carey Street by the financial machinations of (or on behalf of) Mutti.”

    Indeed. I did wonder if we’re looking down the wrong end of the telescope. If Trump is close to bankruptcy triggering it might not be in DB’s best interest.

  10. I expect the loans are for an amount only slightly less than the total property value. That’s the way many businesses work as they think they can use money more efficiently than the banks they borrow from (and if they’re successful they must be right). So DB might call in loans if they think that large fines are likely as that might take the total net assets below the total loan value.

  11. I find this confusion but blaming it on the media.

    If Trump has an existing loan with the Fuhrers bank and there are T&Cs attached. Now the bank has gone anti-Trump surely it can’t just call in the loans unless he has broken the T&Cs.

    Also is any bank going to call in a loan just to get Trump bankrupt at great They may destroy him but then they will pay that in real money. For example if he owes 400M and can only pay 200M then the bank takes the hit for 200M. Why would they do that?

    Am I missing something here.

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