Extremely rare

We know that rape is incredibly common: one in five women has experienced assault. We also know that false reports are extremely rare: between 2 and 8 per cent.

Rape and assault are not the same thing. 2 to 8 percent is not extremely rare. One estimation of covid mortality is 2% of cases. For which we closed down the global economy. Rare, eh?

14 thoughts on “Extremely rare”

  1. Are we classifying false as demonstrably false only? What’s the percentage of unsupported claims which can’t be put in the true or false columns?

  2. “Surely if 90-odd per cent of rape prosecutions fail”

    They don’t.

    58% of rape-flagged prosecutions in the year ending March 2018 resulted in a conviction (source ONS, latest figures I could find quickly).

    What the Feminazis do is compare conviction rates at trial of most crimes with allegations made to the police of rape.

  3. What the Feminazis do is compare conviction rates at trial of most crimes with allegations made to the police of rape.

    Ah, I see; should have known. So, just 42% of claims are false.

  4. The music industry… Am still marvelling on Walter Yetnikoff’s obituary. Two bottles of vodka/day and a dawn-to-dawn cocaine habit, a stable of girlfriends and succession of wives. And he lived to celebrate his 87th birthday.

  5. @MC: 42% of those which made it to court could not be proved beyond reasonable doubt. I am perfectly willing to believe that includes some guilty buggers who were either good at covering their tracks, lucky or both. Saying they are all false claims is in the same category as saying they are all true and let off by a patriarchal rape culture.

  6. It’s difficult to work out where the false allegations numbers fit in. There’s a CPS report from 2013 that showed 115 prosecution decisions made on false allegations, relative to 5,651 prosecutions, which gets us to 2%.

    However, the prosecutions are around 2% of all allegations (the table below has 1.4%, but this needs to be rounded up for the third of cases that are still being investigated). If we assume false allegations are also to be found in the cases where “evidential difficulties” are included, they could dwarf the prosecutions. But, it’s also possible that prosecutions understate the true number, so the true percentage is hard to pin down.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/901028/crime-outcomes-1920-hosb1720.pdf

    Table 2.2 (rape offences only)
    Charged 1.4%
    Prosecution prevented (or not in public interest) 1.3%
    Evidential difficulties (victim supports action, suspect identified) 13.8%
    Evidential difficulties (victim does not support action) 41%
    Investigation complete no suspect identified 7.7%
    Action taken by another body 1.1%
    Offences not yet assigned an outcome 33.4%

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/publications/perverting_course_of_justice_march_2013.pdf

  7. The late great Angry Harry covers it best in 2013. And since his article the CPS have indeed been caught red-handed trying to run a quota system to jail innocent men for rapes they didn’t do . And the CPS scum had hard evidence that showed the men to be innocent.

    Alison Saunders was allowed to retire quietly after being behind the above caper. The raft of “conspiracy to pervert the course of justice ” charges that should have hit that chunky and unpleasant female in her ample mid-section were never launched. I think that was under Keir Stumour’s “leadership” of the CPS.

    And while her pal and possible partner-in-crime Treason May was PM.

    https://avoiceformen.com/featured/flooded-by-false-rape-allegations/

  8. If 20% of all women have truly experienced sexual assault, then you would never see them leaving the house alone.

    In Seattle, before Ted Bundy was identified as a suspect, young women all over the area were told to take safety precautions. And that was in response to just one man killing less than a fraction of a percent of the population.

    If 20% of women were at risk of violent attacks, martial law would be declared.

    OR, maybe we’re well aware at this point that advocacy groups encourage women to consider an awkward hug to be a form of assault. All so they can get more federal funding for a manufactured crisis. It’s the same thing the SPLC does under the guise of stopping racism and hate. They’re even facing several hefty lawsuits and investigations because of it.

    I’m a man, but by the standards of these surveys, I’ve been “assaulted” by women at least 5 times off the top of my head (many of these incidents involved more than just a hug above the belt, mind you). Pardon me for not exactly running to a shelter over it.

    If I were one of those women who had actually been raped or assaulted, I imagine I’d find this broader definition of violence against women to be highly self-serving and opportunistic at best. People publicly shamed Nancy Grace for engaging in what they saw as victim porn, but somehow these same people are less offended when an entire organization hijacks government policies to affect our daily lives.

  9. https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20091212011933/http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/sexual/sexual13.htm

    This report from 2005 has detailed data. Table 2

    You have to bundle all the different categories into buckets.

    The lowest percentage of false allegations is 8%, but only if we assume all the dropped cases are not false. The highest percentage (if we count all the unknowns – dropped cases etc) is 77%. If we compare convictions and suspect unknowns as true allegations and compare to false + no assault, the percentage of false is 42% – this ignores all the ones that are dropped due to insufficient evidence, victim declines to proceed etc, also ignores all the acquittals. Add in acquittals to false and no evidence and compare to convictions and suspect unknowns and we get to 57% false.

    All we can say is that is somewhere is a wide range.

  10. In the US a few years ago they started whining about “rape culture” and claimed that 1 in 5 women on college campuses had been “sexually assaulted”. The trick was that they gave women a survey and if you checked “yes” that someone had touched you in a way you didn’t like or kissed you, etc. they called it assault. There were women who had been “raped” dozens of times in college and didn’t even know it.

    The real clincher was that the women howling about this horrible situation were sending their own daughters off to these hotbeds of “rape culture”.

  11. “One estimation of covid mortality is 2% of cases.”

    I would respectfully suggest that that figure is an outlier.

    Most studies show much smaller numbers I believe, which makes your point even more salient, of course.

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