Brexit predictions

Brexit is about to give us a problem with this, though. Karl Marx was right: wages won’t rise when there’s spare labour available, his “reserve army” of the unemployed. The capitalist doesn’t have to increase pay to gain more workers if there’s a squad of the starving eager to labour for a crust. But if there are no unemployed, labour must be tempted away from other employers, and one’s own workers have to be pampered so they do not leave. When capitalists compete for the labour they profit from, wages rise.

Britain’s reserve army of workers now resides in Wroclaw, Vilnius, Brno, the cities of eastern Europe. The Polish plumbers of lore did flood in and when the work dried up they ebbed away again. The net effect of Brexit will be that British wages rise as the labour force shrinks and employers have to compete for the sweat of hand and brow.

That Feb 2019 prediction is looking pretty good now, isn’t it?

18 thoughts on “Brexit predictions”

  1. But, but, but….being in the glorious EU with access to all those Polish blokes was absolutely in no way at all responsible for stagnating wages among certain groups in the UK over the last ten – fifteen years. That’s just a nasty Nigel Farage-esque lie put about by evil Brexiteers.

  2. Of course Marx did not have the concept of the Dole to consider. I suspect that many low paid jobs will remain unfulfilled because they do not pay enough to come off benefits. Our new reservoir of Shitholistanis arriving on Kent beaches could be usefully utilised there.

    (ps Brunn – pah Brno, I have a Slovak friend whom I wind up by calling Bratislava Pressburg – was a boom town when I lived in those parts, it was a magnet for IT types (IBM were very big there).

  3. In Marxian terminology, The Dole is just another employer, albeit one that refuses to raise “wages” and doesn’t care if it loses “employees”, but still one that the other employers compete against to buy labour.

  4. Our dear imported friends dodged both work and soap in the Old Country–without any benefits handouts. I doubt that they will be seized over here by any spirit other than that of the Lazy and Criminal.+Rapey of course.

    Time we returned to the political /bureaucratic classes some of the pain their imported pals have caused the ordinary folk of the UK. Big Problem if you are a decent UK soul rather than an imported child-molester with cultural endorsement for your evil. And active assistance from UK socialist scum–inc Bluelabour. But our men can wait until their daughters are a bit older.

    Of course you can imagine the sentences that would be given to a white man who raped and attempted to pimp out the young adult daughter of some political grandee. No “she’s a scrubber anyway” bollocks from the costumed thugs and Council scumbags then.

    Just a thought experiment. But one we should learn from in our responses to our new arrivals. Give them not an inch and no benefit of any doubt. Any transgression and back to the waiting arms of their Taliban mates. Dropped by parachute over Afghan airspace.

  5. Apart from its not Brexit thats driven Pavlov and his mates back to Bratislava, its covid……the shock of Brexit occurred in 2016, if anyone was going to leave they’d have done it then, because of the uncertainty. By the time we got to the legal exit date all the residency etc rules and regs had been sorted and everyone knew they had the absolute right to stay in the UK if they were here on the exit date. So why would the purely administrative leaving date make anyone leave at that point when they hadn’t during the previous 4 uncertain years? Answer they wouldn’t, just that a massive global pandemic hit about a month later and many considered it safer to be in rural Eastern Europe than packed into bedsits in London. And if they had been furloughed even more reason to leave, who was going to check up if they were even in the country?

  6. Jim,
    It’s not a static workforce, rather there’s a constant flux. Pre-Brexit, workers from Poland would come for a few years then go home. Post-Brexit those who want to go home still can; but those who want to come here can’t.

    Between 2016 and 2019 we had switched off the tap but there was still water in the hose. Now we’re down to the last drops, and finally seeing the effect on labour markets.

  7. This is all solvable by reducing dole payments. Boris should announce that the money will be spent on the NHS instead.

  8. Shirley, a worker from Shitholia can still work for up to 3months on the UK ?
    Even when we were in the EU, I was only allowed to work for 180days in Germany before I had to register with the various authorities and in Holland I had to register and pay tax from Day One.

  9. @Addolff: “why a race to the bottom?” Ah, why a tired propaganda phrase?

    But to pretend you meant it literally: because the govt has it in its power to cut the dole.

  10. Dearimeie, not a tired propaganda phrase, a genuine observation and something that appears to be confirmed by the current situation regarding lorry drivers.
    I believe raising the wages of the lower paid has more benefit than lowering the wages of the higher paid.
    What about you?

  11. As an aside, I know people on benefits. Not wasters or skivers, people who have paid into the system for 40 years and now need help. They struggle to survive and lowering what they get will cause some of them to kill themselves…….

  12. Funny, but in my own personal experience I’ve seen my wage rise (directly and through increased benefits) over the last couple of years simply by being more efficient.

    And during a time of high unemployment too.

  13. ” Addolff
    September 7, 2021 at 11:02 am

    dearime, why a race to the bottom? Raise wages eh?”

    Then you raise the dole and we’re back in the exact same place.

    Dole is an employer all other employers are competing against – except its one that can infinitely raise wages offered by the simple expedient of taking, at gunpoint, the money from other employers.

  14. ” Addolff
    September 7, 2021 at 5:26 pm

    As an aside, I know people on benefits. Not wasters or skivers, people who have paid into the system for 40 years and now need help. They struggle to survive and lowering what they get will cause some of them to kill themselves…….”

    Sorry, that card has been played too many times.

    Its always some anecdote about an edge case that is trotted out to justify bad policy. Sorry about your mates – why don’t you kick them a few bills of your own.

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