My German solutoin

CDU/CSU, AfD, FDP.

24%, 11%, 11%.

Beats SDP plus Greens.

25%, 15%.

The Commies didn’t even get into Parliament – apparently.

Sadly, that ain’t what’s gonna happen but one can hope, right?

14 thoughts on “My German solutoin”

  1. Bloke in North Dorset

    It looks like Linke has won 3 direct mandate seats so the 5% barrier for party list seats is removed, AIUI.

    CDU/CSU lost 9% of their vote, they really need to spend some time in the wilderness and sort themselves out.

    And the election was a complete disaster in Berlin, where they ran the Berlin marathon at the same time. There were reports of long queues at polling closing time and some polling stations running out of ballot papers and they couldn’t get new ones because of road closures. There’s talk of taking the result there to the courts for a rerun.

    The AFD was the second largest party in the old East Germany and the largest party in Saxony.

    Merkle could still be there at Christmas if the FDP, Greens and SPD stick to their pre-election statements on their coalition red lines – unlikely as these are politicians, but you never know.

  2. Voting was held up in Wuppertal due to an UXB being uncovered.

    In Graz, Austria, the proper Communists won the local election, which was nice to see.

  3. Your team will be the opposition despite getting more votes, just like in Canada where Trudeau “won” by getting fewer votes than O’Toole.

  4. There’s been an update; somehow overnight they’ve switched seats from CSU to SPD. SPD is up 9, CSU down 5, a shift of 14. Funny that.

    Also 5 seats shifted from from AfD to FDP, but that is probably has less effect on what finally emerges.

    In seats, if my maths is right, I think CDU, FDP and AfD together would have a slim majority, but didn’t FDP say they wouldn’t join a coalition with AfD?

    SPD, Left and Green together are just short of a majority, but might survive if the opposition never works together? I don’t know the Kraut system well enough.

    Greens and FDP together with either of the two big ones gives a big majority, but I would be very sorry to see the Free Democrats propping up an economically illiterate, eco-authoritarian Green agenda.

  5. Bloke in North Dorset

    RichardT,

    There was a lot of postal voting, more than any other election, which accounted for those changes. Of course postal votes aren’t the most secure form of voting.

  6. Also they count the constituency results first and then calculate the list proportions, so the result remains fluid until that is achieved.

  7. Bloke in North Korea (Germany province)

    No one will form a coalition with AfD. Ever. Look, I have some (if limited) sympathy for them but they should have kicked out the brownshirts when they had the opportunity. Now they are in the driving seat.

    The FDP missed a trick, both they and the greens more or less halved their result because of inept leadership. And as predicted, the anti-rona vote split between FW and dieBasis, neither party made it in.

    The actual coalition will probably depend on what the SPD and Union stitch up. The first thing they will agree is not to do a Groko again, because that will ruin both parties 4 years from now. Then its a case of which party gets to talk to the others and insist on as much of what the SPD and Union have in common in a “take it or leave it” negotiation. The threat of it will be used by one to take the whip hand in coalition negotiations.

    My money is on Union/FDP/Green. Lindner is desperate for a job – so desperate he would sell out his country for it. He’s already sold out his principles for it.

    Fresh elections within a year is not unlikely.

    Who would like to guess whether Antifa will remain solidly loyal to the Union?

  8. Not sure what you mean with regard to the FDP – the polling is fairly static back to May, and they seem to have ended up matching those polls.

    The Greens were polling at the 20% mark back in late July, early August, and lost about five points or so. The Union seems to have been the main beneficiary, by my eyeballs.

    Was that the flooding?

  9. Thered been reports of CDU/CSU voters being reluctant to switch to the FDP because they feared the FDP would do a deal with the greens. Seems like they had a point:

    “ Leader of the business-friendly Free Democrats in Germany confirms his party has decided to start pre-exploratory talks with the Greens.

    After that “we are open” to talk to the conservatives or the social democrats, Lindner adds.”

    https://twitter.com/alexandravonnah/status/1442453228885397512?s=21

  10. Bloke in North Dorset

    It’s not just here that support for old parties is crashing through disillusionment with elites:

    “ #OTD in 1998, Helmut Kohl lost the German elections. He’d run again following 16 years in office. The result: SPD 40.9%, CDU/CSU 35.1%, Greens, 6.7%. Puts yesterday’s results into perspective…”

    Also from the author in the same thread!

    “ She’s a stable hand and nobody can doubt her sense of duty. But her foreign policy has been indecisive while internally she was too controlling so that there is now a dearth of political talent in her camp. She overpromoted obedient bureaucrats while sidelining talented rivals.”

    If you’re vaguely interested in German politics and history Katja is worth a follow.

    https://twitter.com/hoyer_kat/status/1442594114705530882?s=21

  11. Bloke in North Korea (Germany province)

    With the numbers as predicted the FDP can only get into government if they do a deal with the greens. And as the FDP’s current sole reason for existence is to get C Lindner a ministerial job, they will compromise on everything to achieve it.

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