National Grid is forecasting a winter margin – the buffer between supply and peak demand – of 3.9GW, or 6.6pc, with a range of between 4.2pc and 8pc.

And what’s it going to be on a still few days with a nice high pressure area over the country?

22 thoughts on “Ah, yes”

  1. Clearly, they should have available 100% backup at all times. Thus when relying on windmills they need to have 100% fossil and nuclear always ready to go.

    And one and one is two.

  2. On Friday (October 15) combined cycle gas turbines similar to the Severn Power and Sutton Bridge plants were generating 54.3pc of British power, with coal another 2.8pc.

    National Grid is working towards being able to run the system without using gas-fired power for at least a couple of hours at a time by 2025, under efforts to decarbonise.

    Soooo…. They’re going to somehow find some alternative for that 50+% in power consumption in three years?
    Dunno what they’re smoking, but it gives some mighty hallucinations…

  3. Bloke near Worcester

    National Grid is working towards being able to run the system without using gas-fired power for at least a couple of hours at a time by 2025,

    …2am to 4am on a very windy Sunday morning one assumes

  4. The trouble is that this nonsense has developed under series of governments: Blair, Brown, Cameron/Clegg, Cameron, May, and Johnson. In a country where it takes forever to get anything done, and the government refuses to acknowledge the problem, we are in a fix and it seems likely to last for a while.

    My own policy is to sack Johnson and throw everything into reverse, with exemptions from planning permission law if needs be. But it won’t happen until there is an almighty crisis, will it?

  5. @John B

    An emergency windmill building program is exactly what they are doing with plans to quadruple our offshore capacity by offshore wind capacity by 2030 ……. and completely ignoring the fact that four times zero is still zero.

  6. But with gas supply being a serious issue I don’t see how this will help. If push comes to shove, electricity will be cut first – it’s easy to turn back on when the situation improves. But if an area has gas interruptions, engineers have to visit EVERY property (to ensure no appliances have been left on), or isolate them externally, before restoring the supply. There is also the aspect that gas demand will immediately reduce when the ‘leccy goes down, because gas boilers & CH systems need it to operate and power the circulating pumps. That’s why I have been organising back-up supplies to keep my boiler running.

  7. If there is any powercut anywhere in UK ( non-accidental that is) then all power (save phones/computers etc needed for national defence) goes out at all Bogus Johnson’s homes/places of residence /hotel rooms etc. No light, heat, hot water, cooking –nothing. Power stays off until power is restored to blacked out areas. Not allowed in lifts so has to take stairs.

    And the difference in wealth between Blojob J’s and a poor UK person is calculate and Johnson’s personal gas/elec bills are increased by the same proportion as his wealth is above the ord poorly off. So he gets gas/elec bills for £100,000s at a time. The extra money can go to charity but it all has to come out of Johnson’s personal resources.

    That might liven the fucking FUB’s ideas up a bit.

  8. I haven’t gone the full Cummings, but I have ordered a battery powered lantern and a portable gas ring. So at least we’ll still have light and hot food when the power goes off.

    How great to be living in the 21st century!

  9. A conversation I just made up between an Ordinary Punter, OP, and a climate catastrophist, CC.

    OP: “I said we couldn’t rely on wind turbines. When the wind doesn’t blow they don’t bloody work!”

    CC [smugly]: “There’s a reason for that. Global Stilling.”

    OP: “Global Stilling?”

    CC: “That’s right. Climate Change caused by evil CO2 because of man’s sins has reduced the power of the wind and caused long calm spells. It’s all your fault.”

    OP: “You’ve just made that up! There’s no such thing.”

    CC: “No, it’s real. There’s models and papers and everything. Peer reviewed papers.
    Global Warming has caused Global Stilling. It’s science.”

    OP: “But last week you were moaning about increases in hurricane frequency and intensity. Now you’re saying there’s no wind. You can’t have it both ways.”

    CC: [giggles]: “Of course I can. Hurricanes are much, much worse, but when they’re not blowing there’s less wind. It’s Science.”

    OP: “So let me get this straight. You’re saying that because of global warming the windmills won’t be turning half the time but you still want to close all the coal and gas power stations and build more windmills. And Boris want’s to make us into the Saudi Arabia of wind just as we pass peak wind and start plummeting down the other side. You lot are mad!”

    CC [makes sign of the wind turbine with fingers to ward of the devil.] “Denier! Heretic! Ban him! Cancel him! Burn him!”

  10. Dave Ward, if it came to a major gas outage the requirement for individual inspections would probably get worked around. Most of Melbourne was cut off from natural gas supply for a few weeks in 1998 (look up Longford gas explosion). For once, public information campaigns worked, everyone shut off their supply at the meter as instructed, and when gas was flowing again got their appliances relit as per guidance. As I recall there was an odds and evens street number thing for turning your gas back on to reduce the instantaneous demand. Worked fine.
    Restoring electricity grids from system blackout is actually much dicier to make work, although if it is only load shedding you’re recovering from (sorry, we’re supposed to call that demand management now) it’s a lot easier.

  11. My guess is that we’re about to watch the much anticipated wave of climate refugees, from high latitudes to closer to the equator.

  12. @Ltw: But thats 1998 Australia so predominantly white people who were being asked to do the responsible thing. Try doing the same with a suitably ‘diverse’ population and see how it works out…..cue whole streets exploding as the gas is turned back on. Remember the Grenfell tower fire started because some putative Ethiopian brain surgeon’s fridge caught fire and instead of dealing with it he just f*cked off………

  13. Living out in the countryside with no mains gas and electricity coming in overhead, we experience power cuts quite often – sometimes as much as four times a year. These are usually fairly short from a few seconds to many minutes. In 35 years, we have, though, had some quite long cuts. Once the overhead transformer blew and we had no power for four days. We’ve had half a dozen cuts from two hours to half a day, and one Christmas a brown-out.

    We take all this in our stride. We have a 2Kw generator (runs the fridge, freezer and microwave). We have a lead-acid battery and a 600w inverter (runs lights and TV). We have two portable gas stoves (butane cans), and a 6 Kw multi-fuel stove with plenty of logs and coal.

    Okay, it all sounds over the top, but we’ve needed all this kit over the years. Plus, we both lived through the cuts and three-day weeks in the 70s. Besides, after a lifetime in engineering, I’m always cautious and prepared.

    More widely, all this green c**p is going to end in disaster. The UK does not have the generation or distribution to support electric cars, heat pumps, and all the other idiotic ideas. And for what? To reduce our CO2 to net zero when – even if CO2 is a problem, and I don’t think it is – our output is less than one per cent of the world’s. China doesn’t give a stuff with its, what, 600 coal-fired power stations. Our politicians, supported by bought and paid for so-called scientists, really are cretins.

    I’ll stop now before I turn into Mr Ecks!

  14. Dearieme asks But it won’t happen until there is an almighty crisis, will it?

    That we are capable only of being what we are remains our unforgivable sin. Being what we are means that Pain shall always be our most effective tutor.

  15. . . . plans to quadruple our offshore capacity by offshore wind capacity by 2030 . . .

    Why are the Royals getting involved in this and demanding action? Follow the money. The Sovereign Grant (replaced the old Civil List) is 15% of the income from the Crown Estate.

    .

    https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/2861/guide-to-offshore-wind-farm-2019.pdf

    “The Crown Estate manages the seabed around England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The Energy Act 2004 vests rights to The Crown Estate to license the generation of renewable energy on the continental shelf within the Renewable Energy Zone out to 200nm.

    In 2001, The Crown Estate announced the first UK offshore wind leasing round and since has run two further leasing rounds in 2003 and 2008. To the end of 2018, thirty-nine offshore wind farms had been built by the sector, with ambition to grow the offshore wind farm operating capacity from 6.9GW at the end of 2017, to 30GW in the 2030s.

    The UK represents the global leading market opportunity for offshore wind, both in terms of operating projects and the development pipeline. To supplement this and ensure increasing demand for offshore wind can be met, The Crown Estate is increasing the depth of an already active portfolio. Last year, The Crown Estate completed its initial assessment of offshore wind farm extension applications, confirming that proposed projects, representing up to 3.4GW of potential new capacity, satisfied application criteria. Subject to the outcome of a plan-level Habitats Regulation Assessment (HRA), successful developers could be granted lease agreements in summer 2019.

    It is also currently working with the sector and stakeholders to explore the scale, location and form of proposed new leasing rights. Following this, it intends to confirm plans for a new offshore wind leasing round, to be known as Round 4. This could be launched in the early part of 2019, maintaining a pipeline of projects through to the late 2020s and beyond.”

    .

    The money for Royal poncing about is coming from this insane indulgence in unicorn farts (there’s even one on their crest). They have a direct financial incentive to stick their oar into politics, even at the cost of us freezing in the dark.

    Bill Shatner for Commonwealth President!

  16. Bloke in North Korea (Germany province)

    “We have two portable gas stoves (butane cans), and a 6 Kw multi-fuel stove with plenty of logs and coal”

    Once I finally get my kitchen done I will have 2 or 3 rings run off propane cylinders (can’t get mains gas here), alongside some induction and other snazzy electrically-powered stuff. Because I just like cooking on gas, but obviously will be a nice to have when the electricity goes off. As long as I am allowed to buy propane in future, of course.

  17. The Original Jonathan

    I’ve got a wind-up lantern and keep a couple of plumbing gas cylinders to hand, but I’ve been pondering getting a UPS to give the server chance for a managed shutdown.

  18. You don’t need a licence or to register ownership anywhere if you own a crossbow.

    Just think that might be a wise investment the way things are going. Primarily for self defence of course.

  19. “You don’t need a licence or to register ownership anywhere if you own a crossbow. Just think that might be a wise investment the way things are going. Primarily for self defence of course.”

    I had the same thought, but I bought an AR-15 instead of a crossbow.

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