Being very cruel about this

My bile rises as I’m asked to move my dying cancer patient out of ICU to make room for an unvaccinated man with Covid
Ranjana Srivastava

Umm, but why is a dying cancer patient in ICU?

ICU being a place to try to stop folks dying, isn’t it, not somewhere where people do?

Or is triage something that the NHS is supposed to protect us from?

67 thoughts on “Being very cruel about this”

  1. Is there a single well documented case of this actually happening? There seems to be a precedent for those who come out with this kind of statement quickly being exposed as liars.

  2. ’… while many of my patients die prematurely, it is important for the family to know that we did all we could.’

    Just checking, this is the same NHS where a generous benefactor had to stump up the money for a little girl with Pectus Excavatum because the NHS has stopped treating it, yes?

  3. ICU is for the potentially salvageable patients. Oncologists are not generally great at realising that an 80% 5 year survival rate does not apply if the patient has multi organ failure due to neutropaenic sepsis.

    That said, haematologists are much worse.

  4. Was the cancer patient given a choice? Noisy ICU or quiet palliative care? Private health insurance offers that choice but not the NHS where some wise bureacrat decides.

  5. What if the cancer patient gave himself his own cancer through smoking? That would be a laugh, wouldn’t it?

    These entitled cunts make me sick.

    Do your fucking job, love, and stop whining.

    I’d like to see the day she writes articles in the Guardian complaining about having to treat recidivistically violent feral scum who came off worse in the knife fights they started.

    We don’t give these almighty egotists the right to choose between who to treat out of two drivers in a head-on smash – the one who was 10mph under the speed limit or the one who was 10mph over it (or 20mph and pissed, or 50mph and pissed and tripping). We tell them to get on and fucking treat them, or find themselves another job.

    We don’t (yet) threaten not to treat people with conditions brought on by other choices they make, such as to smoke, or to drink or eat to excess, or to take little exercise.

    What next?

    ‘My bile rises as I’m asked to move my dying cancer patient out of ICU to make room for a teenaged girl who unsuccessfully [though undoubtedly deliberately and therefore selfishly] tried to hang herself and was cut down in cardiac arrest’?

    Cunts. If she wants bile, she’s only got to wait a bit longer. There’s a fucking ocean of it out here in the real world and when it starts pouring out I predict it will get very nasty very quickly.

  6. @Stonyground

    Is there a single well documented case of this actually happening? There seems to be a precedent for those who come out with this kind of statement quickly being exposed as liars.

    I very much doubt it’s true. Two days ago the acting director for Wales of the Royal College of Surgeons, one Susan Hill, gave an interview to BBC news in which she claimed, while theatrically purporting to check the details on a piece of paper on her desk, that there were 42 Covid patients on ventilators in ICU in Univ Hosp Cardiff where she was working.

    A quick check of StatsWales for the same day showed that – would you believe it – she was fucking lying.

    In fact, on Jan 11, there were seven – one sixth of the total she claimed.

    There were only 35 in the whole of Wales.

    What’s more, her broader point – that it was touch and go whether her recovering surgical case would get a bed – was also demonstrable balls. The stats show plenty of ICU beds available, even if some of the staff are off ‘sick’ with the Greek cold, making Tiktok videos and eating.

  7. As I understand it, patients who have had a Covid vaccine injection within the last fourteen (?) days are described as ‘unvaccinated’.

    So, assuming this is correct, is anyone maintaining records of ICU and/or ward patients split into three groups (unvaccinated, just-vaccinated and vaccinated), and (if yes) are these figures generally available?

  8. By the way, on the wider subject of Covid, something inspired me the other day to go back to the early days of the whole shitshow and see what I thought and therefore wrote here (and what others thought and wrote) at the time.

    Mildly interesting. My views certainly changed not long after this.

    One or two faces we no longer see, too – did the rona get them, or the ennui?

    https://www.timworstall.com/2020/03/apologies-2/#comments

    https://www.timworstall.com/2020/03/seriously-polly-2/#comments

  9. @Davidsb Of course they aren’t available, especially not generally. Imagine third parties being able to check whether people are telling porkers or not..

  10. What other examples can we all come up with of “people who shouldn’t be treated because they brought it on themselves”?
    Always handy to have a long list of examples when debating a pro-not-treating-unvaccinated-people person.

    So far:
    Suicide attempts
    Overweight illnesses
    Smokers
    Sexual Transmitted Disease (wear a condom)
    Drug related diseases/over doses
    Car accidents (don’t speed)

    Workplace illnesses? Eg. Black lung Not only are they transferring the cost of their lucrative mining careers to us, but they also helped destroy the environment. Refusing treatment is a double whammy of woke.

    What other ones can we think of?

  11. Ooh
    Just thought of one.

    Taking an experimental vaccine, with unknown short and long term side effects.

    Got myocarditis? On your own pal. Should have waited for full approval. >:)

  12. @ Chernyy Drakon
    January 13, 2022 at 9:51 am

    What other examples can we all come up with of “people who shouldn’t be treated because they brought it on themselves”?
    Always handy to have a long list of examples when debating a pro-not-treating-unvaccinated-people person.

    If you mean just anyone getting medical treatment the list is endless. But if you confine it to ICU (which seems to be their line of attack):

    Pregnant women where the delivery goes awry – they knew the risks.
    Women in for abortions – ditto.
    Rugby players who consent to the risk of bangs on the head and suffer bleeds on the brain.
    Boxers who consent to the certainty of bangs on the head and suffer bleeds on the brain.
    In fact, anyone doing any sport with a risk of serious injury that might require ICU – climbing, skiing, TT racing etc.
    Anyone who walks onto the ice and falls in.
    Anyone who dives into the sea to rescue their dog.
    Anyone who uses a ladder improperly to selfishly clean his own guttering and falls off, thus solipsistically depriving someone who responsibly employed a trained contractor to do the job using a scaffolding tower but then had a fucking heart attack when he saw the bill.

    I could go on.

  13. Is there a single well documented case of this actually happening? There seems to be a precedent for those who come out with this kind of statement quickly being exposed as liars.

    What Interested said. As a pureblood myself (hey, somebody’s got to be in the control group), I’ve a personal interest in checking these things because I’m not ideologically or philosophically opposed to vaccines, but I am opposed to lies.

    There was another senior NHS twat a month ago who claimed 80% of their Covid patients were unvaccinated. This was, probably not coincidentally, at the exact same time as they were trying to convince you that yet another injection of Mystery Fluid offers 85% protection against Omicron.

    Both claims were absolute fucking bollocks, as the NHS patient figures at the time, and the subsequent blitzkrieg of Omicron through the vaccinated population showed. Medical professionals are simply lying through their teeth and being given an uncritical platform to do so by the MSM and Big Tech. But if you disagree with them and bring facts and logic to the table to explain why, you’re likely to be banned from public discourse.

    Back to the Guardian’s latest script for Casualty:

    My disbelief must be open because it prompts the rueful explanation that a Covid patient needs an intensive care bed.

    The pieces fall together instantly. With intensive care at capacity, I am being asked to move my patient to make room for another. “After all, your patient does have incurable cancer.”

    My bile rises. And even as I know it’s a petty question, I can’t help asking: “Is the Covid patient vaccinated?”

    “No,” he says wearily. “That’s why he is so sick.”

    The dialogue is pretty on-the-nose but that’s what the audience wants. Calendar fans may notice a plot hole tho – we are two years into this pandemic. Two long, annoying, occasionally toilet paper starved years in which the government has thrown countless billions of freshly printed debt at the NHS, including building several brand new hospitals that weren’t needed.

    And she’s telling us they’re still rationing ventilators.

    Keeping my voice steady, I say: “If you are asking for my permission to withdraw care tonight, I can’t give it. My patient may have cancer, but she deserves a chance.”

    As I worry about alienating him, his voice breaks.

    My patient died quickly in intensive care. When we spoke, her family was grateful for our compassion and care and could not fault the system.

    And everybody stood up and clapped and carried her on their shoulders while chanting “O Captain, my Captain!”

    And that patient’s name? Albert Einstein.

  14. Do your fucking job, love, and stop whining.

    Very much agreed. I’m sick of these cunts who think they are Jesus (only with selective compassion).

    As per Jan 11, there were fewer patients in mechanical ventilation beds than on Sept 11.

  15. @Steve

    And that patient’s name? Albert Einstein.

    Oh no, Fawlty.

    ‘Keeping my voice steady, I say: “If you are asking for my permission to withdraw care tonight, I can’t give it. My patient may have cancer, but she deserves a chance.”’

    Going by the above piece of dialogue, notwithstanding that it is so improbable that it might have come straight from a gusset-dampener by Madeup McCliche and serialised in the Hackneyed Gazette, it’s more likely to have been Alberta Einstein (for of course it was a woman, of course!)

    I further venture that it was probably Fatima Al-birta Aynstayn, because in this day and age you’re hardly going to make up a character like this and not have her Muslim.

    Unlike me, you actually read the fucking thing – hats off – but when you find out the imaginary woman made-uply died within a few invented hours… well, you’d have to have a heart of stone etc

  16. Mon plaisir, Cherny.

    I have actually used the car accident one and the suicide one to shut these fuckers up in real life, and it works.

  17. “Medical professionals are simply lying through their teeth”: ‘fraid so. Lots of drama-queening too.

    It would be satisfying if ever there were a reckoning but there won’t be.

    P.S. The first of Interested’s links reminds me that away back then I commended this
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf

    “UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011”. I think it still reads well. It recommends stocking personal protective equipment for hospital staff , use of antiviral medications, and that people who are ill should stay at home and minimise contacts. It dismisses the utility of masks for the general public, suggests that restrictions on flights are likely to prove futile, argues against what we now call “lockdown”, and says that general closures of schools should be avoided. Sane and proportionate, I’d say.

    The only false note is its hope for vaccines, but then it was discussing not Covid but the flu, for which the vaccines are at least safe (though, as we now know, ineffective).

    The other day Dan Hannan said that a Swedish MEP had told him that the British strategy was the one the Swedes adopted and that they wondered why the British hadn’t stuck to it. I suppose the answer is that Boris has a jelly where his backbone should be.

  18. “senior NHS twat a month ago who claimed 80% of their Covid patients were unvaccinated”

    But’s that’s what’s you fucking *expect*. That hospitalised patients with disease X are those who aren’t immune to disease X, that’s why they’ve fucking well caught it.

    In fact, I’m rather more interested in the fact that 20% of Covid patients are *vaccinated*. That states baldly that vaccination isn’t 100% effective. If they get their dream that 0% of Covid patients are unvaccinated that can only come about by vaccines being completely ineffective.

    (Ok, the numbers are more subtle than this, but the idiots demonstrate that their brains can’t actually handle real sums.)

  19. @dearieme

    A good find, thanks for the link.

    No lockdown, school closures to be avoided, no point in closing borders, anyone not actually ill to be encouraged to carry on as normal.

    And all the above with the expectation of “up to 210,000 – 315,000 additional deaths across the UK over a 15 week period” (para 7.20). We haven’t had that in 18 months.

  20. while many of my patients die prematurely

    Not exactly a ringing endorsement of your medical competence, duckie.

  21. @jgh

    In fact, I’m rather more interested in the fact that 20% of Covid patients are *vaccinated*.

    See the latest weekly surveillance report for weeks 49-52 at

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1045329/Vaccine_surveillance_report_week_1_2022.pdf

    Table 11 – Hospitalised for at least one inpatient night:
    3462 unvaccinated
    6385 vaccinated (of whom 5283 had had both doses more than 14 days before)

    Table 12 – Died ‘within 28 days of a positive test’:
    809 unvaccinated
    1949 two-dose vaccinated

    Of course, these figures are skewed by the fact that more older people have been jacked up than younger, and by the fact that older people die of something (so lots of these deaths, in both columns, may be with rather than of). But it’s interesting.

  22. One more for the list:-

    The progeny of individuals who followed the norms of their culture by marrying their cousins.

  23. Interested – interesting.

    So it’s a pandemic of the vaccinated now.

    From today’s Glasgow Herald:

    DOUBLE-JABBED Scots are now more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid than the unvaccinated amid an increase in elderly people falling ill due to waning immunity.

    It comes amid “weird” data showing that case rates have been lower in unvaccinated individuals than the single, double, or even triple-jabbed since Omicron became the dominant variant in Scotland.

    There’s likely demographic self-sorting going on here. The unvaxxed are more likely to be young, healthy, and might not even know they have the virus. The vaccinated skew older and sicker.

    But it does suggest that, at best, the jabs aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. And we still don’t know if there’s any long term ill effects of the jabs, though it’s getting harder to ignore or explain away the apparent spike in young, healthy, vaccinated athletes suddenly experiencing heart trouble. Especially since, when Trusted Officials lie openly and egregiously, people start crowdsourcing their own theories.

    The unseemly rush to stick multiple needles of novel drugs in every single vein with a pulse regardless of their statistical risk from Covid was a great idea, wasn’t it Ted?

  24. A thought experiment on a limiting case: if the Covid vaccine killed everyone subjected to it then 100% of the Covid patients in the ICU would be unvaccinated.

    Another thought experiment: if people within a couple of weeks of their second jab are superspreaders of the virus then the jab potentially saves their lives but infects their neighbours. (And, alas, there is some evidence for this effect.)

  25. @John

    Not sure that counts as the individuals’ fault. They can’t exactly stop their parents being cousins. Maybe on that one, we just have to invoice the parents?

  26. @dearieme

    Similar statistical treatment for my patent cancer treatment: guaranteed 100% effective – Sodium Cyanide.

    Lies, damned lies and statistics. Then we have statistics reported by “journalists” – is Level 2.

    See also the “Alec Baldwin Gun Handling Test”

  27. Cherny, but those kids will STILL grow up and marry off their kids to cousins, so perpetuating the problem.
    The whole fucking lot of them are responsible.

    IIRC, they are 13 times more likely to have congenital defects and 7 times more likely to need long term care for same.

  28. Bloke in North Dorset

    There’s a simple retort to doctors who want to moralise about others’ lifestyle choices – fuck off and join the church.

    Anyway, as the definition of unvaccinated includes those that have had 2 jabs, including those who can’t have the booster because of time restrictions, and those who are hospitalised within 14 days of having the booster, I’d want to know a far lot more about the situation before taking anyones word.

  29. There’s a simple retort to doctors who want to moralise about others’ lifestyle choices – fuck off and join the church.

    So they can lecture us about our carbon footprint

  30. BinND… Over the years we all accumulate friends, drinking acquaintances and golfing partners from within the medical profession. Can’t recall the subject of lifestyle or morality being raised. Most were addicted to anything in a skirt, drank like the proverbial and more often than not smoked.

  31. Just a question. Who is more likely to be spreading this thing? The unvaccinated who apparently suffer more symptoms, or the vaccinated who may be infected but not know it and carry on merrily socialising? And if the latter, which group should we be excluding from public spaces a lá Macron?

  32. Hang on a minute……

    According to various usually reliable web-based sources (OK, Wikipedia and the Guardian) Dr Ranjana Srivastava works in Victoria, Australia.

    Bugger all to do with the NHS, which, in this area as so many others, is The Envy Of The World….

  33. Quoting stats for general admissions isn’t so useful if you’re talking about ICU, which has a different patient mix – need to be salvageable and be able to recover from ventilation, so most of the oldies get ruled out, but you need to be very sick to need it in the first place. The data you really want is in the ICNARC reports https://www.icnarc.org/our-audit/audits/cmp/reports

    Of patients with a positive Covid test in ICU, the proportion unvaccinated is 61%, but this isn’t just an age effect from younger people being less likely to be vaccinated – if you straitfy by age group, unvaccinated ICU patients are massively disproportionate compared to the general population (lat every age. This is consistent with the vaccine being protective against severe disease.

  34. “Dr Ranjana Srivastava works in Victoria, Australia.”

    But, but, but – Vic has had lockdowns of positively Nazi severity. How come it has any Covid cases?

  35. “This is consistent with the vaccine being protective against severe disease.”

    It’s also consistent with the vaccine killing people who would otherwise be particularly vulnerable to severe Covid.

    I’ll grant this to economists: they are often better on the seen vs the unseen than doctors are.

  36. Mind you, if fracking were ever to be permitted in the UK, I would prefer it if the idiot class who protested against it were excluded from its consumption and, in fact, suffered fuel surcharges

  37. My wife worked in ICU for decades in multiple countries, this is a pretty routine situation and triage of ICU patients has always been one of those subjects not discussed in public as it would upset people if they knew what was going on
    Yesterday we were told locally that ambulance services have received 35k calls related to drugs overdoses etc in a year, nearly 100 a day and it had increased 30% in a year, but hey it’s not Covid

  38. @anon

    Sure, the vaccine provides some protection. For a brief period, after which it appears to dip *below* that of unvaccinated people… so you need another booster, and then another.

    Though yesterday (I think it was) the EMA said ah no maybe we won’t be recommending a booster merry-go-round after all, on the basis that it is slowly but surely destroying immune systems.

    Maybe they’d had a preview of today’s Porridge Wog Herald:

    DOUBLE-JABBED Scots are now more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid than the unvaccinated amid an increase in elderly people falling ill due to waning immunity.

    It comes amid “weird” data showing that case rates have been lower in unvaccinated individuals than the single, double, or even triple-jabbed since Omicron became the dominant variant in Scotland.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19843315.covid-scotland-case-rates-lowest-unvaccinated-double-jabbed-elderly-drive-rise-hospital-admissions/

    That’s ‘weird’ as in ‘not only predictable but indeed predicted by people who were slandered, censored and kicked off social and mainstream media despite having good to stellar track records in the relevant fields’.

    So it looks rather like the current situation may be about as good as it’s likely to get for multiply vaccinated people, and that it might well all be downhill from here (not least because it looks as though they are about to be denied – for their own good! – the highly questionable benefit of those multiple boosters. Damned if you do etc)

    Meanwhile in the High Court today, where are the vaccine rollout to children is being challenged, not that you would know it from the media coverage, the ONS has confirmed a rise in deaths among young males (15-19) from 257 over May-Dec 20 to 402 May-Dec 21, though is being uncharacteristically coy about the causes.

    I’m sure there are many potential causal factors, but one of them is certainly vaccination.

    Plus this. Sort of related? Not yet peer reviewed it’s true (I’m sure they’ll get a fair hearing when the time comes, IYKWIMAITYD):

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination

  39. Meanwhile from Down Under – Carlsberg don’t do silver linings, but maybe Fosters do?

    Why figure showing half of ICU patients are vaccinated proves jabs are working

    I mean ok they’re working a bit, though I don’t think people were informed that they could still end up in ICU when they gave their ‘consent’ (sorry, took the shots to avoid being made unemployed and homeless). But wait till that ADE comes a knocking.

    I can’t see the way out of this without a lot of deaths unfortunately. Where’s BIGgie? He knows stuff.

  40. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    Oncologists.

    One once said to me, while we were poring over quality of life data “I’m an oncologist, I don’t believe in quality of life. You know why coffins have nails in them? To keep oncologists out.

  41. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    Interested, 45 posts and my brain is fried after 12 hours poring over QoL data. What do you want me to look at? Tomorrow.

  42. @Bloke in der Vaterland

    I dunno – maybe the last few links. Just tell me this is not all crazy, the vaccines aren’t killing loads of people, it isn’t about to get a whole lot worse on that score, and it’s all basically explicable within a reasonable and understandable margin of error – and explick it if poss.

    I am a bear of little brain, more the brawn type, but to me it all looks very dodge.

  43. @Interested: I’ve been following Fenton and friends on yer internet. Underlying their analysis is the basic point that only a bloody fool takes observational data at face value. (As an aside: why haven’t there been any conclusive Randomised Controlled Trials on mink or what have you? Or do Pfizer do them and then refrain from reporting the results?) To continue: observational data tend to be laden with biases and confounders. So you need to do a bit of critical thinking about the data.

    Ask the ordinary blog commenter at, say, Marginal Revolution whether he agrees that correlation doesn’t imply causation and he agrees enthusiastically. Then plonk some observational data in front of him that has the appearance of agreeing with his prejudices and he accepts it immediately. Fenton and friends are simply exploring oddities in the data and offering simple hypotheses as to why they arise. If they are right two lessons emerge (at least from their earlier work; I’ve not read this one yet) to wit (a) people have their immune systems depressed for a couple of weeks after their jabs, making them unusually vulnerable to infection, and (b) the jabs seem pretty ineffective at preserving life.

    One thing I’ll look out for in this new paper is whether they see any sign that shortly after a jab people become unusually active spreaders of infection. In other words, should the jabs be marketed with the slogan “Take a jab and kill your neighbours”?

    Warning: I’m not a virologist nor an epidemiologist. Alas, in the Time of Covid that appears to be a qualification for doing better than the salesmen of The Narrative.

  44. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    I think there is substantial evidence that the mRNA and vector vaccines are substantially more dangerous than any other vaccine in widespread, routine use.

    That baseline is, however, a high bar since vaccines in general are considered extraordinarily safe drugs, so even “ten times” more dangerous, or, I think more likely, around a thousand times more dangerous, is still quite low. Low enough that it shouldn’t turn up as much or any signal in all-cause mortality.

    There are excess mortality signals in a number of places, typically about 20% excess mortality in younger age groups, and going on for enough months in a row to be something systematic rather than stochastic, in, Germany, Scotland, parts of the USA, that I have looked at. Again, as with the vaccines, young people don’t die very often so even a 20% increase, while being a reliable signal in terms of intensity (over a long enough period, which it is now), is not a lot of people. This makes it hard to determine what is causing it.

    We have three known “treatments” (experimentally speaking, not medically) – the virus, the vaccine, and the NPIs. To tease out the effect of vaccine and NPI, crudely, go compare Sweden and Florida. There is no point looking in any detail at cause of death, identifying and classifying causes of death was bad enough before covid happened, and has been systematically ruined since.

    I don’t think we will ever be able to tell what proportion of the death among younger people was due to vaccine and what due to NPI, my hunch is rather more due to the latter. The vaccines, well, they are bad enough that those of us on the front line of drug licensing will sagely nod our heads and stroke our chins at the obvious failing in perhaps as few as 5 years time, but the utter trashing of liberal western civilization, fundamental medical ethics, are bigger problems. And sadly, as is the fact that they will eventually bring into total disrepute something that could otherwise have become a very interesting new drug delivery technology with limited applications in patients with a rather higher risk tolerance than fit young men.

  45. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    By the way, I think the vaccines still are pretty good at stopping some vulnerable people dying of covid. The negative efficacy against infection is however abundantly clear, even with dearieme’s sensible cautions about observed data. These apply on steroids to infection statistics, because most of these are just raw counts of positive tests, no relation to the number of tests performed, and when we look at vaccinated vs. unvaccinated, no consideration of the fact that those groups test at different frequencies for different reasons, and those reasons and frequencies change over time.

    It too is happening in too many places, at around 4-6 months after last administration, in the UK you see it rolling down the age cohorts from one week to next, perfectly lined up with vaccine roll out. The result, despite the observational nature of the data, is an experimental scientist’s wet dream.

    The UK is a great place to look for data actually – it is as reliably collected as possible, aided by having a health system that can track almost every patient-HCP interaction in close to real-time. In the Reich, vaccination status is rarely collected with tests, which has fueled government fake news about the unwaxxed being 90% of infections. They just counted the 70% “unknown” as unwaxxed.

  46. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    By the way, Sweden and Florida because they have high vaccine uptake and low NPI, so are good comparisons to fascist autocracies/Chinese puppet states like the UK, the Reich, blue-state USA, New Zealand, etc.

  47. From p25, the conclusions of the paper by Neil, Fenton et al: “we applied adjustments to the ONS data and showed that they lead to the conclusion that the vaccines do not reduce all-cause mortality, but rather produce genuine spikes in all-cause mortality shortly after vaccination”. Cheery buggers, eh?

  48. Sorry to bang on, but if the vaccines produce “genuine spikes in all-cause mortality” then that would contribute to there being proportionately more unvaccinated people in the ICUs. If the authors’ are correct in hypothesising the undercounting of vaccinated people in the population then that would contribute to the appearance of there being proportionately more unvaccinated people in the ICUs.

    I think the lesson is that first-glance interpretation of the figures is unwise. It’s a separate point to wonder whether the figures are dishonestly or incompetently gathered. One or both of those are probably necessary to explain one type of simple error that they have confirmed, having had their attention drawn to it by another chap, Dr. Hans-Joachim Kremer. Dr Kremer had spotted a phenomenon that in the physical sciences might be called the violation of a conservation principle. Do look at section 8 on p 21.

  49. Interested:

    Perhaps of further interest

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/covid-infections-and-deaths-soar?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1MzUxNDk4LCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0NzA3MDY0NiwiXyI6InZuZFQzIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQyMTAxMzYyLCJleHAiOjE2NDIxMDQ5NjIsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zNjMwODAiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.e9jdGzi37daK_LfbjpkDswpX9dhg_iFXf0HNoXLhytc

    Let me be cruel… This is why you don’t let people with an Agenda and a Narrative mess with statistics. Because they will delude themselves or lie outright.

    The first two spikey graphs, presented out of context (and without legenda…) do indeed show a nice spike.
    Alarming, until you realise, even without going to the original site and checking up what it’s actually supposed to be, that those graps represent absolute numbers.. very low absolute numbers in context of something like the 1000’s of “subjects” a day in a vaccination campaign.
    This is always a Big Red Flag when it comes to statistics, especially when the context as it was presented in is conveniently lacking.

    So you head to the quoted site to see what’s really up, and do some digging, and hey… find the nice graphs in context…

    And funny that.. the presented graphs are about the incidence after the first shot of a double-shot vaccination strategy. As in partially protected. As in not immune for any given value of “immunity”.
    And in context you can see what is actually happening here. And it’s something anyone with half a brain has been able to observe all around:

    The cause is not the vaccine, or “reduced immunity”. It’s bloody human stupidity.
    It’s the hordes of people who have had their first shot and consider themselves “safe” because they “had the shot”, and proceed to go on holiday/to the pub/drop the Mask without even waiting the 14 days smack in the middle of an ongoing pandemic.
    And without waiting for that second shot that’s needed for “full protection”.
    Guess what happens… Just guess.. It isn’t exactly rocket science.. Go on…

    The rest of the boring numbers on that Alberta site actually prove the vaccines work, and work well. It also shows how much more contagious Omicron is, and how much more it is developing into nothing other than a Nasty Cold. And other stuff that is exactly as expected if you wash off the Paranoïa and tinfoil residue.

    What it doesn’t do is support in any way the exhortations of the author of the article Interested linked. At all.

    And when it comes to the third graph in mr. Berenson’s blogging extraordinaire.. I’ve no clue what he intends to prove with that one..
    That one is nothing but “2 years of CoVid”.
    Initial Alpha/Beta spike. Check.
    Second Alpha/Beta spike in season. Check.
    Rise of Delta pushing that second spike way up. Check.
    *marks start of vacination campaign roughly around that Jan29 mark….*
    Hey…. Where’s that third spike? Oh goshgolly… It. Is. Not. There.

    People without tinfoil headware tend to see that as : Seems Stuff Works As Intended.
    May not be perfect. May have unintended side-effects we’ll find out later.
    But the primary function of the vaccines: Suppressing the impact of a novel virus on the population. Yeah.. That works just fine.

    Oh… And it’s Alex Berenson… One of the reminders that the Elyan Sage is, by far, not the only one of its ilk…
    When it comes to writing Narrative towards a foregone conclusion mr. Berenson had better stick to his spy novels.

  50. I think there is substantial evidence that the mRNA and vector vaccines are substantially more dangerous than any other vaccine in widespread, routine use.

    The question becomes, why then are we using this new mRNA technique? Why not use the older techniques that are safer?
    Is it because the vaccines could be developed in an afternoon? How long would a traditional style vaccine take to develop if we allowed the same testing bypasses? What would the cost profile be? Is it just that the traditional style is less profitable? Why, since they are more dangerous, haven’t they been pulled – especially since the Covid is now definitely attenuated?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-designed-coronavirus-vaccine-in-2-days-2020-11?r=US&IR=T

    Something stinks about this whole thing.

  51. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    “It’s the hordes of people who have had their first shot and consider themselves “safe” because they “had the shot”, and proceed to go on holiday/to the pub/drop the Mask without even waiting the 14 days smack in the middle of an ongoing pandemic.”

    I’ll take issue with the above as an assumption without data. If Alberta is anything like the Reich, there was no such mask dropping, pub going, etc. Also you cannot and should not separate the behavioural and social impacts of an intervention from the ideal, sanitized view of its intended physiological impact. That has been a repeated feature, possibly will in future be seen as the defining feature, of this entire mess. The “Intent to treat” concept is used for very good reasons, and is going out of fashion across indications for bad reasons related to why we use intent to treat. Once it is safe to talk about in public I will be using information like this on covid to train people as to why we use it.

    I agree the absolute numbers are low and the conclusion very tentative. I suspect the duration of observation is messing with the later numbers, making the early period look worse than it is, relatively*. I am not sure what to make of this, except that absolutely no one should be dying of covid within 10 days of vaccination against it! Those are people who had active infections at the time of vaccination. Intent to treat, again. That number should be zero.

    “Rise of Delta pushing that second spike way up. Check”

    Delta only became a VOC in the UK in May 2021, didn’t it? So it seems even Delta was not the bringer of mass death, let alone Omicron!

    *: With the caveat that we should be seeing almot nothing, if the vaccine is effective as we used to understand vaccine efficacy. Which it is not.

  52. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    Also, back to basics, if the cause is behavioural re masks and pubs you are claiming that masks and lockdowns work. And they don’t work to any meaningful degree.

    The situation in the Reich at present is that the unwaxed are banned from restaurants, shops, buses, etc. But the infection numbers are such that the twitter wags are goading the government to invert the rule and allow only those with proof that they are unwaxed to go to pubs, restaurants, and take their masks off. With the waxed currently infected at about double the rate of the unwaxed (maybe that’s just infection deferred by limited duration of efficacy), It would, after all, be “following the science”!

  53. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    “Oh… And it’s Alex Berenson… One of the reminders that the Elyan Sage is, by far, not the only one of its ilk…”

    I think this is a little unfair in that Berenson is at least making an honest attempt to put the other “side” of the story. Of course it is a problem that this is an issue that even has “sides”, largely because what should have been scientific, medical, and ethical questions got heavily politicised and moralised. But we know who is responsible for doing that, and they will very soon find themselves on the wrong “side”.

    Berenson of course gets things wrong, he is not a scientist (not that that status makes you immune to error), and people on both “sides” are constantly nebulizing and gaslighting, and deploying the full range of crude denominator tricks, relative comparisons and endpoint fallacies to intentionally bamboozle. So, of course he’s going to get the wrong end of the stick sometimes. Incidentally, a takedown of one of his misunderstandings on his substack, by a commentator called Viv (you can draw your own conclusions as to whether that is an alter ego) briefly went viral. So, I don’t take sides with or against Berenson, merely observe that he is one of the few brave enough to stick their heads above the parapet and attach their name, and someone has got to do it. They don’t have to be right all the time, just enough of the time to be credible.

    Looking at data should be, basically, just arithmetic, but the devil is in the footnotes.

  54. “The cause is not the vaccine, or “reduced immunity”. It’s bloody human stupidity.
    It’s the hordes of people who have had their first shot and consider themselves “safe” because they “had the shot”, and proceed to go on holiday/to the pub/drop the Mask without even waiting the 14 days smack in the middle of an ongoing pandemic.”

    What’s your evidence for that?

    Frexample: I suggest the cause was bringing lots of ancients out of their nice safe houses, assembling them in huge crowds in public halls, exposing them to infection-spreading medical staff to vaccinate them. What’s my evidence? None at all, of course. Anyone can speculate. The beauty of the work of Neil, Fenton et al is that they make their hypotheses perfectly explicit, show numerically/graphically what the consequences would be, do some arithmetic that lets them reject alternative explanations, and – I suggest – leave the field free for other people to try alternative hypotheses to see whether they too can sort out the anomalies in the data.

    Until then I will entertain their conclusion that “the vaccines do not reduce all-cause mortality, but rather produce genuine spikes in all-cause mortality shortly after vaccination”.

  55. Chernyy Drakon: “Is it because the vaccines could be developed in an afternoon?”

    Can we get rid of this insane myth, please?
    The development of the mRNA vaccines has been going on for at least 25 years.
    They are a specific application of techniques to create research-specific antibodies in an attempt to have them not cost you an arm and a leg to obtain.
    Techniques that have themselves been researched since the mid-80’s or so, and I most certainly have created some FrankenRats ( and mice, and toads, and zebrafish, and of all things, trout **) that way as a grad student in proof-of-concept research for my “academic superiors” in the early ’90’s.

    Expression of introduced foreign D/RNA in (fully differentiated) muscle cells is not something Mystical, and in many ways an extremely powerful research tool used in quite a few fields.
    The mRNA vaccines are simply a practical application in humans, instead of goat, rabbit, rat, or an anonymous cell culture.

    The Janssen approach is different, as it uses a Rhinovirus as a carrier, and doesn’t actually need intramuscular injection to introduce the mRNA into cells. It uses the virus for that.
    That one is actually designed to be sprayed up the nostril for deployment in Africa in an attempt to get a grip on something as cute as Ebola.

    Both techniques can indeed be adapted “in an afternoon”. Actually at the speed of a keyboard if you’re really good at typing just 4 letters flawlessly.
    All you need to is put something in the [insert code here] slot, after all. And then let the synthesiser do the work for your first lab batch. And of course some hapless rats to test whether the [insert code here] actually expresses as expected.

    Then there’s all the pitfalls of scaling up from lab level to bulk production, but hey.. That’s details, right?

    But yeah.. Any of those vaccines can be “created” in about two days.
    Because there just may be some decades of research behind them, and some impressive advances in technology to make this possible.

    ** The control/clean tanks were strictly monitored, and it was next to impossible to sneak out the occasional dinner. Bastards!!

  56. *: With the caveat that we should be seeing almost nothing, if the vaccine is effective as we used to understand vaccine efficacy. Which it is not.

    What is missing in this whole argument is understanding of the concept that vaccines IMMUNISE. In other words they establish immunity from infection. What is blindingly obvious (at least to me)is that none of the varieties of covid vaccine achieve that basic requirement. And that is not taking into account the potential problems (that are starting to appear already) with inadequately-tested vaccines.

    At the end of WW2, the Allies tried and executed German bureaucrats and doctors who who were responsible for carrying out mass medical experiments on people. Sadly, these days the guilty are the winning side and there is little, if any, chance of them being brought to justice.

  57. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    Grikath, I think the manufacturer claims that the mRNA vaccines are expressed in dendritic cells! I beg to … since anything given IM gets around the entire circulation pretty quickly it’s very unsurprising to see a lot of hemostatic and cardiovascular AEs. Expressing foreign antigen on your endothelium, whether the encoded spike has transmembrane domain (I can’t be bothered to look up, and it’s more your beat) or via MHC. It just seems like a bad idea.

    This is going to be an issue whatever antigen you use. And sure there has been a lot of development in the lab, but until 2020 nothing clinical. At all, that I am aware of. Giving this to billions of people over a short period of time was a bad idea.

  58. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    And how do you control dosing of this stuff? Cool, you have nice consistent doses of the mRNA, but when you are using the human body as your brewing vat, how do you dose the antigen? I bet you there is a thousand times difference between the highest and lowest expressor and a bajillion unknowable factors influencing it.

  59. Chernyy Drakon: “Is it because the vaccines could be developed in an afternoon?”

    Can we get rid of this insane myth, please?
    The development of the mRNA vaccines has been going on for at least 25 years.
    They are a specific application of techniques to create research-specific antibodies in an attempt to have them not cost you an arm and a leg to obtain.
    Techniques that have themselves been researched since the mid-80’s or so, and I most certainly have created some FrankenRats ( and mice, and toads, and zebrafish, and of all things, trout **) that way as a grad student in proof-of-concept research for my “academic superiors” in the early ’90’s.

    Both techniques can indeed be adapted “in an afternoon”. Actually at the speed of a keyboard if you’re really good at typing just 4 letters flawlessly.
    All you need to is put something in the [insert code here] slot, after all. And then let the synthesiser do the work for your first lab batch. And of course some hapless rats to test whether the [insert code here] actually expresses as expected.

    Then there’s all the pitfalls of scaling up from lab level to bulk production, but hey.. That’s details, right?

    The principles of flight have been well understood for a hundred years.

    You can adapt the techniques in an afternoon* or weekend like Moderna said they did with the mRNA vaccines. Simply take an existing design, like a 737 and slap a couple of bigger, shinier, more powerful engines on it. Design a couple of mounting point adapters. Jobs a good un.

    Indeed, it will probably fly ok for a while… until it plows into the ground and kills hundreds of people. Twice.
    Same with the vaccine. It’ll probably work ok in most people, until it doesn’t – and with the eagerness with which people have been lining up to get injected in large numbers, even a small error will result in a significant number of deaths or life changing side effects.

    The idea that just because we think we understand something well means we don’t need to test it extensively is just arrogance. Systems are complicated and a lot of them are complex. And the human body is incredibly complicated.

    The designers of the mRNA vaccines said they designed it in a weekend. That doesn’t inspire confidence…

    *Yes, I’m aware that the two aren’t exactly the same, its an analogy. The principles of flight, fluid mechanics and mechanical engineering are very well understood, easily modellable (is that a word?) and consistent. And yet we still mandate lots of computer modelling – the reliable kind, with FEA and fluid dynamics, not the Professor-Fergusson-lets-pull-a-number-out-my-arse-and-try-to-scare-everyone modelling technique – before we have significant amounts of flights with sensors everywhere to confirm model reliability, static and dynamic destruction tests and more test flights, before we let someone sell a commercial jet. And still they can just plow into the ground.

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