Here’s an epidemiological clue

As Israel is finding, fourth doses of vaccines are not working.

Only elimination will work.

So why aren’t we working for elimination is my question?

He’s got his own evidence:

Latest reports suggest that this version of Omicron is about as contagious as measles, with an R of something like 12.

But he can’t understand his own evidence. Short of each man actually being on his own island you cannot in fact eliminate something as infectious as measles without vaccination working. After all, we never did with measles, did we?

32 thoughts on “Here’s an epidemiological clue”

  1. Israel covid-19 death rate 944 per million, Jordan 1,275 per million, Lebanon 1,417 per million. [Or if you want to compare it with the places with largest Jewish populations: New York 3,355 per million, Russia 2,274 per million.]
    Murphy’s definition of “not working” is not to be found in any respectable dictionary

  2. Omicron is a coronavirus with very similar structure and effects to the common cold.
    Anyone who finds a cure for the common cold will make a fortune.
    My guess is that there are dozens or hundreds of labs around the world doing RNA experiments on the common cold. And Omicron escaped from one of them.
    If ivermectin works on omicron will it work on the even-commoner-cold? If so, that work on a cure for colds is wasted.

  3. its interesting that even the legendary John “S” Warren, has taken him to task..when one of his main sycophants is dissing him then we know he is really talking horse shit

  4. ‘Only elimination will work.
    So why aren’t we working for elimination is my question?’

    Wasn’t that the question being addressed at the Wannsee Conference to formulate the Final Solution?

  5. We aren’t working for elimination because there’s virtually no additional benefit to be had from elimination if vaccines reduce severity considerably and Omicron is much less virulent than its predecessors. At this point infections are just “shrug”. We have better things to do.

  6. And, in general, the only way a virus changes to become more virulent is by becomes LESS deadly. The only way it can spead faster is by keeping its hosts alive, if it kills its hosts, by definition, it won’t spread. A more infectious Corona is to be cheeared to the rafters because by definition it is changing to a generic harmless background sniffle.

  7. John B

    That did make me chuckle (probably inappropriately given the subject matter!!)

    What cracks me up slightly is he can’t seriously be looking around the globe and thinking that elimination is a practical prospect. Even Scandinavia, usually held up as a beacon of ‘progressiveness’ has switched to learning to live with the virus. New Zealand, as well as North Korea, China and Turkmenistan are still trying for ‘Zero COVID’ but that’s four countries out of over 200. Additionally some smaller Island nations might have ‘eliminated’ it to a degree but in a country as dependent as we are on imports and exports his suggestions might very well be ‘peak idiocy’, which when you consider he is the most idiotic commentator extant in cyberspace is saying an awful lot…

  8. ‘ John77
    February 1, 2022 at 11:44 am
    Israel covid-19 death rate 944 per million….

    …. Murphy’s definition of “not working” is not to be found in any respectable dictionary.’

    Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.

    If vaccination explains Israel’s low death rate what explains India – 354 pm; Indonesia – 519 pm; Niger – 12 pm; Japan – 149? Do you suppose there might be factors other than vaccination?

  9. ‘Murphy’s definition of “not working” is not to be found in any respectable dictionary’: it is, however, inferable from the pronouncements of the Powers That Be, over and over again. The old loonie is right just this once.

    “if vaccines reduce severity considerably …”: aye, “if”. Those who look at observational data with a sceptical eye seem not to be convinced.

  10. John B

    If vaccination explains Israel’s low death rate what explains India – 354 pm; Indonesia – 519 pm; Niger – 12 pm; Japan – 149? Do you suppose there might be factors other than vaccination?

    Possibly some reported numbers may be more accurate than others? For example, I don’t believe the UK’s reported numbers.

  11. @ John B and decnine
    Temperature. Have you noticed that infection and death rates are higher in winter months? Another reason why I chose countries neighbouring Israel as comparators. Reports (unchallenged by sceptics) that infection rates are higher in cold work environments like meat processing
    Yes Japan is largely due to their politeness and there appear to be genetic (I’m not allowed to say “racial”) variations, but the contrast between Bangladeshi mortality in England and Bangladesh (a factor of c.20x) is beyond the bounds of government deception by misreporting.

  12. …also infection rates are inexplicably low in countries where Ivermectin is widely taken as protection against malaria. Doctors baffled.

  13. “If you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don’t understand quantum mechanics.”

    I think this is an appropriate quotation for talking about the ways and ills of the human race.

  14. I suggested to spud that with the death of that bloke who used to walk up and down Oxford Street with a sandwich board warning of the dangers of too much protein, that there was a place for him if only he could knock up a ‘Covid warning’ sandwich board.

    Sadly he didn’t publish my suggestion.

    Mind you, I also pointed out that for the same week he’s referring to as ‘proof’ that Omicron is just seconds away from going apocalyptic (w/e 21-1) ONS figures show that total deaths from all causes are 8.6% down on the 5 year average. Despite the best efforts of Omicron, there are no excess deaths.

    Maybe it was that he didn’t like?

  15. Bloke in North Dorset

    Andrew C,

    Wasn’t w/e 21/1 the same week where Covid deaths were roughly the same as those attributed to flu in the same week in 2019?

    It still seems to be beyond the wit of the MSM to realise that flu cases are running at around 97% of what they were in 2019-2020.

    The IFR for Covid is now lower than seasonal flu for the under 50s:

  16. One small pacific island closed the borders and had no Covid, in January they allowed a flight in with 54 passengers. All passengers were vaccinated and tested 3 times before leaving Fiji where they had been required to isolate for 2 weeks before the flight, obviously all mask rules etc followed for flight and so on
    They were isolated on arrival and then tested and 36 tested positive, 3 staff at the quarantine hotel also tested positive but not before they had infected people in the community
    Exactly how does he think it can be eliminated, there was even an outbreak at an Antarctic research station

  17. BniC

    I think his vision is that borders be closed forever (a la New Zealand) and we go back into full lockdown as per March 2020. At least that’s my take on what passes for his ‘thought’

  18. VP

    And everything will be fine because the public sector working from home will provide all the essential services on which we depend. And the private sector, who may be confined at home not working only provide mere fripperies.


  19. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    John77 is an idiot.

    Seeing as he thinks Jordan and Lebanon (LOL) are in a position to find as many PCR positives within 28 days prior to death as Israel.

    There are two useful numbers to watch in a pandemic. Infections based on representative survey, which nowhere has done properly (or has not published) and all-cause mortality. Not mortality assigned to cause by the fakest definition ever used. That all-cause mortality has had, in most places, a couple of wimpyish seasonal peaks that would not be noticeably out of place in a 10 year return period above average flu season.

    The fact that “vaccination” is worthless at preventing infection is obvious even from the flawed data everywhere is putting out. That it is somewhat effective against death also seems likely. But it ain’t no vaccination by any pre-2019 definition.

  20. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    We are working for elimination! We have spent 2 years proving beyond any doubt that elimination is impossible without the wholesale destruction of civilisation. In fact, proving that you can destroy civilisation in the attempt at elimination and still fail. Because it’s not possible under any circumstances.

    You could have nuclear world war 3 tomorrow and some passing alien will still catch fucking coronavirus when visiting the incinerated remains of the planet in the year 9595.

  21. From

    There is evidence that the following species can catch the virus that causes COVID-19:
    big cats in captivity
    domestic cats
    fruit bats
    non-human primates
    pigs (these are less prone to catching COVID-19)
    raccoon dogs
    white-tailed deer
    Mink and other mammals in the mustelinae family, such as ferrets

    Thats a lot of species that will need to be driven to extinction in order to eliminate covid.

    Is the Spud insane?

  22. . . . some passing alien will still catch fucking coronavirus when visiting the incinerated remains of the planet in the year 9595.

    If corona was made in a lab then we will have put something back.

  23. NZ gave up zero Covid months ago.

    Only the lunatic fringe here think it possible. And we’re an island nation.

  24. You don’t need a vaccine to wipe out a disease.

    The one essential requirement is that it not be shared with a wild animal vector. Since almost all diseases have that, they cannot be prevented.

    We would have got rid of the Plague a long time ago, but for marmots. Lacking a vaccine doesn’t matter. Likewise Ebola is often eradicated in humans, only to reappear from the wild.

    We cannot get rid of the Wuhan Bat Flu, because lots of animals can get it.

    It’s also very much easier to prevent a stable disease that doesn’t mutate quickly. So a double no to CV19 then.

  25. BniC, all that work at testing and vaccinating the people before they left Fiji for nought because the people with brains didn’t think about all the external factors. Such as who is handling the tickets as they board the plane. Were the airline staff similarly tested and vaxed. What about the baggage handlers. Was the plane itself defumigated and sterilised. So many factors.

  26. @ BiFR
    *You* are an idiot – try reading what you have written. If Jordan/Lebanon is less able to find PCR positives than Israel then their reported figures for covid-19 deaths will be *lower* than those for Israel for a given *real* mortality rate. So Israel’s mortality is better by *more* than the reported difference.
    Have you been taking lessons from “Salon” or Murphy?

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