So, over the next month or so it’s possible that there will be the two dividends paid (together, at a guess, perhaps $1 on this £2 share price, which is obviously substantial) or perhaps no divvie at all. Which is considerable uncertainty. Either decision seems likely to move that price though.
Consideration of what the Polymetal share price should be therefore depends upon views of that dividend. The general impression I get – and to emphasise, this is an impression, not a fact – is that Polymetal would like to bring the dividends up to date. I’d also expect that to lead to a considerable revaluation upwards of that share price, if they do. But that idea keeps running into that one little effect of sanctions – not being able to reach that 20% of the shareholder base which is in Russia, through NSD. And how can you pay a dividend if you can’t communicate with shareholders?