The UK is likely to enter a deeper recession than previously expected next year, while interest rates and inflation will be lower than forecast, according to revised analysis from Goldman Sachs.
The US investment bank downgraded its outlook for Britain, in analysis released on Sunday, forecasting the UK economy would shrink by 1% next year, down from its previous estimate for a 0.4% contraction.
Goldman Sachs said that the increase in corporation tax to 25% in April – after Truss U-turned on one of her key Conservative leadership campaign commitments – was one factor.
Its report said: “Folding in weaker growth momentum, significantly tighter financial conditions, and the higher corporation tax from next April, we downgrade our UK growth outlook further and now expect a more significant recession.”
A prediction. Those who insist that government can just print whatever cash is needed – and therefore taxes don’t need to rise – will not say that corporation tax should not rise. Because some of them won’t have the courage to say so, the others because they’re halfwits.
I would have thought that someone, somewhere, with far more knowledge in this area than me, would have pointed out the reality of tax increases, as demonstrated when President Hollande increased VAT, Income Tax and Corporation Tax:
“Compared to initial estimates from the French government using models which ignore the Laffer Curve’s “slippery slope,” tax revenues from corporate taxes, individual income tax, and value-added tax (VAT) were down by 6.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 5 billion euros respectively.”
You may recognise this Tim, it’s from a former employer…..