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Most recessions are solidly grounded in the prior excesses of the household and corporate sectors. That’s not the case this time around. What with the pandemic and now the energy crisis, no-one could characterise the past three years as ones of excess.

Printing gazillions to pay everyone while there’s no production as all cower in their living rooms could be described as “excess” actually.

17 thoughts on “Err?”

  1. Is this old troll worth about -1 out of ten?

    If there was no production why are oil tankers queueing up in European waters?

    《The ships full of gas waiting off Europe’s coast
    By Chris Baraniuk
    Technology of Business reporter
    25 October 2022》

  2. Not household or corporate excesses this time – though they both share the blame and deserve every ounce of misery they have coming.

  3. “Printing gazillions to pay everyone while there’s no production as all cower in their living rooms could be described as “excess” actually.”

    I’m still waiting for the explanation as to how exactly the round of QE that was done to pay for covid differs from all the other episodes of it……… know, what different process the BoE took to inject the 2020 printed money into the economy vs what it did in 2009/2012/2016?

  4. Rising unemployment? Little sign of it so far.

    Eh, probably not a good idea to boast about the low casualty count so far in the Phony War.

    The job losses are in the post. If you think bakeries, factories and even charity shops are going to survive for very long with so many leccy bills arriving like letters to Santa in Miracle on 34th Street, wait a few weeks.

    Lockdowns wouldn’t have been anywhere near as damaging if not for Net Zero and Ukraine, but here we are. We already know what expensive energy means, and we’re doing it anyway. The Chinese and Americans can’t believe their luck.

  5. In fairness to Mr Warner, he also writes:

    “Rather, the ruinous build up of debt has all been in the public sector,”

  6. The lady in my shop has already said to me that she’s looked ahead and decided the finances don’t work and to shut down. I’ve given her a couple of extra weeks free to get her past Chrsitmas and into the New Year to help her have a closing down sale, but then she’ll be joining the queueue of unemployed.

  7. As John Davis points out above, he does actually go on to state that the excess has been built up in the public sector. So I’m not sure your point stands.

  8. “I wonder why there’s 1.2m vacancies..”

    Because those vacancies require “Certificates and Qualifications” mandated by the Gods(f/m/x) of HRM, and deemed to be Absolutely Essential, which require several years of (self-financed..) study at institutions ruled by the Friends of HRM and which get ….Adjusted to Modern Requirements.. every other year.

    And that’s before “Diversity Targets” and “Compatibility with Company Philosophy”, and “Age”..

  9. Interestingly, Warner seems to agree with Joe Stiglitz. In a recent article which became an absurd, even hysterical panegyric of Joe Biden, he states that there has been no sign of excessive aggregate demand. But he doesn’t say what figures he is looking at. I’ll see if I can find a link

  10. Bloke in North Dorset

    Well according the the Governments own stats there are 5.2m people on out of work benefits right now.

    And how many of those are unable to work because they’re waiting in endless queues because the NHS is unfit for purpose?

    I heard some serious suggestions that perhaps those people should be prioritised, but imaging the screaming if that happened?

  11. Great article. I only got a few paragraphs in before I needed to find something better to do. It wasn’t hard to.

    “ Large numbers of Americans voted for extremists [who believe in having children in wedlock, that having a penis makes you a man not a woman, that rewards should be earned by hard work, that allowing millions of undocumented migrants may not be a completely good thing], and some of those candidates did win. This should give us pause [to consider whether our outlandish views are even remotely acceptable if we wish to maintain a modern liberal society].”

  12. “And how many of those are unable to work because they’re waiting in endless queues because the NHS is unfit for purpose?”

    Well according to the link about 3.5 million of them are on pure out of work benefits – JSA or Universal Credit (mostly the latter). The remainder are on Incapacity Benefits, so presumably that some of those will be people who are waiting for the tender care of the Envy of the World™ to heal them.

    So even if you ignore all the incapacity lot as unable to work at all (which they can’t all be) there’s 3.5m unemployed in the country (more than in the 80s), at the same time employers can’t fill basic jobs that require no qualifications, that pay £9.50/hr (which will be £10.40 by next April). All the while importing hundreds of thousands of immigrants. Talk about f*cked up…….

  13. Is it possible to take the person who wrote this seriously?

    “But Biden got done what he could. Moreover, his accomplishments have not been limited to legislation. He appointed the first black woman to the US Supreme Court, and he issued executive orders to alleviate student-loan debt, improve antitrust enforcement, and update financial regulations for the era of climate change. He brought America back into the Paris climate agreement and made notable gains in restoring American leadership on the world stage. Though he has gotten very little credit for it, history will likely show that his management of the Russia-Ukraine war has been masterful.”

    Did anyone notice any of these massive achievements?

  14. ” he issued executive orders to alleviate student-loan debt”

    The courts noticed, haven’t they ruled its unconstitutional?

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