Mark says:
November 16 2022 at 11:52 am
Richard,Whilst I agree that fuel and especially gas prices have played an important part in the current global inflation situation, I think you cannot simply blame the Ukraine war for it in isolation.
Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of Feb 2022. However UK CPI was already 5.5% by this point, pre-war, having risen from sub 2%.
This means that the war simply cannot be the cause of all the current inflation problem.
Moreover, to highlight the point, gas and oil prices have fallen significantly since their mid summer highs so if it was only energy prices then we would see inflation falling at least on a month on month basis, where in reality the opposite is true
Likewise, core inflation excluding food and energy is currently 6.5% in the UK, again pointing to the fact that inflation more broad based and is not solely caused by the effect of the Ukraine war.
So my point is, if inflation is solely because of the war, why where we already seeing high and rapidly rising inflation well before the war?
Reply
Richard Murphy says:
November 16 2022 at 1:36 pm
No one disputes that Covid played a role by a) allowing an artificial savings accumulation by some and b) because of a chaotic and too quick reopening. But that impact has now worked throughAnd you ignore that energy impacts on all prices
Your claim does not stack
Reply
Mark says:
November 16 2022 at 3:12 pm
Again I don’t disagree that lockdown and it’s end had an effect.That said, I don’t know why you are calling the savings accumulation artificial. It is perfectly normal given people were limited in what they could do. Are you suggesting those extra savings should have been taken away from people by some manner?
But if savings accumulation was too great (and unleashed an inflationary wave as people were able to spend again) then essentially you are arguing that the money supply and velocity of money drive inflation. At which point you could also argue that huge government spending was also a massive driver of inflation by the same method.
I also don’t think lockdown reopening was chaotic, given it was phased over months and in four stages. Or are you suggesting that lockdown should not have ended, much as in China?
Either way you cannot simply blame inflation on the war when there was already high and rising inflation well before the war, which seems to have been driven by increased demand and increased money supply.
Richard Murphy says:
November 16 2022 at 3:54 pm
You think Covid was not artificial?You think the rush to reopen was planned?
You think disruption to normal savings patterns might not be capable of having an inflationary impact without the reasons you ascribe?
And you think I should take you seriously? Sorry – bit I smell trolling 0- because these comments – like should we have been like China? – are obviously a wind up
You are now banned
Of course, disagreement is welcomed because that’s how people learn, mistakes are pointed out……
Hold on, is he arguing that Covid was artificial?
Roast Potato.
Toys on the floor. Baby in his pram blubbing.
One of the best interactions ever – and well worth memorializing here. What a pathetic piece of flotsam he is
Did I read that right? He’s now a Covid denier?
As I recall, during the pandemic he was screaming from the rooftops about the dangers.
I don’t think he’s a denier. More like an expert. Hasn’t he had it about 6 times already?
It’s odd that people want to attribute everything to the war in Ukraine. Especially so as energy prices were rising and energy suppliers were failing a year before.
ANNRQ – Roasted and (s)mashed!
He writes like a contrary teenager, exposing his ignorance, arrogance and stupidity with every nonsensical claim. And yet, people (allegedly) follow his rubbish.
Jgh/adrian
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt in that I think he’s saying the boost to savings caused by the COVID response was ‘artificial’ so I don’t think he’s saying it was an artificial panic or going down that rabbit hole. Bear in mind he has a dim view of savings in general. Once money has been secure to provide him with a comfortable living the rest should ideally belong to the state so it can provide the services ‘society’ demands.
He must have been a laugh riot in a pub.
Dennis
Which is why the hostelries in Downham Market barred him en masse
That’s why I used past tense.
He really does mellow with age doesn’t he?
I’d rather engage with a leper’s scrotum sac.
It’s odd that people want to attribute everything to the war in Ukraine.
It has been partly usurped by the “horrors” of the two month Truss government, during which hardly any policies were actually enacted.
But they might have been PJF. That’s what was so horrible.
@Bravefart there’s some research that leprosy cells may have some link to organ regeneration, so scrotum sac has some potential value
Dennis
No flies on you as ever
Tim
You might be interested to see his budget response. Apparently in addition to having had COVID five times he now has Long COVID. Poor guy.
《But if savings accumulation was too great (and unleashed an inflationary wave as people were able to spend again) then essentially you are arguing that the money supply and velocity of money drive inflation. At which point you could also argue that huge government spending was also a massive driver of inflation by the same method.》
What if prices are noise, and inflation just psychological?
Funny how the budget promised spending cuts morphed into spending curbs, but the tax rises were kept
AndyF
‘It’s odd that people want to attribute everything to the war in Ukraine. Especially so as energy prices were rising and energy suppliers were failing a year before.’
If they don’t they’d have to attribute it to Net Zero.
V-P, one might conclude that the long term effects of having Covid five times results in chronic hypochondria.