Again, there is no surprise here: anyone with the bank of an envelope could work this out for themselves. However, the reason is not falling energy prices: stable energy prices would be enough to deliver this phenomenon. Falling prices might well lead to deflation in 2024.
But what the report does not address is why, as a result, interest rates are still expected to go up.
Because we generally think that positive real interest rates are a good thing to have in an economy?
An accountant, let alone a Professor of practice in Political Economy, ought to know that disinflation is NOT the same as deflation. One is a shrinking of prices, the other is shrinking of production etc (“real value” of the economy).
What is a bank of an envelope?
Emil, it’s where Professor Kartoffel keeps his cash.