Ukraine desperately needs to keep its own Army equipped, to keep the country alive, and to pay for the vast amount of reconstruction that will be needed. The IMF estimated in December that the country needs $5bn (£4.2bn) a month just to keep going. At the same time, there needs to be some form of punishment beyond condemnation, and potentially consumer boycotts, for the companies that remain.
The solution? Sanction and seize. If the G20 economies can come up with a global minimum tax, and most major economies can impose windfall taxes, it is hardly impossible to come up with a levy on Russian profits. Estimate the amount that each multinational is making in Russia, double it, and then impose a one-off charge on each one, and donate the proceeds to the government in Kiev.
The likes of Philip Morris and Accor can huff and puff if they want to. They can complain that it is too hard to sell local assets, that there is not enough time, or that they can’t get the right price. They can drag their heels, and come up with spurious reasons for remaining.
But here’s a prediction. If all the money they were making was confiscated, they would start to get a move on – and the scandal of major Western companies remaining in Russia would soon be over.
We’re not even at war. They are, true, but we’re not. And theft might not be the appropriate peacetime answer to anything.
For note what the actual suggestion is. The property – indirectly but still so – of some pensioner in Basingstoke should be stolen from them by fiat. Because.
Or let us try a constructed but close to real example. A buddy invested, 30 years back, in a dental clinic in Almaty. Shipped over all the nice modern equipment, chairs, drills etc (much Soviet dentistry back then was steel teeth along with pedal power drills). Been paying him a dividend ever since.
OK. Almaty isn’t in Russia but just move that clinic into Novosoibirsk or something instead to construct our example.
So, that private property should be confiscated from him because Putin decided to invade Ukraine? Even though we (or the US, he is a US citizen) are not at war with Russia? Really?
That’s what the suggestion is? The private property of a citizen should be confiscated on the grounds of geopolitics?
Quite apart from anything else that might run into the occasional Fifth Amendment difficulty. As well as being theft.
Fourth Amendment (search and seizures), not Fifth (self-incrimination).
Fifth:
The problem is everyone has drunk the Kool Aid on this – you have to credit the CIA/ MI6 in many ways. Legions of trolls on every blog/ website calling for immediate escalation and asset seizure among calls to denude Europe of its armament in a proxy war.
Even Samizdata seems unable to accept any comment deemed to be ‘pro Kremlin’ – all the meanwhile our economy collapses and the likes of Murphy and other Guardian types look to introduce a woke tyranny which, for White heterosexual men especially will be far worse than anything in Russia. Loss of job, seizure of house and pension, loss of children to re-education camps. Nothing seems too outlandish a possibility.
A ceasefire needs to happen this week and then we can begin tackling the enemy within through liberal use of a multi person gallows on most of academia and the public sector- and that’s your starter for ten. Following that begin asset seizures and hypothecated taxes for all manner of left wing beliefs. Knock yourself out but be under no illusion Russia is very much a ‘side issue’
VP – The problem is everyone has drunk the Kool Aid on this – you have to credit the CIA/ MI6 in many ways. Legions of trolls on every blog/ website calling for immediate escalation and asset seizure among calls to denude Europe of its armament in a proxy war.
The tail has wagged the dog so hard, the dog’s in danger of falling off. Or being nuked by Russia.
Meanwhile, the brilliant strategists of Washington DC have ensured that Russia and its vast natural resources will be held in the tender, loving embrace of the Chinese Communist Party for decades to come. That’ll be lots of fun when the US Navy tries ‘defending’ Taiwan.
Good thing we’ve always been at war with Eastasia.
Btw, I have (British) customers with property in Russia.
It’s a big problem and they don’t know what to do about it. The general approach seems to be “keep our heads down and see what happens”.
They’re not still in Russia because they’re making too much money to leave. They’re still in Russia because they’ve invested millions of pounds in plant and people, and they have a fiduciary duty to their own shareholders.
The writing’s on the wall and they’ll be forced out one way or t’other, but in the meantime what else can they do? I’m led to understand there is no queue of potential buyers willing to pay a fair price for British assets in Russia. The Chinese may end up acquiring some of them for pennies on the rouble.
Channeling my inner Chamberlain, I’d love to see a ceasefire and an end to the Ukraine war. Whether this’d work or simply be another Munich, I’m damifino.
As for confiscating peoples property, I don’t think highly of the results of the sanctions on Russia and I can’t see that placing huge taxes on investments in the place will work any better. I haven’t been impressed by the windfall taxes and price freezes placed on oil and gas in Oz either, after endless bans and lawfare raised energy prices.
“The Chinese may end up acquiring some of them for pennies on the rouble.”
There are a lot of politicians in the West who are being paid by China – for every one caught on the news, there are a hundred more.
It is possible that this is the design – call for confiscation, then the Chinese end up “buying” the assets (rather like the Russian oligarchs did now that I think of it).
This is the tactic that Michael Gove is implementing against the building industry so declarations of war aren’t actually necesary any more.
Russia will still exist, even if it loses. We imagine that getting rid of Putler will turn Russia into Germany post 1945. It won’t, it will turn Russia into Germany post 1919.
At the same time, there needs to be some form of punishment beyond condemnation, and potentially consumer boycotts, for the companies that remain.
I was trying to guess Guardian or Telegraph but even after all this time I still got it wrong.
Western governments clearly do not want all commerce cut off with Russia, otherwise they would have sanctioned it all. They’ve only sanctioned certain business, and Western companies should comply with that (i.e. the law). That’s all that’s needed. Sanctioned: stop. Non-sanctioned: carry on. Matthew Lynn can fuck right off.
Talk of ceasefire is stupid. No matter how it suits you, it doesn’t suit the parties at war.
Ukraine won’t agree to one. They are winning, and want their country back.
Russia will agree to a “ceasefire” only if it means they get to keep everything they hold, permanently. The war would be over tomorrow if they withdrew, after all.
If you are going to come up with asinine ways to solve international politics, stop making them Spud level “simple”.
“Estimate the amount that each multinational is making in Russia, double it, …”
So the starting point is an obviously unfair and unreasonable seizure.
Chester
Ok – stop sending aid to Ukraine. It isn’t a NATO member and we certainly shouldn’t be jeopardising our own defence to save it, or even the Eastern provinces which is primarily Russian speaking anyway. Then see if they continue ‘winning’. Maintain pressure through sanctions on individual Russians and corporate entities but open up to Commodities (fertiliser) especially. That should make a ceasefire more likely. Above all don’t put the equivalent of A Pomeranian Grenadier on the line for a corrupt and illegitimate administration that stole two elections and currently sits in the White House.
Chester
Imagine you lived in a mainly Russian speaking part of southern or eastern Ukraine in the period 2017-2021, but you speak both languages, were cool about the dual language road signs and liked having a bit of your identity in both camps. And then the elected centralised command in Kyiv over-rules your local deputies and says you can’t have that, new road signs in Ukrainian only, you can’t even watch Russian TV channels or aspire to send your children to university in Moscow.
Do you really want to punish those people by fighting this all the way back to the borders that existed on 23/2/22 against an army which has committed 97% of its forces to that area according to Ben Wallace (who almost certainly was misquoted but it’s a big % nonetheless). There will still be a lot of resistance and death inflicted on Ukrainian forces who don’t know what they’re really fighting for, unless they are true believers in Ukrainian supremacy over minority speakers who fell on the poorer side of some soviet era border.
@ Bongo
Read philip’s comment.
Russia will still exist if it loses: you cannot (honestly) say the same about Ukraine. The inhabitants will be subject to a puppet regime controlled from Moscow, comparable to the one that oversaw the holodomor that killed more than Hitler’s holocaust.
Some people cannot find better justifications for death marching the borders back to 23/2/22 than comparisons from over a lifetime ago. Blooming Nora John, even the risk of nuclear annihilation is more recent than that and 1945 seems a long time ago to me. But why not, let’s deep dive further into the past of peoples who are no longer around to justify a smash up of peoples already discriminated against, who bizarrely have not starved in the post-soviet era. Is that the best argument going – that Putin’s grandparents are people who might have approved of the holodomor ‘cos there is no evidence of mass starvation in the Putin era so far. I frigging despair.
The indifference to social fascism on the borders of our allies.
And Ukraine still exists, possibly a stronger more nationalist version still exists, if a truce is agreed broadly along the current line of engagement.
. . . stop sending aid to Ukraine.
Western countries aren’t sending aid to Ukraine for the benefit of Ukraine, they’re sending it for the benefit of themselves. They’ve quickly woken up to the grim reality of Russia and they know they’ll never get such a good cost benefit opportunity to see Russia humbled.
– Maintain pressure through sanctions on individual Russians and corporate entities but open up to Commodities (fertiliser) especially.
Yes, having shown weakness by given them what they want in Ukraine you suggest we kick their ankles while begging for essentials. Sheer diplomatic genius. You should stick to ranting about globohomo; it’s more credible.
“Even Samizdata seems unable to accept any comment deemed to be ‘pro Kremlin’ – ”
Yes, I’ve fallen foul of that Perry De Havilland too, who has deleted my posts on the subject of Russia/Ukraine there too. Obviously one of those ‘libertarians’ who talk the talk but can’t walk the walk – what a cunt.
. . . death marching the borders back to 23/2/22 . . .
As compared to the dainty, fluffy unicorn skipping of the borders up until now. LOL. Unbelievable.
But fuck that, I want a “death marching” of the borders back to 2013. As in, as many Russian troops killed as possible until they quit Ukraine or are pushed out. So they don’t have the numbers to try it again. (I’d rather they just went home to their families tonight, but my preferences don’t count for much).
– And Ukraine still exists, possibly a stronger more nationalist version still exists, if a truce is agreed broadly along the current line of engagement.
Ding. Ding. Seconds out; round three!
“Talk of ceasefire is stupid. No matter how it suits you, it doesn’t suit the parties at war.”
The party who (allegedly isn’t at war) a ceasefire has to suit is the USA. When they want one, they’ll get one. Until then the fighting must (and will) continue……….
Obviously one of those ‘libertarians’ who talk the talk but can’t walk the walk – what a cunt.
I get the same at Small Dead Animals. Strangely, gross ad hom attacks and comments about “filthy, sub-human orcs” are allowed; it seems it’s the reasoned arguments against the home editorial that aren’t tolerated.
The party who (allegedly isn’t at war) a ceasefire has to suit is the USA.
Not so. Russia can have a ceasefire today; just announce it suits them to leave the country they invaded.
“Not so. Russia can have a ceasefire today; just announce it suits them to leave the country they invaded.”
I don’t think the US would let the war end just because Russia agreed to return to its Feb 2022 borders. They’d demand Ukraine continue attacking Russia to make the war continue. They are doing too well out of the war for it to stop yet. They’d probably greenlight a Ukrainian attack on the Crimea to force Russia to fight.
PJF
MI6 must be paying you overtime for this
Western countries aren’t sending aid to Ukraine for the benefit of Ukraine, they’re sending it for the benefit of themselves. They’ve quickly woken up to the grim reality of Russia and they know they’ll never get such a good cost benefit opportunity to see Russia humbled.
You think Russia poses a credible threat to Western Europe? And what does a humbling entail? We’re planning to March into Russian territory? Tie them down in a quagmire? What is your endgame? Or theirs as you seem to have such an insight?
Yes, having shown weakness by given them what they want in Ukraine you suggest we kick their ankles while begging for essentials. Sheer diplomatic genius. You should stick to ranting about globohomo; it’s more credible
I’d suggest starvation of our own people and rolling power cuts because of our own stupidity is an even worse plan but seems to be your plan A. As for your scepticism about the WEF’s true agenda – I hope those insects taste good for you – and that the stipend you
Must be receiving from Schwab to express such sentiments is sufficient to complement the CIA and MI6 largesse.
I don’t think the US would let the war end just because Russia agreed to return to its Feb 2022 borders.
Nor should they. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Upping the ante and bringing the world to this point means they go back to Russia. And since Russia won’t be able to afford any reconstruction reparations, Ukraine (and Europe) will need all those natural resources in the Donbas and under the seas east and west of Crimea.
– MI6 must be paying you overtime for this
I think it adds up to about as much as Steve’s gold from Putin.
“Nor should they. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Upping the ante and bringing the world to this point means they go back to Russia. And since Russia won’t be able to afford any reconstruction reparations, Ukraine (and Europe) will need all those natural resources in the Donbas and under the seas east and west of Crimea.”
Ah, great, your plan involves NATO invading Russia. Like thats going to end well……..
Ah, great, your plan involves NATO invading Russia.
Right . . . so Ukraine pushing the invading Russians back to their border is, in your mind, NATO invading Russia.
“Right . . . so Ukraine pushing the invading Russians back to their border is, in your mind, NATO invading Russia.”
The Crimea IS Russia. They bought it, lock stock and barrel, just as the USA bought Alaska. If you’re suggesting invading the Crimea then you suggesting invading Russia. It won’t end well, for anyone.
– The Crimea IS Russia. They bought it, lock stock and barrel, just as the USA bought Alaska.
When? How far back are you going? And for your analogy to continue, it would be as if the USA voluntarily transferred Alaska to Canada and subsequently followed that up with an international security agreement recognising and guaranteeing Canadian sovereignty over Alaska.
By international law, Russia isn’t entitled to just take land by military force. That is why nobody except Russia, it’s usual coterie of dysfunctional acolyte nations, and some bizarre portion of disgruntled Western right wingers, recognises Russia’s claim.
It’s like some family who used to own part of your (Jim’s) land in 1953 just decides to forcibly reoccupy it despite all the legal transfers to you that occurred in the meantime – and threatens you with murder if you try to take it back. Because their great great granddad’s ashes are scattered there or some ancient bullshit.
Crimea is legally part of Ukraine. Ukraine is entitled by international law to defend its lands against invasion. And Ukraine pushing Russia out of Crimea is not “NATO invading Russia”, even by your perverse historical revisionism.