Skip to content

Ritchie’s inflation prediction

Of course, when the effects of Ukraine drop out of the previous year’s comparator then inflation will be over, right? Therefore no interest rate rises, cut ’em now!

UK inflation fell by less than expected in March, sticking in double figures as households came under pressure from food and drink prices soaring at the fastest annual rate since 1977.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index fell to 10.1% last month, resuming a downward trajectory after an unexpected rise to 10.4% in February. Inflation had peaked at 11.1% in October. City economists had forecast a drop to 9.8%.
The smaller than expected inflation dip comes amid a decline in global oil prices over recent months, and as the immediate impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February falls out of the estimates for the annual increase in consumer prices.

However, those falls were offset by the price of food and nonalcoholic drinks accelerating by 19.1% in the year to March, fuelled by record growth in the price of bread and cereals, as well as a sharp rise for biscuits and cakes.


Now, the way that science works is that you have a theory, So, you make a prediction from your theory. If the prediction turns out to be correct then you have not disproved your theory. I the prediction turns out to be incorrect then you have disproved your theory. That’s just science.

So, is ‘Taternomics a science or not?

10 thoughts on “Ritchie’s inflation prediction”

  1. It’s almost as if the inflation was caused by some other fuckwitted government intervention and the Ukraine war was just being used as a distraction!

  2. In answer to your concluding question… Economics certainly isn’t a “science” (other than of the “dismal” variety), and as Taternomics is a bastardised subset of poorly-understood economics, I’d venture to suggest that the answer is NO!

  3. Back in the summer of 2021 Spud had a series of blogs saying there was nothing to worry about regarding inflation. Nothing at all. He criticised the outgoing Bank of England Chairman who in the summer predicted inflation of 4% by Christmas 2021, saying this proved he didn’t know what he was talking about as there would be no inflation. Inflation was (IIRC correctly) 4.1% at Christmas.

    Obviously the Ukraine hoo-ha erupted in the spring of 2022, energy crisis and so on. So Spud uses these as his excuse for not predicting inflation. But that ignores the position prior to Ukraine, which he got completely wrong. Again.

  4. There’s no change to his theory Tim – if the results don’t come out as he intends it’s reality that needs to be redefined. This is all caused by:

    – Blatant profiteering by Private sector firms like oil companies

    – Excessive interest rates

    Don’t forget public sector pay rises ‘pay for themselves’…

  5. In fairness, aren’t the price increase for bread etc due in part to the disrupted supplies from Ukraine?
    So it might be premature to say the effects of the invasion have fallen out of the figures.

  6. Ah yes, record growth in the price of bread and cereals. Guess what the wheat price is today vs this time last year? Currently under £200/tonne, a year ago it was north of £300. Some inflation! So who exactly is pushing these prices up? Its not the producers. Why are the processors and retailers allowed to have such dominant market positions that they can set prices at whatever they like? Why doesn’t competition policy break up the processing and retail oligopolies?

  7. Geoffers, the EU are at this moment, berating the Poles and others for refusing grain from Ukraine, as importing it will reduce the price for domestic producers.

    For some unfathomable reason, I had been under the illusion that due to Putins war, there wasn’t any grain!!!!!

  8. Economics isn’t that kind of science. The predictions always fail but there is always a convenient excuse so the hypothesis survives.

    However, why doesn’t Tim apply that prediction rule to climate predictions. They always fail and there is no excuse but they plough ahead anyway. Couldn’t Tim and the ASI and the IEA, who all have things to say about net zero and carbon tax and Stern and Pigou, go back to the principle of falsifiabilty and declare the CO2 warming climate hypothesis unproven and therefore not to be acted upon?

  9. @rhoda klapp

    Nonsense! Climate doom-mongers have predicted at least 300 of the last 5 climate catastrophes.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *