You don’t take over Russia by invading Rostov on Don. You also don’t win the place by a revolution from the bottom up. The masses just don’t do that. Even the commies didn’t take the place that way.
If it’s not in the Kremlin it ain’t happening. The Tsar must lose his courtiers. That’s the only way regime change happens there.
As the man said: It’s a pity both sides can’t lose.
Rostov may not be the ideal place to be but he’s got quite a force and they’re better trained, led and armed than the Russian army. Apparently his forces have just shot down two Mi-8 transport helicopters and an Mi-35 helicopter gunship* and he’s not faced any opposition.
He appears to be in quite a good negotiating position and its going to be interesting to see how it plays out as it appears his wrath is aimed at Shoigu who he appears to detest with a vengeance, but in turn Shoigu is Putin’s useful idiot.
I’m sure Steve will be along soon to give us the official Putin line because its all been very quiet from the Kremlin.
*According to the ell connected Russian Telegram channel “Fighterbomber” – which is run by a pilot in the Russian airforce.
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One does wonder whether our good friend Puke will do as he’s been threatening Ukraine, and just nuke the Wagner group.
To me of course, this makes excellent sense.
Apparently Some Wagner forces are now en-route to Moscow, according to the British MOD.
This is going to be an interesting day…
You don’t take over Russia by invading Rostov on Don.
If the Kremlin can be disconnected from the strings that control the military, it’s powerless. The idea of taking the capital is very 1917. Power in countries is far more distributed these days. Think of the UK. You could take the country without bothering about London. Let it rot in its ULEZ. Nothing important actually happens in London. Cut the electric supplies, food runs out on the second day, it’d be anarchy with politicians barricading themselves in their offices.
As with all things in this conflict, take it all with a pinch of salt.
Smells a bit like theatre to me.
He’s going to march on Moscow? The Wagner group doesn’t have their own air support, so if the Ru armed forces wanted to wipe them out, they’d just send twenty* attack helicopters and pick them off from 15km away.
*Number plucked out of thin air
Ukraine has indicated that they’re going to try and exploit the weaknesses the Wagner group leaving makes in Russian lines. So maybe it’s theatre to indicate weakness in Russian lines and it’s actually a trap?
Or maybe it is real and he has support from the Ru armed forces. Who is going to replace Putin if he succeeds? Most of the likely candidates want a more, erm, robust approach to the not-a-war with carpet bombing and nukes. So should we be cheering?
Obviously, I’m a normal (ish) bloke from the Northern half of the UK, so like most people who aren’t Putin/Prigozhin/Shoigu, I’m clearly just speculating.
By controlling Rostov you control logistics for the 98% of the Russian army that is deployed in Ukraine.
Wat has it right. If claims are based in some kind of truth the army, the part engaged at the front, might sit back and wait to see who wins. The conscript hordes are not going to be too keen on taking on Ukraine without supplies. Or going up against Wagner. Who do seem to have some sort of air support. The oligarchs are gonna sit it out too.
As for Prigozhin, what’s that saying about striking and wounding?
“ One does wonder whether our good friend Puke will do as he’s been threatening Ukraine, and just nuke the Wagner group.”
He’d better be quick otherwise he’ll be nuking Moscow.
Several reports of MoD troops standing aside and/ or joining Wagner and reports of dissent within FSBin Moscow. Part of the problem is the slow response because most of senior MoD were still pissed when they got called in to instigate Op Fortress.
It will be an interesting test of loyalties
I don’t think the average russian conscript is keen on fighting and dying in Ukraine let alone against fellow Russians who until recently were doing the heavy lifting against Ukraine
There are reports of regular army units and even GRU units standing aside.
Of course the propaganda is flying in all directions but it may be that the regular army is just seeing how this plays out
At the end of the day the Russian government is like a mafia family and the greatest threat within the mafia is always one of their own
And I do think Prigozhin is mightily pissed off at the moment
Wat is right about the supply lines, and Wagner group potentially controls most of them now
Could be along and bloody struggle which hopefully the Ukrainian forces can exploit,if they weren’t behind it in the first place
How long before someone claims it is the CIA paying Wagner Group to revel..
They are mercenaries. Could they have been turned by American pressure? It’s easier to do that than get involved themselves. And the Americans could move in when the situation becomes so chaotic that “humanitarian assistance” looks like a good option.
Oh no, Starfish, it’ll be ‘Now the sub business is all over, what else will distract from Hunter Biden?’…
That’s the only way regime change happens there.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Besides which, having tens of thousands of proven and bitter fighters fomenting rebellion inside the borders doesn’t exactly look like successful hardman leadership. The courtiers are very likely considering their options. Maybe it’s Putin’s devious plan to unmask plotters, but it’s probably just vodka fuelled gangster pikeys doing what they do.
In this case I don’t think we need to blame (or credit) the CIA. The CIA are not responsible for Russian incompetence or internecine squabbles, Russia has always been able to manage that on its own. Ukraine might have been encouraging these events though, it has plenty of agents and fellow-travellers.
The Russian state can’t have been overly happy about the existence of a large body of armed men knocking around within their borders, regardless of what they got up to in Africa or Syria or Ukraine.
Prigozhin probably regarded himself as an ally of Putin, one of the inner circle. And assumed Putin was also fully in control of the regular military. Wagner’s status, value, to Putin would be increased if they were only marginally more successful than the regulars.
Seems likely that Prigozhin is correct, the regular Staff probably did attempt to degrade Wagner directly or indirectly (using them in Bakhmut).
But it’s also possible that Putin was quite happy for them to do it. Nasty shock for Prigo.
How long before someone claims it is the CIA paying Wagner Group to revel..
Less than five minutes for the next comment, Starfish, lolz.
I’ll bet Putin is staying well clear of upper floor windows and refusing all offers of tea.
I’m waiting for the inevitable Hitchens article in the Sunday Mail tomorrow blaming this on NATO and the abolition of Grammar Schools.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chechen-leader-says-his-forces-are-ready-help-put-down-wagner-mutiny-2023-06-24/
All very amusing. Reuters reported a few days ago that the Chechens were up for a contract that Wagner weren’t happy about.
I don’t see regime change happening because of this either, but it’ll increase the Kremlin’s paranoia, which doesn’t help anybody except for the folks who actually do want WWW3 this year.
Prigozhin has been releasing increasingly mental public statements for some time now, like an excitable second string baddie in a Harry Palmer film.
It’s a major failure of Russian leadership that they didn’t remove him as soon as Bakhmut wrapped up, and hopefully he has no means of getting access to atomic weapons.
Remember how “interesting” 1989 was? Well, we’re in interesting times again. Batman T-shirts lads.
It’s worth noting the Russians still haven’t cleared out all of the “Opposition” forces that went across into Belgorod oblast a couple of weeks ago, and they weren’t a big force at all. I expect Prigozhin took note of that fiasco and saw the inside of Russia as wide open.
Apparently it’s now fashionable to mention that one of Wagner founders has Nazi tattoos (proper ones), so we’ll be hearing more about that side of things, no doubt.
Starfish – if I were a betting man (I’m not, gambling is boring) I’d put money on Prigozhin being arrested before the sun goes down, and Wagner quietly standing down.
I don’t think Hitler or Prigozhin were right about the Russian government being a house of cards, I believe the Russian state will fight if it has to, and I don’t expect the mostly ex-convict light infantry of Wagner to prevail.
I expect they’ll attempt to make an offer he or his lieutenants can’t refuse, perhaps something involving money and quiet early retirement to a remote dacha, and perhaps a stern reminder about the welfare of any relatives they may have.
If they do refuse, I expect Russian forces to exterminate their commanders, along with anybody who helps them.
But if those guys are still camped out in Rostov on Don tomorrow morning, or the situation is in any way still ambiguous, all bets are off.
It’s dangerous for anyone in power to tolerate armed rebellion for very long. Russia.gov is up against the clock here.
Steve, if the russian army was any good it would have won and gone home by this time last year. It is/was a potemkin army, a structure of corruption with a credible appearance. But nobody told Putin how bad it was. Now it has become clear. I don’t think the army will stand anywhere except aside.
Oh, and they are already camped in Voroezh, rumour* says.
* Well, UK MoD, at least.
Rhoda – as I’ve been saying with annoying regularity since 2020, prepare to be disappointed (forget it, Jake…).
Has anyone checked on Ben Wallace MP? I fear he might have wanked himself into a stroke.
The whole point of Prigozhin’s complaint is that the Russian Defence Ministry forces are a Potemkin force, on account of funds being appropriated by its leaders. The fact that his forces have simply walked unopposed into the HQ and supply hub for the Southern Military District at Rostov rather bears this out.
He’s doing this not because the Kremlin is in command of a force which needs to be constrained or defeated. He’s doing it out of annoyance that it isn’t.
The rats are deserting:
“ #Kazakhstan Putin had a call with Tokayev and informed him about the situation in #Russia. Tokayev said that the ongoing events are an internal affair of Russia”
Lukashenko also reported to be sitting on his hands after taking a call from Putin.
Lukashenko reported to be on his jet and going to Turkey.
. . . I’d put money on Prigozhin being arrested before the sun goes down, and Wagner quietly standing down.
Is that Moscow sunset, Steve (about six hours away)? Just wanting to pin down your virtual bet.
Prigozhin and his lieutenants have crossed the Rubicon. They know this is victory or death* for them; that any offers will not be honoured. The Wagner people are brutal. People making threats against their families will know Wagner will torture their children to death in front of them if they succeed.
*Death was coming anyway. And if Gerasimov really is still in Rostov he must be sweating like a bastard.
How much of the Russian army, the actual fighting troops, is available inside Russia to resist Wagner? Not many, and those (this is speculation on my part) not answering the phone and the signalling equipment is broken today, we’re rushing as fast as we can to fix it.
It’s Saturday morning. They#ll be nursing a hangover anyway.
I believe the Russian state will fight if it has to,
Steve, the Russian State is some fat cunts sitting in offices couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
As always, the Mum of the guard on the palace gates will be deciding this. If her corns are playing up, heaven help Putin.
I’m waiting for the inevitable Hitchens article in the Sunday Mail tomorrow blaming this on NATO and the abolition of Grammar Schools.
Don’t be silly.
He’ll blame it on Marijuana.
Ukraine’s strategy should be to keep chipping away at the front as before but try to make it easier for Russian troops to surrender, after putting up a little resistance for show.
They will be very demoralised not knowing who has their best interests at heart.
It’s looking like this mutiny has been a couple of months in planning and not a spontaneous uprising. No real resistance so far and it will be interesting to see how motivated Putin’s forces are as Wagner troops get to their defensive line just south of Moscow. These are likely to be better trained and motivated than the rest of the Russian army, but that’s a low bar.
Twitter is saying (yes, I know, I know) that the Russian Army are digging in *inside* Moscow, mining bridges there, etc. I just can’t believe that – if the coup control the rest of the country, surely controlling Moscow is pointless? I dunno. I don’t think anyone knows. Apparently, one Putin mouthpiece has already blamed “The British” for fermenting this. He clearly hasn’t seen the state of the UK.
Don’t be silly.
He’ll blame it on Marijuana.
If course, silly me. He’ll have a new film out. Reefa Madnesski
It’s over 12hrs to drive from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow.
On normal roads in a car.
Plenty of time for the military to get a few choppers or planes together and strafe/bomb the shit out of this convoy.
Yet they’re reinforcing Moscow…
Why?
Is this just an excuse for the benefit of the civvies to further increase defence emplacements around the city. Maybe the Kremlin is expecting NATO to get involved after the two senators yesterday…
The Wagner convoy is heavily armed with air defence. They’ve already shot down Defence Ministry helicopters and fixed wing aircraft.
This whole saga is worthy of an African shithole. The only difference is that the Russians are less comically flamboyant about their corruption and incompetence.
You can take Wagner out of the African shithole, but you can’t take etc.
It’s been denied that Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St Petersburg so that’s another rumour confirmed.
Governor of Lipetsk region says Wagner column is moving through on its way to Moscow (250m).
World popcorn shortage deepens.
Map of progress here
https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1672607762272985088?s=61&t=VX5cJ0-osgn_JSz7j-uowQ
How big is a convoy of 25,000 troops? 4,000 vehicles? 2,500? Or is the 25k number a fantasy? Does anyone think they are just going up the motorway and will rock up to the first ‘roadblock’ and stop? It’s hard to see how the national guard will stop them. Air power and artillery maybe. A squad and a BTR? No. Moscow doesn’t ( I reckon) have the troops to protect any line of approach and not be flanked. Interesting times. My money’s on the mum of the guard.
Not all of Wagner will have gone to Moscow; they’ll need a sizable force to hold their southern gains against the Chechens. Those Kadyrov Chechens will be motivated because if the Russian centre falls they’ll be killed at home.
Whichever way this goes, some lot of scumbags are going to get their comeuppance.
I saw one report of a local woman filming part of it and claiming it took 30 mins for al vehicles to pass her and they were travelling fairly quickly.
There’s also a video of the road being dug up in Lipetsk region to slow them down.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1672609041938251777?s=61&t=VX5cJ0-osgn_JSz7j-uowQ
Why don’t the russian highway people switch on the matrix signs? That works on OUR M4.
PJF – Is that Moscow sunset, Steve (about six hours away)? Just wanting to pin down your virtual bet.
Yarp. That’s my guess: I think this will either get nipped today, or it’s likely to spiral out of control. I’d prefer things don’t spiral out of control in countries that have atomic weapons, but it’s not up to me.
Prigozhin and his lieutenants have crossed the Rubicon. They know this is victory or death* for them; that any offers will not be honoured. The Wagner people are brutal. People making threats against their families will know Wagner will torture their children to death in front of them if they succeed.
Yeah, I don’t think any of that is going to actually happen, but it’s definitely not gonna be boring as we find out.
I’m a little conflicted tbf. While I don’t think regime change in Moscow is likely or desirable, on t’other this seems like a heartwarmingly straightforward and old fashioned way of trying to be the change you want to see, which makes me jelly.
Our own coup was a lot more passive aggressive and gay, I think I’d respect Rishi more (some) if he was an Asiatic warlord instead of a simpering midget.
Anyway, from what I gather, the Chechens are rocking up to Rostov. That could mean imminent ultraviolence, or it could make the Wagner lads have a Come to Allah moment and rethink their plans.
I wonder if the Nic Cage / Sean Connery movie “The Rock” was popular in Russia.
BoM4 – I’m sure Steve will be along soon to give us the official Putin line because its all been very quiet from the Kremlin.
BiS –
Steve, the Russian State is some fat cunts sitting in offices couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
I thought they were supposed to be about to invade Latvia, Finland and Poland.
Russia: simultaneously the greatest living threat to world peace, necessitating massive military spending and (self-) crushing sanctions on our part, *and* just a bunch of fat cunts who couldn’t fight a chip wrapper.
The Schrodinger Menace.
“Steve, the Russian State is some fat cunts sitting in offices couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
I thought they were supposed to be about to invade Latvia, Finland and Poland.”
One does not preclude the other, the point being they don’t know or acknowledge that they are not masters of the universe. That alone makes them dangerous because the trouble is caused by what they attempt in their ignorance. See also WHO, WEF, neocons, democrats and the bloody parliamentary conservative party.
Random thoughts: I’ve been hoping we could argue about the role/viability of tanks in modern warfare, and what that means for the future (if any) of big maneuver warfare, and what that means for the next war (I have some opinions about drones) but the political stuff keeps getting in the way.
Coup attempt wargaming: Here’s the potential outcomes – let me know if I have missed any.
1) The coup/rebellion/whatever fizzles out more of less peacefully and Prigozhin buggers off / is arrested. My current #1 guess, but I don’t know enough to be certain. Depends on a number of factors and assumptions about local force strengths / morale / motivations, but you don’t get to be Tsar for 24 years without having a firm grip on the regime, so
2) Kronstadt Rebellion Ending – Russian Fed forces murder them into submission. If it turns into a fight, this is my likeliest guess. Wagner are light infantry mercenaries / recently released ex-convicts. They should not have either the force or the public sympathy required to win a shooting war with the Russian government. Also based on a number of assumptions and yaddas, but look at Prigozhin. Does he look more like the Russian Napoleon, or a Slavic Colonel Bat Guano?
3) Major internal escalation to civil war – this is the Ben Wallace marital aid outcome where one or more players in Russian politics/government/military comes to the aid of the rebels. This might lead to Putin being deposed quickly, or a horrifying replay of their previous civil war, but with nukes for added shits n gigs. Currently, all evidence seems against this scenario, but we can’t rule it out.
Putin better pray for option 1, because all other options come with considerable risk to him.
No, Wagner probably doesn’t get the Mum vote (they’re mercs and people who were recently doing time for murder), but any killing of Wagner forces on Russian soil, however necessary, would be like waltzing into a minefield.
Bonus Content DVD Extra Spooky Halloween Version: Prigozhin takes over the Russian state and its vast arsenal of nuclear weapons, then turns to the camera with a fourth wall shattering, sinister smile.
Fade to black.
Another possible scenario, riffing on option 1 is. Prigozhin arrives at Moscow, nothing much happens Shiogu disappears. Everybody goes back to what they were doing before, the less said the better.
In related news: “ Ukrainians reported to have crossed Dnipro by Kherson. If that’s true the Russians are screwed. The Ukrainians took out all their logistics last week.”
Also lots of rumours of Russian troops flipping to Wagner.
Steve. Russians in Russia will be pondering what’s best for them, individually. Since this is all happening in Western, westernised Russia & not a thousand miles east of the Urals, that’ll be about getting back to eating in decent restaurants, going on foreign holidays & emulating Germans. None of them will laying down their lives for Mother Russia although they wouldn’t mind a bit of risk for a new Mercedes. I’d ring my mate in Moscow & ask his opinion. But I doubt he’d be giving it over an open phone line. I’d imagine it centres round what gets him quickest to the totty in the Mosh bar in Marbella.
Prigozhin looks to me very much the pragmatist. The best game in town for a while was running mercenary private armies. If he gets his hands on Russia’s nuclear stockpile, he’ll be looking round for the highest bidder, not wasting them by using them. Of course the 007 script would involve white cats, mobs of identically uniformed stunt men & holding the West to ransom. But then what? How does he collect his winnings?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12230141/Wagner-chief-agrees-escalate-END-mercenary-groups-march-Moscow.html
So apparently they’ve turned around.
Nothing to see here. Carry on.
Not a diversion or excuse to boost Moscow defences at all.
Well, that was fun while it lasted.
To be fair, I was worried about all the Putin stooges having to sign on come Monday, universal credit is a bit of a minefield, apparently.
So the question is, what’s happened to Putin?
Nobody I follow called that one.
Its hard to see how its over, Putin can’t let Prigozhin keep his army and without his army Prigozhin is a dead man walking so it must be one hell of a deal.
This is why I think it’s all been for show.
Prigozhin will quietly retire to a nice large house in Belarus.
But what about the men who were with him marching on Moscow? Back to prison? Back to Ukraine? Back of head bullet?
Prigozhin was useful for a while, he threw people off balance, kept up the rumours of all not being well in the Russian military. But his usefulness was coming to an end. People were wising up to the act. Particularly when he started saying demonstrably false statements. So as one final maskirovka he leads a “coup” and is paid off by having a nice house in Belarus. Obviously can’t be in Russia for optics.
The men go back to fight in Ukraine as per their contract and it’s all forgotten about.
I can’t see this returning to status quo ante. More shoes to drop, I reckon.
The “musicians” appear to have had some sympathy on their desperate march on Moscow. Capturing two cities without firing a shot is pretty impressive.
Nevertheless Putin commands – at least nominally – twenty times the force.
Did Prizgovin blink? What was the deal brokered – allegedly – by Lukashenko?
Unless it was an actual surrender – unlikely, because the consequences are the annhilation of Wagner sooner or later – some sort of deal has been reached which gives some security to Priz and his men.
Command of the regular army in Donbas, perhaps?
As with all deals the devil’s in the details. The parties involved are probably not the trusting type, I would therefore expect there to be some immediate action to fulfil the terms of the deal. Don’t know if it will all be visible to outsiders or not, but I’d bet that not fulfilling the deal will end in some more obvious actions.
Out of all today’s announcements this one may be the least believable. Prizgorin has agreed to go into retirement in Belorussia. He’s a nasty piece of work but he’s not an idiot.
He struck at a king and missed, so I can’t see Prigozhin living very long. Once they’ve dismantled Wagner forces enough that they can’t make a fuss, the Prig will likely meet a very grizzly end. And if the Kremlin doesn’t do it, a very pissed off section of mercenaries will. No great loss to the world.
Not a good look for the Special Military Operation really, having to desperately throw together a defence of Moscow from your own force. And then having Belarus rescue you from full debacle.
Well, the bloke in Sudan hasn’t given up yet. I suppose he has more sense than Prig.