But might it be that Axel Springer is not running Business Insider all that well?
China’s economy is turning into a big black blob.
This transformation means that while the country’s economy will still be significant to global business, it will no longer be the lodestar for growth. It will still advance, but much more slowly. And while those on the outside will still be able to observe the economy, it will become increasingly difficult to truly understand what’s going on within.
Is there a Bulwyer Lytton for business articles? And could I win it (Dennis the P says Yes! Timmy!)?
The subject is fine, the basic analysis works too. But, umm……
“It was a dark and stormy night; the rain fell in torrents—except at occasional intervals, when it was checked by a violent gust of wind which swept up the streets (for it is in Beijing that our scene lies), rattling along the housetops, and fiercely agitating the scanty flame of the lamps that struggled against the darkness, turning China’s economy into a big black blob.”
There, fixed it. And could I win the Bulwyer-Lytton contest for just about anything I put my mind to? Timmy says “Yes! Dennis!” And so should all of you!
Probably all done by AI. Although BI has always been awful. It does make me wonder what they used previously. I’m guessing a warehouse full of monkeys and typewriters.
It’s right now that I should point out that Dennis is the only one of us who actually did take a writing course with PJ O’Rourke.
As PJ was wont to say, you only ever really understand writing when you try to parody it. For that’s when you’ve got to really look a the nuts and bolts of it to be able to do the parody, see?
Correction: I took several creative writing courses from John Weigel and Milton White. They taught PJ O’Rourke writing while he attended Miami University. That was 10 years before I hit the campus. I did meet O’Rourke once at one of Weigel & White’s creative writing conferences, which means I told him my name and shook his hand while he was quite drunk and somewhat belligerent.
I do remember his speech at the conference, though. We – budding artistes all – hated it, but had any of us had brains, we would have followed his advice to the letter. What was it? “Drop the bullshit and get over yourself. Go out and live life fully, then write about it.”
The writing didn’t seem too bad to me.
Of course I like scifi.
PS. You’re tempting me Dennis. Maybe one of these days I’ll actually try Bulwer-Lytton.
I can do Management Bullshit bon mots, but it takes me huge amounts of research to find the right sort of bullshit to fit together to get a decent parody. If we take a helicopter overview and concentrate on blue cheese thinking we can optimalise the strategic…. see I’ve run out, and I’ll have to go through my notes to finish it off.
Wouldn’t you expect China’s economic growth to slow down after it moved up from being an agrarian economy to a modern economy in the space of a few decades? There are still a massive number of things that I buy that have made in China written on them, including a pack of Bosch PZ2 screwdriver bits that I bought yesterday.
This is happening because Xi’s China is one that puts ideology before economic growth.
Do they even put BLM-LGBTQIA flags on their windmills?
I was reading about James Cleverly yesterday. He’s causing a deal of excitement in London (I doubt anyone in Beijing gives very many fucks) over visiting China.
It would be unfair to call IDS the neocon wing of the Tories, as they’re all Blairists. But there’s definitely a spectrum of aggression in foreign affairs:
However, former Conservative party leader and minister Sir Iain Duncan Smith, who is one of five MPs sanctioned by China, said the visit was the latest stage of “Project Kowtow”.
He told the PA news agency the UK position “smells terribly of appeasement”.
It’s always 1938, and everyone still wants to be Churchill.
Mr Cleverly has responded to these criticisms by promising to “challenge” China over its relationship with Russia and whatnot. As we know, Chinamen love it when foreigners rock up to lecture them.
But missing from the British press is any sense of proportion.
China’s GDP is about $18 trillion dollars, the UK’s is about $3 Tn.
China is the world’s greatest manufacturing power, the UK is, ummm… not.
China is a military superpower with about 2 million men under arms, the UK has two floating gay discos and an army that couldn’t fill Wembley Stadium.
If talking to/at the Chinese is “appeasement”, what’s the alternative? Is it war? If so, how do we expect to defeat a much bigger, much richer, and much more populous power at the opposite end of the planet?
– China’s GDP is about $18 trillion dollars . . .
Not for long.
– China is the world’s greatest manufacturing power . . .
Not for long.
– China is a military superpower . . .
Not yet it isn’t. It cannot significantly project power beyond its immediate surrounds. It cannot police, let alone defend, its trade routes. Our “gay discos”, as part of a stylishly dressed group of close friends, can sail all the way to the South China Sea for a vigorous dance off.
– If talking to/at the Chinese is “appeasement”, what’s the alternative? Is it war?
No, deterrence and alliances to avoid war. No matter how it’s dressed up, any talk should be a reminder that we can close them down in less than a week.
PJF – Not for long.
Dreams.
Not yet it isn’t. It cannot significantly project power beyond its immediate surrounds. It cannot police, let alone defend, its trade routes. Our “gay discos”, as part of a stylishly dressed group of close friends, can sail all the way to the South China Sea for a vigorous dance
They don’t need to “significantly project power”, they just need to be able to police the South China Sea.
Which they can, and will if forced to. The Royal Navy’s floating gay discos will be underwater gay discos if they are unwise enough to intervene in any potential Taiwanese kerfuffle.
No, deterrence and alliances to avoid war.
Imagine thinking our foreign is about preventing wars…
No matter how it’s dressed up, any talk should be a reminder that we can close them down in less than a week.
Can “we”?
Maybe by that time, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will have succeeded as well.
Steve has never met a scumbag regime he doesn’t admire.
Snag – untrue, I don’t support the UK government.
– Dreams.
Brutal reality.
– Can “we”?
Of course “we” can. China is completely reliant on imports. We don’t need to go anywhere near China to shut them down. Even India could cut off China’s energy route from the middle east.
PJF @ 1.10 and snag @ 1.34, it appears that anyone who can see reality is to be denounced as a quisling / stooge / appeaser / apologist.
That anyone should consider the UK powerful enough to drive a couple of small boats thousands of miles across the ocean into someone elses’ backyard and start telling them what to do is mental. That anyone should consider that that is something we should even contemplate is certifiable.
This is not Zanzibar, 27 August 1896.
PJF, have just read your latest thread. I suppose we simply ask Uncle Vlad to stop supplying oil and gas to the Chinks and it’s job done…..?
PJF – Brutal reality.
Based on what? There’s a lot of smoke being blown up people’s arses right now about how the Chinese economy is about to shit its pants and die.
This seems to be based on the impeccable logic that Xi is a Bad Man.
No doubt we’re in for a terrible period of global economic pain, but it seems fantastical to assume this is likely to significantly change the position of China.
Their factories, distribution chains, and decades of institutional knowledge aren’t going to simply go away because of a recession.
On t’other, their would-be Western adversaries are deliberately sabotaging their own ability to generate electricity.
Of course “we” can. China is completely reliant on imports. We don’t need to go anywhere near China to shut them down. Even India could cut off China’s energy route from the middle east.
Have you seen a map recently? China has a rather long land border with a country that can supply them with all the energy they need. Welding Russia and China together isn’t a smart play, but it’s the one we’ve chosen.
It’s the same map that tells us trying to militarily defend Taiwan is a bad idea. Taiwan is thousands of miles away from us, but right next door to China. They have plenty of missiles to fire into the South China Sea and the ISR to designate targets, so a foreign expeditionary fleet would not survive long.
India, otoh, has cast its lot in with the BRICs, and doesn’t seem to believe China is about to stop being an economic superpower. The Hindoos are preparing for a very different Brutal Reality.
Russia can’t supply China’s energy needs soon – the infrastructure projects required to do so would be massive, a complete reorientation of their networks.
Moreover the Chinese government have preferred to diversify their energy imports in order to avoid the dependency mistake that a lot of European countries fell into. That’s a deliberate, strategic choice – if they do end up reliant on Russia due to shifts in geopolitics, not an outcome I think likely, that will be regarded by them as a failure of their risk management.
There are also a lot of senior decision makers in Russia who are waiting the current “local difficulties” out, for all the talk of the growth of the BRICS the eventual reopening of European expert markets will be the real gold rush for them. They aren’t very excited about potential sales to India in twenty years time. And becoming dependent on China as an export market isn’t great for Russia either – if they have no other options they’ll get their balls squeezed. They spent megabucks building infrasturucture to let them export more to Europe compared to what they did on access to the Chinese market. Because they knew Europe was where the real money is.
Addolff – it appears that anyone who can see reality is to be denounced as a quisling / stooge / appeaser / apologist
It’s weird, because you’re still a Putin-lover and Xi-bot even if you also point out that Russia/China are corrupt, dysfunctional shitholes run by gangsters and their Mums are ugly too.
Russia is a traditional enemy, so we’re already primed to dislike them. But what have the Chinese ever done to us?
The British government, which “can’t” stop hordes of dinghy rapists arriving on our shores every day, has no business worrying about a foreign island 6,000 miles away being invaded. Interestingly tho, our elephant worshipping midget in chief seems to be playing it slightly cooler on the Sinophobic remarks than his predecessor. Not that that’s likely to mean much, Uncle Sam wants war with China before 2030 and we’re Uncle Sam’s lucky mascot.
– Based on what? There’s a lot of smoke being blown up people’s arses right now about how the Chinese economy is about to shit its pants and die.
It’s not new, it’s just the mainstream is catching up. There are myriad sources from many spectra out there. The fact that Chinese growth was primarily funded by government lending should be an obvious pointer that it has been misdirected (that’s why you have empty cities and factories that nobody wants). There are massive credit problems with repayments failing. Imports and exports are down. They are in trade wars with their suspicious customers and have no useful allies (nobody even likes them). Youth unemployment at 20%, new car sales negative. They are technically in deflation. Their proposed solution (they know they’re in the shit even if you don’t) to move away from government investment and exports into domestic consumer spending crashes into their diabolical demographic bomb.
– This seems to be based on the impeccable logic that Xi is a Bad Man.
The fact that Xi has drawn all power to himself should indicate to you that he knows the shit is about to hit.
– Their factories, distribution chains, and decades of institutional knowledge aren’t going to simply go away because of a recession.
Said Steve, surprised at the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
– Have you seen a map recently? China has a rather long land border with a country that can supply them with all the energy they need.
China’s energy imports are primarily crude oil (there are gas pipelines but not extensive). That means ships. LNG means ships. This assumes Russia will be in a position to supply.
– . . . Taiwan . . .
There won’t be a war to defend Taiwan. The US has already accepted “one China” with the capital in Beijing, and is getting hi-tech off the island as soon as possible. It’s Chinese escapades into the wider region that “we” are concerned with. Given their problems, deterrence should suffice (particularly now they’ve seen what just a few “NATO” weapons can do to a big army).
– India, otoh, has cast its lot in with the BRICs . . .
LOL, Brics again.
PJF @ 1.10 and snag @ 1.34, it appears that anyone who can see reality is to be denounced as a quisling / stooge / appeaser / apologist.
I made no such denouncement, so fuck you and your misrepresentations.
On this other project of mine. Natural gas demand down. We find out because accounts of foreign reporting companies are more difficult to use to mislead:
https://www.dhakatribune.com/financial-markets/323486/enn-energy
PJF, just back from the pub perhaps? Apologies, it must have been a different PJF posting about Pootin for the last 18 months.
. . . it must have been a different PJF posting about Pootin for the last 18 months.
That would be the imaginary one in your demented little mind.
The closest you could get is a general critique of appeasement as a policy (from wiki):
“Appeasement, in an international context, is a diplomatic policy of making political, material, or territorial concessions to an aggressive power to avoid conflict.”
And maybe an exchange of sarc / general insults when things got spicy.
Google is a thing so it should be easy for you to back up your claim of 18 months of denouncements. You could do that, or you could withdraw your false accusation, or you could carry on being a lying sack.