The huge spike in yields witnessed over the last few weeks means the market is now predicting a recession next year. And no sitting President has been voted back into office while the economy is shrinking since 1900 with one exception.
It may not matter whether he begins delivering great speeches, or faces a weak Republican candidate – the bond markets have already killed Biden’s chances of a second term.
That assumption being that the bond markets are always right. They’re always influential, they movements have effects. But always right in their predictions? That’s a tought sell.
Markets are always right about what prices in markets are today. They’re efficient at processing the information about what prices should be today. They’re probably the bist looking glass we’ve got to peer into the future. But all predictions of all markets all the time are correct? That’s a tough sell there.
#Now, me, I hope Trump wins. On no ground other than that I entirely despise the current D (and soft R) establishment. As with 2016, it was despising Hillary that did it for me, not loving anyone else.