Sadly, the model used by the government to decide this was produced by an organisation that used to have Richard Murphy on the board. Therefore, obviously, the answer is no.
What we want to know is whether government spending upon the renewables transition makes us richer or not. Therefore we need to use a model that is equivocal – or possibly even neutral – about the effect of government spending. Only if we start from the point that government spending is neutral can we then go on to ask whether government spending on windmills (or, to be less perjorative, the green transition) is beneficial. This is a piece of logic that should be obvious but sadly does need to be spelt out.
That’s because the model that is being used here assumes that government spending grows the economy. The results gained from the model do not, in fact, distinguish between spending upon green or upon anything else. The effect is purely driven by that original assumption: that more is better.