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I doubt it will make much difference

If he does win, that is:

Trump predicted to win election as Biden’s approval rating hits new low
Voter poll finds ‘disaffected Democrats’ on the increase, with third-party runners also a threat to current president

But it sure would be fun to watch. From a distance.

12 thoughts on “I doubt it will make much difference”

  1. My prediction.

    There is no way Biden will stand. He’s a vegetable as it is. I know this means they can manipulate him, but they can’t if he literally can’t speak or walk and that’s where he’s headed.

    They will get to the Convention and he will step aside on health grounds for the Californian psychopath.

    Meanwhile, they’re trying all sorts of legal and probably illegal chicanery to keep RFK Jr off the ballot in as many of the 50 states as they can to scupper him.

    And if all else fails and Kennedy or Trump (who whoever is the GOP nom) gets enough votes they’ll just get a few million new ones for Newsom (I assume) delivered at 4am.

  2. @Interested

    But… how do you solve a problem like Kamala?

    If Biden is no longer competent (on health grounds) to continue as President, Kamala could become President and thus the next candidate.

    In any case, if Biden is removed from the ballot close to the election, she almost certainly would replace him, since she would be on the ticket anyway as VP.

    The Dems could decide something else, but it would cause a lot of turmoil for them.

  3. But it sure would be fun to watch. From a distance.

    Well it’s a matter of taste but the last race wasn’t edifying and the doddering old drooIer wasn’t properly paraded around the paddock for the track-fanciers to appraise. If, as before, the 03:00 hours demographic sways the final furlong then why bother watching the earlier stages?

    More fun by a country mile will be the result if Trump wins, especially if he feels vindictive.

  4. Trump v Biden in 2024 has the same vibe as that old man fight between Gregory Peck and Larry Oliver in The Boys From Brazil.

    You feel a bit dirty for watching.

  5. I doubt if the Democrat power brokers would have a problem with Kamala.

    She’s already shown a willingness to go down on her knees for figures of authority.

  6. Re: “I doubt it will make much difference” – from 2017 until the Wu Flu arrived Trump’s approach to regulation, U.S. energy production and taxes drove the greatest economy in history – including the lowest black and Hispanic unemployment rates in U.S. history. Real wages for non-college grads rose faster than college grads (the Populist appeal was that this could happen).

    Granted, the entrenched bureaucracy will be an obstacle, but he would improve life significantly for just about all Americans.

  7. @John B

    If Biden is no longer competent (on health grounds) to continue as President, Kamala could become President and thus the next candidate.

    As I understand it, and some of our yank colleagues can clarify or offer alternative views when they wake up, no-one wants Kamala.

    They just need to keep Biden alive for a few more months (he hasn’t been competent on health grounds for years, so just being even worse isn’t going to be an issue),

    If he dies that changes the picture, assuming anyone can tell, but I expect Kamala will get a visit either telling her she is stepping aside or making clear to her she is a figurehead (like Biden) until the 2024 election, at which she will not be running.

  8. @Interested
    The Democrats have a big problem here. If Joe Biden quits or dies, and Kamala isn’t the nominee, a large number of blacks will walk off the Democrat plantation. They probably won’t vote Republican. Most likely they won’t vote, or will go third party. This is a huge problem in close states with large black populations like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

  9. Trump has more to fear from RFK Jr than Biden, as even RFK Jr admitted

    Left will still vote for Biden, but many “Never Trump” centre and RINO will vote RFK Jr

  10. If the Dems pass over kamala for a white dude there will be some shrieking from the usual suspects, but very little change in voting habits as a result. A large number of Dems vote their wallet (welfare, college profs, administrators, DIE & gender studies types), others it’s just their secular religion.

    A bit like the fems who were furious that Hopey McChange replaced the Hildebeast and swore they wouldn’t vote, most fell in line.

  11. @Mohave Greenie

    The Democrats have a big problem here. If Joe Biden quits or dies, and Kamala isn’t the nominee, a large number of blacks will walk off the Democrat plantation. They probably won’t vote Republican. Most likely they won’t vote, or will go third party. This is a huge problem in close states with large black populations like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

    According to the NYT, black support for Trump (as opposed to any generic GOP candidate I suppose) is at 22%, up from 8% in 2020 (which was itself up from 6% in 2016).

    Maybe the influx of South American, African and Middle Eastern ‘new Americans’ is having an impact?

    In fact, I believe the only demograpic which is still solidly for Biden and the Dems is white women. Perhaps that will change when the raping begins in earnest.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-trump-black-voters-poll-democrats.html

    @Pcar

    Trump has more to fear from RFK Jr than Biden, as even RFK Jr admitted

    Left will still vote for Biden, but many “Never Trump” centre and RINO will vote RFK Jr

    Depends – Biden/Dems big issue is that their v otes pile up in a few places. A smaller hit to their vote than to Trump’s could still favour Trump because of the Electoral College system (which is why the Dems are trying to abolish that system).

    Personally I’d go for De Santis, on the basis of his halfway decent handling of the ‘pandemic’ and his continued animus and that of Ladapo to Big Pharma.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/01/spoiler-alert-rfk-jr-takes-eye-popping-22-in-poll-against-biden-trump-00124855

  12. @Interested

    Thanks. Hadn’t considered Electoral College system (don’t know much about)

    On DeSantis, my opinion from start was Trump, DeSantis for 2024 then DeSantis in 2028

    I hope Trump doesn’t go diverse-stupid and pick WEF Halley or fake Ramaswamy as running mate

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