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Sadly, it’s not possible to email Engadget to tell of this error because they don’t give an email addy where you can email Engadget. So, instead:

Risk mitigation isn’t a sexy notion but it’s worth understanding how common it is for a new drug project to fail. To set the scene, consider that each drug project takes between three and five years to form a hypothesis strong enough to start tests in a laboratory. A 2022 study from Professor Duxin Sun found that 90 percent of clinical drug development fails, with each project costing more than $2 billion. And that number doesn’t even include compounds found to be unworkable at the preclinical stage. Put simply, every successful drug has to prop up at least $18 billion waste generated by its unsuccessful siblings, which all but guarantees that less lucrative cures for rarer conditions aren’t given as much focus as they may need.

No. The paper referenced:

Drug discovery and development is a long, costly, and high-risk process that takes over 10–15 years with an average cost of over $1–2 billion for each new drug to be approved for clinical use.

It’s the successes that cost up to $2 billion each, the cost of a failure depends upon the stage at failure – Phase I, II, III and so on.

The journalist, Daniel Cooper, studied at City University and lives in Norfolk. Whether it’s the eduational or geographic proximity to Professor Richard J Murphy is as yet unknown.

13 thoughts on “Ouch”

  1. Slightly off topic – but based on the post regarding the ICAEW last week the funding for his absurdities is drying up – And Hamas are clearly the future source of funding for ‘Funding the Future’…. Reproduced in totalis (Sorry Tim – but we need to show what kind of person we are dealing with. Someone who would have been extremely comfortable in Dachau)

    Genocide is defined as the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.

    Using the pretext of utterly unacceptable 7 October Hamas attacks, in response to which Israel had the clear and certain right to defend itself, Netanyahu has launched a campaign of genocide with the intention – as his ministers and he have made clear – of eliminating Palestine, forcing the people of Gaza out of their territory and removing for good (in his opinion) the chance of a two-state solution.

    That is a genocide that is being pursued with wanton disregard for human life and the harm caused.

    Of course, Kate Osamor was right to refer to it as such.

    And no one can say she was anti-Semitic for doing so. Pointing out that Israel has a fascist government that is pursuing genocide is not anti-Semitic: it is stating an observable fact.

    So what is Labour doing?

    As usual, it is in denial of the facts.

    It is, as ever, living in fear.

    And as a consequence, it is on the wrong side of public opinion.

    But that is what we should expect a party that is now Zionist and which has no regard for human beings or human rights to do, and that is what Labour is now. I hate to say that, but I can see no other conclusion.

  2. Dennis, Noting The Bright Light Emanating From Ely

    Whether it’s the eduational or geographic proximity to Professor Richard J Murphy is as yet unknown.

    Although the intellectual proximity seems rather obvious.

  3. Of course, there are couple of points the professor made that are still worth noting even if he exaggerated them. For one, it takes a long time to bring a new drug to market. Also, in world where many advances come after a lot of trial and error, the errors do occur and they do cost. So, while the $18B figure, nine times the estimated direct cost of bringing a new drug to market, is exaggerated, there was still a lot of money spent on the failures. Though whether that was wasted is debatable as we don’t know how much was learned from the failures that contributed to the final success.

  4. Bloke in the Fourth Reich

    What you learn from the failures is that a particular product does not do (well enough) what is asked of it relative to its negative effects.

    This knowledge is not “waste”, it is merely of lower value than the knowledge leading to a marketable product.

  5. What you learn from the failures is to persuade regulators to grant you Emergency Use Authorisation coupled with indemnity against all adverse events. Yellow cards? VAERS? I laugh at your yellow cards and VAERS?

  6. Plus the ‘failures’ can turn out to have other uses- see for example Viagra (originally developed to treat heart diseases) and Thalidomide ( used for [non- pregnant] cancer patients)

  7. What BiFR says…

    Had a lovely chat with a biochemist last weekend about her current research, which involves targeted tagging of cancer cells.

    Which looked promising, but doesn’t seem to work as intended. So will never give a Cure for Cancer as-is.
    Yet they still pursue this line of inquiry, because the mechanism why this particular method doesn’t work is not clear. Because it should. Or at least should do better.

    Some would have this tagged as “wasted research”. Which it isn’t , because it exposed (yet another) “Weren’t me, Guv'” mechanism cancer cells use as a defense against our immune police.
    Against which Inquiries are now being Proceeded.
    Bringing us one tiny step closer, even though the research did not deliver according to the original proposal.

    So not a waste at all. ( and a damn interesting read for a Nerd like me…)

  8. @VP – don’t you just love the whine of the anti semite in full flow “But that is what we should expect a party that is now Zionist and which has no regard for human beings or human rights to do, and that is what Labour is now. ” – not like the good ole days of corby when it was proudly antisemitic. How he misses the old days of reliving the final solution.
    What i always ask these anti semites when they proclaim their innocence – where were your protests when muslims/arabs were busily massacreing their fellow muslims/arabs in Syria/Yemen/Afghanistan ? Let alone the chinese putting a million Uighurs in re education camps (aka concentration camps) ? All i get back is crickets or quotes from the institunionally corrupt Un.
    My take is that if the Palestinians were to disappear for good , the world wouldn’t really miss them. Its not as if the same would apply to the Jews who have contributed massively in medicine, the sciences etc.

  9. You don’t apply for FDA or EMA approval fir a drug that doesn’t work.
    But it costs a billion or so to get through them. So half the $2bn to market cost is that admin. Probably closer to $3 or $4bn is about right per successful drug.

    Incidentally that vast FDA cost is probably the reason why Insulin is so damned expensive in the US. One company got through, FDA costs sunk and minting it. A new entrant would not expect much profit on its $1bn outlay inside of a decade.

  10. US insulin problem is more subtle. It’s FDA regs over biosimilars. Under FDA regs those have to go through the same testing process as a new drug – the $2 billion. The old, 1920s, insulin costs spit, as it does here. The copies of the new stuff don’t exist, the $2 billion costs.

    Incorrectly, but a useful way to think of it, FDA regs don’t allow generics of new insulins. Thus the price stays, stays, that high.

    About 2 years back (??) the FDA changed those regs. We are now, just, beginning to see “generics” of the new insulins arriving on the market. Much, much cheaper regulatory process.

    This is actually one of those problems now solved.

  11. Heard a great comment the other day which is worth repeating.

    “If Israel had no regard for innocent human life, as is claimed, the war in Gaza would have been over by October 8th”

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