I know about the poll which says so:
Oust Sunak or Tories face election massacre, warns former Cabinet ally
Sir Simon Clarke says ‘extinction is a very real possibility’ as poll suggests Tories could beat Labour with new leader
And I rather doubt it. Sure, St Kemi or the like might sway a few. But the real Tory probglem is, I think, a general upchuck about them – the party, the time servers, even the wets.
Doesn’t mean they won’t try of course….
Well, if the Conservatives showed any evidence of being actual Conservatives, things might be different. Otherwise, to take one example, you have a choice between a party with an established record of letting over a million people per year into the country, and three/four parties who want to let EVEN MOAR!!! in.
Hypothetical polling (“would you vote for our party if they had a leader who said X, Y and Z”) is almost always baloney. For one thing it’s commissioned by people with a point to prove (as this poll was) so the questions have been framed that way for a reason. Once you actually put such a leader in place, and they’re no longer hypothetical but rather a flesh and blood human with personal and political track records for the press and their political opponents to dive into, then the real talking points might well turn out to be A, B and C rather than X, Y and Z and voters make a different decision. People might tell pollsters they’d vote for a theoretical leader who’d deliver the moon on a stick but that’s not to say they’ll personally warm to the next person who claims they’ll do so. You can’t even trust people to tell pollsters the truth about who they voted for at the last election – a fascinating phenomenon where people “misremember” that they voted for the guy they want to win now, rather than the one they actually did but don’t like any more – let alone some fantasy election which doesn’t translate to the real world.
Of course, some hypothetical polling is “right” – it couldn’t be otherwise, do enough hypothetical polls on hypothetical candidates and at least one will give the true result should that scenario transpire. But most of it can’t even be falsified since the hypothetical scenarios don’t occur – at least for opinion polling with real candidates, we know what the track record of pollsters is like at forecasting actual outcomes. Hypothetical polling just isn’t very convincing evidence that a particular cause is going to sweep the nation. Even if the same poll had been repeated with various high-ranking Tories explicitly named in place of Sunak, I’m pretty confident the respondents would have rejected the lot of them. Which is one reason why the sort of people who commission then pump this line of research prefer to keep the candidate hypothetical.
I don’t see this working. There isn’t really time for a new leader to make a difference and anybody who proposes actual reform would get the Truss treatment. You can’t reverse decades of failure and betrayal overnight.
Not that Sunak isn’t a problem. His obsessive determination to get the pointless Rwanda thing through is weird. It’s like refusing to leave a house on fire until you’ve finished arranging your stamp collection.
Sunak is a symptom of the illness inside the Tory party. He exploited their cowardice and stupidity. He plotted against the two previous leaders to be rid of them and the craven cowards in the PCP supported him.
His only achievement will be passing a totally pointless Bill that results in precisely zero deportations, demostrated further what a bunch of snivelling cretins they are and just gave the public a good laugh.
And a steaming hangover the morning after the next election, as we enjoy hundreds more “portillo moments”.
Just wrote to my (safe seat) MP, who voted in favour of the Jenrick / Cash amendments to the Rwanda Bill – those amendments of course being voted down by huge margins. Told her I was gratified to see her name on the list of supporters, but puzzled by her name not being on the list of those who rebelled. Suggested the entire body politic needs an Augean Stables event. I don’t expect a reply….
A change of leader now would merely result in a Clegg Moment…
Idk how representative I am, because I see the British government as our mortal enemy and have done since the lockdowns.
Pretty hard to objectively discuss the supposed merits of people who are simultaneously trying to take away all your rights and murder your ethnic group through immigration.
But everyone I speak to – and they can’t all be mental – is disgusted with the Tories, Labour, the police, local government etc.
This isn’t a “normal” decline in popularity of a long-serving government (as in 1997). There’s no enthusiasm among non-Muslim working people for Labour. Nobody expects things to get better, or their children to live better lives than we did..
The Saxon is beginning to hate.
His obsessive determination to get the pointless Rwanda thing through is weird.
It’s not weird. Tying up the British Parliament in useless displacement activity that won’t prevent a single dinghy rapist from being wafted onto a magic carpet of lifelong benefits is one of the main reasons they had a coup to install the Indian midget.
This isn’t normal failure, it’s planned failure. If Rwanda goes to plan it’ll be “proof” – used from here until the Caliphate replaces King Charles – to “prove” that an island nation can’t possibly control its borders.
Sorry mate, if you are ever trying to understand what these people are up to, be more cynical. Britain is a shitty cheap labour, expensive energy economy run by cunts.
I think I am pretty cynical and I’ve been practicing every day. Still, there’s always room for improvement.
Obviously, none of the doctors, brain surgeons and rocket scientists, who have understandably fled the awful horrors of France, are going to be sent to Rwanda.
What I don’t get is why he seems to believe what he’s saying. He’ll be off to the US or India five minutes after the election.
I agree. Back then it was mostly the swing voters saying “someone else’s turn”, “time for a change”, and “how bad could that Blair chap be anyway?”.
This time it’s their core vote saying “never voting for those cunts ever again.”
Most seats are not marginal. I wonder if spoiled ballots will smash all records.
Maybe they want BoJo back?
Probably not though.
Martin Near The M25 – tbh, I hate having negative things to say, so my apologies for that.
We’re drowning in cynicism as it is.
Rishi is a card. He’s clever enough to understand that Rwanda is a squirrel, so his enthusiasm for it can only be explained in the same way he’s enthusiastic for Maths and smoking bans.
We, the British electorate, are at the kids table so we’re handed crackers and baubles to amuse us. Important issues are almost never discussed with any seriousness.
Take our Ukranian adventure for eggs. Whatever you think of the conflict and the parties to it, the war in Ukraine is hugely consequential. But nobody in British politics talks about it in a serious way, and there’s been no debate over whether or not Britain should spend billions of pounds on a proxy war with Russia.
Can you imagine that being the case when Mrs Thatcher (PBUH) was prime minister? I can’t. Even the Iraq war attracted more scrutiny.
Or consider the lockdowns, which were the greatest act of economic self harm in British history and caused a huge spike in mental and other illnesses. But they’re only discussed in our political sphere from the assumption that we didn’t lock down hard or fast enough.
Same with Net Zero: the most expensive law ever passed in British history, and there’s net zero serious political oversight. Nobody’s responsible for anything anymore.
Because we’re at the kids table. The adults are dining in Davos.
The one positive I’m trying to take from this is that hopefully we’ll see Reform make some sort of headway. We sorely need somebody to represent us.
BiW – if you were a marketer, you’d advise the Tories to completely ditch the brand. It’s in Prince Andrew territory now, trending towards Jimmy Savile levels of popularity.
They should call themselves I Can’t Believe They’re Not Lib Dems.
Steve’s right, it’s all irredeemably fuct. On purpose. Managed decline without the management. The useless bastards don’t work for us and they don’t care what we think. They are only concerned with gaining the approval of the Davos crowd, whose policy, ACTUAL DECLARED POLICY, is to reduce the global population to a billion or so.
And there’s very little we all can do about it, except not comply.
Btw, Simon Clarke doesn’t miss:
[Sunak] leads Keir in just 139 seats across Great Britain; he is behind in 493. His personal approval ratings have collapsed, particularly amongst the key voters we need to win back, and are now lower than Boris Johnson and even Jeremy Corbyn’s were when they resigned.
Worse than Corbo. Corbyn had a degree of authenticity regardless of how stupid his politics are. Corbs aligned himself with what Labour activists want, but Sunak is a Davos man to the core. He’s everywhere and nowhere baby, that’s where he’s at.
The Prime Minister seems to have sadly accepted novel, extreme and anti-democratic interpretations of international law that effectively tell the British people they cannot have a border.
Everything you want is illegal, everything Progressives want is compulsory.
Labour have totally failed to seal the deal with the public. It is telling that in a match up between Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak, and “Not sure”, the latter option routs the former two — ahead in 558 of Britain’s 632 seats.
Nobody likes, needs or wants Jimmy Savile’s friend as prime minister. Nobody respects or trusts Sir Keir. Labour isn’t winning, the Tories are just losing that badly.
The biggest political crisis facing developed nations is that electorates can’t get what they need and are being given what they don’t want
Bingo.
I think there needs to be ‘Plague on all their houses’ party
Labour/conservative -theres no difference they are fully signed up to the greatest act of self harm in human history and also have no intention to grasp the nettle on anything important
LibDems – not much difference to lab/con and even nuttier
Nationalist parties, fruitcakes, closet communists and single issue obsessives
If Reform gets it’s act together they could get this vote
They may win enough vote share to have an influence on post election UK
Cameron had an advantage – he wasn’t Gordon Brown.
That worked out well, considering he positioned himself as The Heir To Blair, and failed to win an outright majority.
As far as the institutions of gov.uk were concerned, it was Business As Usual, and the Conservatives ended up captured by those institutions, and their thinking, and the internal shock of Brexit didn’t cause the re-configuration required until after May. Notionally, Johnson had a majority that was possibly big enough to break free of the capture, but SARs hit.
Sunak is roughly equivalent to Major. Starmer’s no Blair though – and thus it’ll be Labour giving the Civil Service Business As Usual again.
Need some more shocks – OPEC, Nixon, Sterling, IMF, Unions – to break the trapped, closed-cycle thinking. They’re on the horizon, not quite here yet.
So, Starmer might achieve a majority equivalent to Johnson, but well off Blair or Thatcher. If the shocks arrive, his Ministry might be quite short, but otherwise likely to mirror Heath.
The Conservatives might then end up replicating Wilson.
Just a question for peeps more versed in the UK situation: Does Reform have candidates in every constituency?
Because it looks to me this is one of those rare cases where both major parties have disgusted people to such an extent that a third party, like Reform, could actually make headway.
Or at least get enough seats to scare the living bajeezus out of the Establishment into Remembering to Behave.
Simply on the voter principle of “compared to the usual two cvnts, at least this party has the lesser cvnt”.
The problem with Reform is the inexperience & closet nuttiness in parts, just like UKIP, plus I’m not sure how well they could cover all the constituencies. It might have more influence if some of the more clued-up people from Con and Lab defected. That’s unlikely now but may work closer to the election. I suspect I’ll be writing ‘None of the above’ on my ballot paper though.
Reform claim they will stand in all constituencies
Not sure how rigorous their candidate selection process is, but the so-called major parties seem to select kiddie fiddlers, sexual deviants, tax evaders and plagiarists as well as a good selection of nut-jobs so I cannot see them being any worse
As most haven’t been groomed since PPE and public sector wonk jobs they might actually be more interesting anyway
I think the guiding principle will be “what will poss off the establishment most?”. Worked for Brexit (sort of)
I know a few of the nuts and bolts people – ex-Ukip, followed Nigel basically. The aim is every constituency. There will be all sorts of sacrificial lambs in no win seats. But the next comment is right, there will be a lot of not really quite up to MP standard (given the current lot that looks like an insane thing to say but I recall some of the Ukip ones) candidates. Detailed examination of all candidates will not aid Reform. A Great National Upchuck will. And that, in the current thinking, depends upon Nigel.
I’ve been thinking about it myself. And I currently think that I’m simply not rich enough to take 6 months out to really fight a constituency. Really fighting one means moving to it right now and sure, OK, do 30 hours a week of paid work. Plus 50 hours a week campaigning. I also think I’m not ambitious enough to do that.
What I would be prepared to do is 60 days – say, – of intensive work right before an election. But we do not, in fact, know when that’s going to be.
Just imagine the fun though!
Go on, stand in Ely….I dare you!!!
I expect we would crowdfund you!
Size of polls aside, I used to think it felt more like ‘92 than ‘97, everyone really fed up with Tories but not inspired by Labour, although not quite repulsed by them as later elections after Blair. .
Now I’m beginning to think it’s more like ‘74. Grey uninspiring, insipid, politicians arguing who is best placed to manage the inevitable decline and arguing over trivia.
If I did it would be Bath. Home town etc.
This says it better:
“ This right here is the face of the enemy. Softly spoken middle class condescension. Sheltered, oblivious, identikit clone with drearily predictable views on immigration, Brexit, climate and energy, without a glimmer of independent thought – (obedient enough to make it through the selection process) – and will turn out to be woefully under-informed, incurious and thick – and only capable of representing people who look, think and sound exactly like her. And the worst part, if it weren’t for the party branding, I couldn’t even tell you what party she belongs to. Britain cannot arrest the decline if this is the best its politics can dredge up. You may as well bin your vote for all the value it has now.”
In response to:
“ I’m standing to be your MP in #SouthDerbyshire.
Only Labour has a plan to #GiveBritainItsFutureBack
We will:
✅ Get the NHS back on its feet
✅ Switch on Great British Energy
✅ Get Britain building again
✅ Take back our streets
✅ Break down barriers to opportunity”
And it will come as no surprise she doesn’t know what a woman is.
https://x.com/petenorth303/status/1750069235152195978?s=61&t=VX5cJ0-osgn_JSz7j-uowQ
Just in case anyone might be impression that the writer of the article under discussion could be from the sensible wing of the Tory Party, I quote from Wiki:
On 12 June 2019 the UK Government amended the Climate Change Act 2008 by introducing a target for a 100% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (compared to 1990 levels) in the UK by 2050.[14] At the forefront of this change in policy was Clarke, who, in September 2018, organised a letter signed by more than 130 cross-party MPs which indicated their support for net zero emissions and stressed opportunities for UK businesses, including in the North East.
Deep anal reaming with a cricket bat wrapped in barbed wire followed by immersion in boiling oil would be far too kind to him.
BiND;
“ I’m standing to be your MP in #SouthDerbyshire.
Only Labour has a plan to #GiveBritainItsFutureBack
We will:
✅ Get the NHS back on its feet
✅ Switch on Great British Energy
✅ Get Britain building again
✅ Take back our streets
✅ Break down barriers to opportunity”
Shades of “I’m Backing Britain”? Think there was a Carry On ended with that slogan.
Ducky,
The Carry On films at least provided a bit of light relief and didn’t try to insult our intelligence, these people are pathetic.
The next GE won’t be about spoilt ballots or who’s won, it will be about the appalling turnout.
So very glad I left the UK many years ago. I thank God.
Martin Near the M25;
” His obsessive determination to get the pointless Rwanda thing through is weird.”
Not really. The alternatives that have been already tried, barges, mothballed barracks, disused prisons and whatnot, have run into serious opposition, local councils, local voters protesting, planning permissions, etc, etc.
There’s a set of costs there, including opportunity, so go where those costs don’t exist, or can be minimized , or out of sight, out of mind – hence Rwanda.
@Tim – much as I would love to vote for you, the first rule I would change would be that you can only stand for election in a constituency if you actually lived in the constituency on the day of the previous General Election.
I get royally fucked off with Labour / Tory High Command parachuting in another flunkey / bag-carrier / member of the blob to take over any safe seat that comes up, or serial wannabe candidates who turn up at selection meetings carrying a card to remind them where they are.
I know this would stop Nigel appearing as a candidate in any suitable by-election, but anything that deprives the corrupt Party officials of control is A Good Thing.