As both Germany and Poland have found out over the centuries:
As Putin and Trump threaten from east and west, Europe must stand up for itself
Timothy Garton Ash
If you’re threatened on both sides then you’ve got to be able to fight a two front war. Which nobody ever does actually manage. You’ve got to ally with one so as to be able to confront the other.
Knowing the EU they’d pick Russia of course. Can’t be having with those Americans, right?
That was an easy one.
Putin + Trump = Guardian.
I’d have mentioned the use of “threaten” but as all guardianistas know Trump is synonymous with threatening
I’m sure if St Barack of Obama could return they’d be quite happy teaming up with the USA again, no matter that he really wasn’t interested in Europe.
All they need to do is tell Trump he was right about NATO spending and Germany’s deluded energy policy, shouldn’t be hard because he was right, and let him brag for a well and he’ll come round to supporting Europe and staying in NATO.
Trump was never a threat to NATO, that was Merkel and the rest. Trump’s demands were:
– Don’t make yourself energy dependent on Putin, one because he’s a threat, and two because you’re showering him with money
– Increase defense spending to what you’ve promised. If you can’t be bothered to defend Europe, why should the USA? (From this comes the assertion that Trump would leave NATO).
He was right, but TDS means always taking the opposite position. There is no chance that he’ll get an apology.
Picking Russia would have made more sense, since they had lots of lovely cheap energy to sell Europe, before the American government decided to bomb Germany’s strategic pipelines and destroy their economy.
The old formula was that any power trying to dominate Europe was natural enemies of both Britain and Russia. But the EU has flipped that script, they’re not in trouble because of their strength but because of their weakness.
American and Chinese firms are hoovering up Germany’s former manufacturing industry as we speak. Germany will be left with Net Zero of the wealth or machine tools and all of the Turks. Oh dear.
The danger was never from the Russian Army or Trump (lol, these fucking people). The danger was that Europe and the UK would become somebody’s geopolitical bitch, which they have and are. Not through an insufficiency of warspunking, but because our lack of sovereignty and democracy makes us prey for Klaus Schwab, all of Klaus Schwab’s rich pals, and the same monied interests who are crashing America’s society with no survivors.
Unless people want their last moments on this Earth to be a foreign nurse gleefully turning off your life support machine, Westerners better wake up and smell the ashes. Anybody who wants to prep our children to die in some shitty trench fighting Ivan is our enemy.
Nato depends on the credibility of the article 5 guarantee from the US.
That’s why NATO is fucked. The Soviets had every reason to fear atomic retaliation if they invaded West Germany, but nobody now believes NATO is going to fight atomic war to defend North Macedonia.
In a market economy, arms manufacturers need large, definite orders before they ramp up production, and Europe’s defence industry is not getting enough of those, fast enough
You can have a productive armaments industry, or Net Zero, but it’s physically impossible to have both. Imagine if we tried to power WW2 munitions factories by windmill.
But also imagine if we tried to fight WW2 while allowing millions of hostile foreigners to colonise our country.
That’s why we won’t fight.
There, FIFY 🙂
“The old formula was that any power trying to dominate Europe was natural enemies of both Britain …”
Often said but balls as far as I can see. What did Britain do about Bismarck’s Germany? Fuck all.
Britain’s usual objection was to a powerful country taking over the Channel ports. Or, in Kaiser Bill’s case, his insane policy of building a large fleet with the express purpose of fighting and sinking the RN in the North Sea.
East and West? Neither one is a problem. It’s the South, stupid. And the folks from the south who already live in Europe.
Rule three again. It’s the one you don’t see that gets you.
Dearieme
Britain was fine with Bismarck. He balanced out the threat from France. It was after Willy dumped him and decided to confront us directly, that things went South.
Dm – Often said but balls as far as I can see. What did Britain do about Bismarck’s Germany? Fuck all.
I think it (the unification of Germany and their victory of 1871) led to the Entente Cordial (lime flavoured), and ultimately WW1. Not very quickly, for sure, but less than 45 years between major European wars sounds about right.
Rhoda – Yes, several million people called Mohammed have their own ideas about how things should go, and Western governments are bending over backwards to swell their numbers and influence.
Not sure why, because Mohammed is a mortal enemy of the Clown World modus vivendi so beloved by Davos man, but hubris wasn’t invented yesterday either. It’s not just 18th century French aristocrats who end up on the scaffold.
Britain was fine with Bismarck. He balanced out the threat from France. It was after Willy dumped him and decided to confront us directly, that things went South.
Indeed, it was Willy that wanted the big Navy and the only way to Bismark could get will to accept unification was if he could have an empire. Even then it still took the Ems telegram and bribing Ludwig ll.
. . . but less than 45 years between major European wars sounds about right.
No thanks, much prefer the 79 years and indefinitely upwards. We’ll soon return to the old frequency of war if we abandon the practices that have deterred war.
In order to have peace we should prepare for war is as apt now as when Roman general Vegetius is said to have said it.
Or we could go with what Hadrian is supposed have said: “peace through strength or, failing that, peace through threat.”
Whichever way, its about time we started taking people like Putin, Xi, Hamas et al at their word and not what we’d like them to have meant or what some self appointed expert tells us what they think is meant. If Putin says its the Balts next then that is his plan, not aspiration or wish list but his intention.
He told us what he was going to do about Ukraine at the Munich security conference but nobody took him at his word, 7 years later he took out Crimea and then another 7 years to try to take out the rest of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/RaHaake/status/1754166535843697065
“The #Kriegsverbrecher with plain text:
Next up are the Balts.”
PJF – observations are not endorsements, natch
BiND – Whichever way, its about time we started taking people like Putin, Xi, Hamas et al at their word and not what we’d like them to have meant or what some self appointed expert tells us what they think is meant.
We should. Have you seen the amount of criticism Tucker Carlson is getting from the media for doing journalism? Mental.
If Putin says its the Balts next then that is his plan, not aspiration or wish list but his intention.
Sounds like the Balts better start practicing their Russian. Good luck to them with that, and I hope Rory Stewart goes to help.
It’s just unfortunate that Germany has already been invaded and conquered by Muslims. The GDR was an improvement over the future they face.
@BiND
Medvedev was seen as a Blair-style “reformer” and now his Telegram channel is full of explicit threats questioning the very existence of Poland and Finland. Not proper countries, given they only escaped the Russian Empire due to tragic mistakes by the Bolsheviks in 1917 and the wars that followed. You can’t take his word as policy anymore, since he’s out of office, but he isn’t getting shut down for his rantings either. They’re the kind of semi-official threat the Kremlin couldn’t mouth directly. But the explicit stuff Putin does come out with should be worrying enough, indeed. For other supposedly arms-length actors it’s worth looking at one of Putin’s GONGOs that “campaigns” on Central and Eastern European political matters, Mir Bez Natsizma. They’re particularly active in Finland and the Baltic, but they pop up elsewhere as well. Hillary Clinton sent them a letter of support once, which makes me smile when Americans lecture me on what a great stateswoman she was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Without_Nazism
Anon,
The Chinese are at it now, in a similar way:
On January 29, 2024, Chinese social media influencer “Media Person Zhou Zheng” posted on his Haokan Video account a video titled “Never Believe What the Jews Say.” In the video, Zhou said that people only hear about the death of six million Jews during the Holocaust, but not about how the “filthy rich Jews” had previously been “homeless” and had been accepted by “kind” Germany before they betrayed the German people by seizing control of the economy.
H/T Mick Hartley: https://mickhartley.typepad.com/blog/2024/02/kind-germany.html
Those sort of people don’t make statements like that without at least tacit CCP support. There’s a lot of stirring up going on around the world, in no small part taking advantage of the USA’s weakness and to distract them further.
Anon – Medvedev was seen as a Blair-style “reformer” and now his Telegram channel is full of explicit threats questioning the very existence of Poland and Finland.
Yarp. Same with the sanctions, which completely backfired and made the Russian population back Putin even more. There’s not very many liberals in Moscow anymore.
Are the governments of Poland and Finland doing things that are friendly to Russia, neutral to Russia, or…?
Because Russian politicians do seem to get quite angry when foreign countries talk smack about Russia, treat Russian ethnics poorly, and arm Russia’s enemies. Vlad is weird that way.
I think the lessons they’re hoping to teach are: Russia is back, and NATO can’t protect you.
BiND – There’s a lot of stirring up going on around the world, in no small part taking advantage of the USA’s weakness and to distract them further.
No, they’re deliberately trying to bleed the American Empire (plus allies) to death with a thousand small cuts.
Iran, China and Russia are behind the excitement with the Houthis, and a lot of the other emerging flashpoints. It’s a strategy rather than a sequence of unfortunate events.
NB we are currently losing our war with the Houthis. Exciting times.
@BiND
If you’re in the mood for it, try reading the People’s Daily and the more brazen Global TImes, or following Chinese spokespeople or embassy twitter accounts (from which platform, banned at home, they regularly lambast the West for our limited freedom of speech…) and it’s obvious how much pot-stirring is going on. Often verging on conspiracy theory – the Global Times is headlining a story in which it seriously suggests that Messi not playing in a friendly match played in Hong Kong was part of a Western plot to sabotage the HK economy. The People’s Daily has a banner at the top atm showing “XI JINPING: I will fully commit to the people and never fail them” and some angry editorials about the USA’s attempts to prevent Chinese “security cooperation” with PNG. Also lots of very impressive stuff about improvements in China’s economy, rural poverty, tech scene, infrastructure, and so on. But they make it very clear the Chinese government has no intention of building an open, liberal, pluralistic sort of country and that nobody should think they’re our friend.
You can even catch them sometimes openly admitting the Uighur genocide, usually when they’re trying to praise what a good thing it has been. While at other times denying it is happening. Boggles my mind that Muslim countries don’t seem to get worked up about it at all – I know their governments are bought with Chinese gold, but you might think the general populace would get worked up about it. There’s obvious reasons Muslims worldwide rally around the Palestinians, but the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar is a Big Deal in several Muslim countries far from the region. Xinjiang? Crickets. But I imagine that’s partly a sign of just how well China is playing the PR game. I hear much more anger from Muslims from all kinds of random countries directed against the collective West because they’ve just heard how France bans the hijab in schools (which is the kind of laïcité they’ve been pursuing since 1905 and has roots in the French Revolution). So someone out there knows exactly what media buttons to press.
@Steve
For all the ups and downs in our relationship, UK government officials don’t routinely bang on about reannexing Ireland. Does our diplomacy a world of good. As does the fact we haven’t even tried invading and reannexing Ireland. If the Russian government officials are surprised at the way countries in the ex-Soviet space and former Russian Empire behave around it, they might want to take a look in the mirror.
It doesn’t even economically make sense for those countries to genuflect. Yeah, a few more decades of cheap energy and all that. But in terms of trade they’re far more plugged in to European supply chains now, or even trans-Atlantic or Asian ones. One of the things that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was the fact even their economy, which had historically been locked to the Russian one, was shifting towards Europe. If Russia had become an economic powerhouse then it would have had far more influence in the region without having to resort to such explicit threats. So again, mirror-looking time.
– I think the lessons they’re hoping to teach are: Russia is back, and NATO can’t protect you.
The lesson they’ve actually taught is although their aspirations are real, there is a big gap between their aspirations and their capabilities. So Finland and Sweden jumped into NATO as fast as they could, and Poland is building a proper modern NATO army that will be the biggest in Europe.
Russia can only win in Ukraine if the West abandons Ukraine. Sadly, it seems we’ll do our best to*.
*To be fair, we’ve lasted a lot longer than I thought we would.
Anon – For all the ups and downs in our relationship, UK government officials don’t routinely bang on about reannexing Ireland. Does our diplomacy a world of good. As does the fact we haven’t even tried invading and reannexing Ireland.
Sure. I hate to keep bringing this up, but Great Britain and Ireland are ruled by people who don’t believe in countries and are actively replacing their native populations as fast as humanly possible. The British government doesn’t even mind when France dumps acid-throwing monsters on our shores.
Consider the possibility that it’s nationalist Russia and China who are more normal than we are, and their behaviors are more easily explained.
One of the things that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was the fact even their economy, which had historically been locked to the Russian one, was shifting towards Europe. If Russia had become an economic powerhouse then it would have had far more influence in the region without having to resort to such explicit threats. So again, mirror-looking time.
That’s not really what happened. Let me give you the high level version (someone will be around to deny it shortly):
Ukraine has been a geopolitical chew toy for a long time. (“without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire” – Brzezinski)
In 2014, the president of Ukraine tried to back out of a loan deal with the EU, in favour of a better deal with Russia. This prompted protests in Kiev.
In response, the CIA activated its neo nazi allies in Ukraine (whom they’ve been working with since WW2) to inject political violence into the mix, and hired some Georgian snipers to fire into the protestors. This is how colour revolutions are made.
Victoria Nuland then chose the next government of Ukraine, which has been arming and preparing for war with Russia ever since.
Russia’s goal is to dominate its neighbourhood so that Russia Strong and no colour revolution comes to Moscow. NATO’s goal is to use Ukraine to destabilise and break up Russia, so that Bill Browder and all the other creepy crawlies can go back to hoovering vast sums of money out of a humiliated and beaten Russia.
Don’t forget 10% for the Big Guy, only the bloody Russians had to go and spoil everything by being more successful at war than Ukraine.
PJF –
The lesson they’ve actually taught is although their aspirations are real, there is a big gap between their aspirations and their capabilities.
Yes, of course. The Russian armed forces are a wan shadow of the Red Army. It’s also inconceivable that a country with a declining population could conquer Europe.
But consider also how cruelly this war has exposed the limitations of Western power. The sanctions alone were supposed to bring Russia to its knees – I know we’re supposed to pretend now that wasn’t the plan. The rest of the world is much less fearful of the United States now than it was in 2021.
So Finland and Sweden jumped into NATO as fast as they could, and Poland is building a proper modern NATO army that will be the biggest in Europe.
I think in Finland and Sweden’s case, it’s like seeing a man boast about coming seventh in a “hammer your own dick” contest. They could have stayed serenely aloof from the war with Russia, but they chose dick hammering time instead.
Poland is a bizarre country. On one hand, they’ve been trying to exorcise their historical demons with a very aggressive form of Polish nationalism. A lot of it is performatively aimed at impressing American neocons, but quite a lot of Polish politicians do seem to legitimately want WW3, and presumably think they can win somehow.
On t’other, the EU just took back control of their government, so the refugees and LGBTQ for primary schools are already in the post.
They’d better get their patriotism on while it’s still legal. But of course, that raises the question of what it is they’re supposed to fight for (other than Bill Browder’s bank balance, I mean). “For Bum Sex and Somalis!” doesn’t quite have the same ring to it that “God, Honour and Fatherland” do.
– The sanctions alone were supposed to bring Russia to its knees – I know we’re supposed to pretend now that wasn’t the plan.
Lol, you had to add that last because you know someone would mention that you know the former just isn’t true.
The sanctions were never designed to bring Russia to its knees, alone or otherwise. They have been very partial and selective; much more an attempt to bring Russia to its senses. The recent Ukrainian drone attack on the oil facility near St Petersburg illuminated more than the night sky – one of the tankers that had to hightail it out of port was destined for – the Netherlands (the chief supplier of F16s for Ukraine). The notion of punitive sanctions is a joke.
Also utter toss: you’re summary of events leading to Russia’s attack (apart from the Brzezinski quote where you should have stopped).
– They could have stayed serenely aloof from the war with Russia . . .
Sweden at a stretch, but Finland is already on Russia’s list. They wisely do not share your delusions about the situation.
Russia is quite effectively chewing through Ukraine Armed Forces.
Sure it is costing them, but they’ve upped production and are replacing losses and expenditure.
Before we all go patting ourselves on our back about how poorly the Russians are performing at war, let’s not forget that not that long ago the most powerful military in NATO got shoved unceremoniously out of Afghanistan by people in technicals armed with AKs
PJF – The sanctions were never designed to bring Russia to its knees, alone or otherwise. They have been very partial and selective; much more an attempt to bring Russia to its senses.
Kicking a country out of the global banking system is “partial and selective”, eh? Stealing property from people because they happened to have Russian citizenship too?
I reckon the sanctions were the original Counteroffensive, and planned years in advance (at least since 2014). The sanctions were so extreme, they were clearly intended to cripple the Russian economy in much the same way Saddam’s Iraq was crippled post-Gulf.
I.e. Russia should be at the “bartering oil for food” stage by now, rendered helpless before the awesome power of Western bankers. I believe they saw the ground war in Ukraine as a secondary front, on the financial one our masters hoped to quickly force regime change on Russia (hence targeting the oligarchs).
You’re right that Europe is still buying some Russian oil (and Ukraine is still taking Russian money in exchange for exporting Russian gas through their country, which they claim Russia is actively genociding). That’s in spite of the sanctions, and because – despite what retards would have had us believe – you can’t just stop oil.
Also utter toss: you’re summary of events leading to Russia’s attack (apart from the Brzezinski quote where you should have stopped).
You know those people in power who are actively working to extirpate your ethnic group, turn you into a miserable eco-pauper, and throw you in prison if you tell a joke about trannies?
Yeah them.
I reckon they’re also lying to you about Ukraine.
“ Before we all go patting ourselves on our back about how poorly the Russians are performing at war, let’s not forget that not that long ago the most powerful military in NATO got shoved unceremoniously out of Afghanistan by people in technicals armed with AKs”
No they didn’t. The situation was stabilising and the USA wasn’t losing soldiers and the costs were small in terms of budget (same for Ukr). Even Trump had been convinced that it was in the USA’s interest to stay. Have a listen to or read HR McMaster, he was in the room with Trump.
It was an inept political decision.
Oh fuck off about Ukrainian neo-Nazis, Steve. It’s straight Putin propaganda based on some Ukrainians during WW2 doing deals with the Germans on the enemy-of-my-enemy-can-be-my-friend basis. (As Finland did). And not without reason. Ukraine was treated dreadfully by Moscow, pre-war. They may be nationalists but they’re not Nazis. A Slav-Ukrainian ubermench doesn’t really chime with hating the guts of the Slav-Russians, does it? If some Ukrainians now are looking back at those times with affection, is it surprising? They’ve really never left them.
The Nazis went mythic years ago. If anyone can be accused of being a Nazi to score a political point, don’t be surprised if people claim to be Nazis for the same reason. Mythic doesn’t make real.
What?
Ukraine is still taking Russian money in exchange for exporting Russian gas through their country
So – if I’ve got this right – Russia is still exporting gas to western Europe, through a country it is for all intents and purposes at war with (is that a reasonable description of the conflict given the significant numbers (whatever they are actually) dead on both sides?).
I now have this mental image of them both carefully shooting around pipes hoping they don’t get damaged – as they try to kill each other… Why do I continually get the feeling that there is more to this than the MSM is trying to lead me to believe?
– Kicking a country out of the global banking system is “partial and selective”, eh?
But that’s not what happened. Initially seven Russian banks were excluded from SWIFT, and not even the biggest bank. A few months later three more were added, including that biggest. There are 396 banks in Russia and 386 of them can still have a SWIFT code. One of the biggest, Gazprombank, can still access SWIFT. Exclusion from SWIFT is not removal from the “global banking system”. The sanctioned banks can still operate, just not as easily; they are still solvent.
– Stealing property from people because they happened to have Russian citizenship too?
Again, not what happened. Certain individuals with connections to the Russian and Belarus governments or with activities related to Ukraine have had their Western held assets frozen (not taken).
– The sanctions were so extreme, they were clearly intended to cripple the Russian economy . . .
They weren’t extreme. They weren’t even particularly effective, which is why they’ve had to be gradually ratcheted up over the months.
– I.e. Russia should be at the “bartering oil for food” stage by now, rendered helpless before the awesome power of Western bankers.
Except they’re not, are they? Should you wish, you can still buy Kaspersky internet security software for your computer on Amazon (go on, show your solidarity). Contrary to your outraged and ignorant protestations the sanctions on Russia have indeed been partial and selective, specifically designed to cause focussed damage rather than catastrophic failure.
Facts don’t care about your feelings.
– So – if I’ve got this right – Russia is still exporting gas to western Europe, through a country it is for all intents and purposes at war with . . .
Mostly eastern Europe, but otherwise correct (this has been discussed here several times over the months).
Ukraine gets a big chunk of much needed money for this, plus placating its neighbours (e.g. Hungary is over 80% reliant on Russian energy, though not all via this pipeline). Obviously Russia gets money, too. Contracts are honoured (due to end this year, unlikely to be renewed). That “for all intents and purposes” goes a long way when converging “interests” are involved. Note that all this happens above board in the full knowledge of all governments.
– Why do I continually get the feeling that there is more to this than the MSM is trying to lead me to believe?
You really don’t get much meaningful out of the MSM on anything at any time. Some people have even been persuaded that there is an extreme sanctions regime on Russia.
@Steve
“That’s not really what happened”
Even if you believe all that stuff about Nuland having Neo-Nazis on a string, it still absolutely goes back to my point about the economic context. That’s why all that stuff came to a head in 2014, not the late nineties when Ukraine was still economically locked to Russia. The 2000s brought a radical economic transformation to Ukraine, absolutely momentous, though a lot of people weren’t paying attention to it. A massive decoupling from Russia, and integration with European and global markets, was taking place: about a decade after similar changes in other Ex Eastern Bloc countries.
Yes Ukraine was dependent on Russian energy. Yes Ukraine’s elite, especially the oligarchs, were very tied up with Russia. And yes the cultural elite – actors, singers and so on – were hopping back and forth across the border because the common linguistic sphere meant Russia was their big market, But the regular bulk of the exporting economy had largely switched to other markets. Ukrainian migrant workers were preferring Poland to Russia. That’s why Ukraine was reaching out for better market access to the EU, even many of their oligarchs were seeing that is the way the wind was blowing and actively campaigning for it, and it’s also why Putin was ramping up the pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Russia’s alternative common market for its proxies and allies. Economic reality meant Russia was already losing their grasp on Ukraine. They didn’t have a good counter-offer, other than buying off the elite, trying get them to erect a customs barrier to decouple Ukraine from the West again, and offering threats if Ukraine didn’t comply.
And that’s why I’m saying Russia would have found it easier to hold on to states that had fallen into its orbit if it had had a stronger economy – Ukraine had drifted westwards because that’s where the money was, even in those periods where the Ukrainian leadership was pro-Russian. To stop that happening when you have so little to offer in trade terms means you really need to lock your ally down, like Russia has done to Belarus.
As for the fuss about food, I do remember Putin bragging that Russia was now exporting grain. Instead of buying it as the USSR did.
Those capitalist reforms, no matter how partial, did work.