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Now, once wages have caught up this inflationary episode will be over, having passed quite quickly, as almost all such periods in the UK have always done without requiring intervention from anyone to make that happen.

Inflation arrives, goes away again and it’s all entirely out of our hands.

No one has ever reformed the supply side. No one has ever applied fiscal policy to either juice or reduce demand. And absolutely no one at all has ever changed interest rates.

Because The Spud has spoken, inflation just naturally goes away.

12 thoughts on “Ho Yus”

  1. The post is even more demented than usual.

    In other words, as I always said would happen, inflation continues to fall quite rapidly. That was inevitable: the way in which inflation is measured guaranteed it. Now, once wages have caught up this inflationary episode will be over, having passed quite quickly, as almost all such periods in the UK have always done without requiring intervention from anyone to make that happen.

    It’s as though the 1970s and 1980s never happened – not sure his potential employers in either Labour or the SNP would say that the Conservatives ‘did nothing’ to reduce inflation in that decade.

    There is, however, one consequence of this inflation that does remain, and that is high interest rates.

    Aren’t interest rates still below longer term norms? Doers this guy understand anything about anything?

  2. “passed quite quickly, as almost all such periods in the UK have always done”
    ___________
    “Almost” …
    Now explain the ones which didn’t.

  3. You’d think that a man with his superhuman talents might do something useful, like parting the Mediterranean, waddling across to Gaza and dispensing loaves and fishes to the starving, rather than preening himself on a risible blog.

  4. Be fair, his explanation is no less convincing than the govt claim that it’s due to Rishi and Jeremy’s cunning plan.

  5. What happens if wages don’t catch up?

    We’re in a low productivity economy that is being strangled by increasingly onerous regulation.
    Cheap energy is off the table due to the insanity of Net Zero and the Climate Change Act.
    Importing itinerant goat herders from Backwardistan hasn’t increased the tax take from from high earners such as doctor and engineers.
    Most of the population are net beneficiaries of state handouts and want more of it not less.
    Large numbers of net tax contributors in their 50s have fucked off the whole work thing as a waste of time.

    Most likely outcome is not that the inflation goes away but that it becomes embedded and we get poorer over time.

  6. The data at least fits an earlier Tre Professori theory, long abandoned. That you print money which government spends, to support furlough, energy costs, the welfare uptick. Then when inflation shows up you increase taxes to their highest post war level to tax it back.
    I asked a question about why the volte face on the solution to inflation, but it didn’t make it through moderation.

  7. @Van_Patten

    “The post is even more demented than usual.

    “In other words, as I always said would happen, inflation continues to fall quite rapidly. That was inevitable: the way in which inflation is measured guaranteed it. …”

    It’s as though the 1970s and 1980s never happened”

    Indeed, stuck for something to do a while back I worked out that the AVERAGE rate of inflation between 1969 and 1994 was 8%. That’s a quarter of a century and well over half a working person’s career.

    There was just one year during that period when it dropped below 6%.

    “as I always said would happen” – he spent the whole of 2021 telling us inflation was not a risk.

  8. Martin Near The M25

    “as I always said would happen”

    Does anyone doubt the word of the Oracle of Ely? Did the Nostradamus of the Fens predict this? I suppose he has an advantage that nobody except the steadfast VP is going to waste time reading through all the gibberish to call him on it.

  9. “Martin Near The M25

    “as I always said would happen”

    Does anyone doubt the word of the Oracle of Ely? Did the Nostradamus of the Fens predict this?”

    Spud makes hundreds of predictions, at times contradicting each other. Or predictions along the lines of

    “there won’t be inflation unless the Fascist Tories make it happen and even if it happens it will be low unless capitalist rentiers push it high but it will be short lived unless action by the Neoliberal Bank of England make it last a long time”

    No matter what happens, it will be as he predicted.

  10. Indeed, stuck for something to do a while back I worked out that the AVERAGE rate of inflation between 1969 and 1994 was 8%. That’s a quarter of a century and well over half a working person’s career.

    Actuarial rule of thumb – annual inflation (or any other geometric increase) of x% means a doubling every 72/x years (if x is reasonably small, less than 20%, say). So over 25 years prices will have increased 8x. And 64x over 50 years (which works out about right, since my first pint, a little over 50 years ago, was 1/11 – just under 10p).

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