Now, this is all expressed preferences, not revealed, so take it with a pinch of salt:
Grammar schools are braced for an influx of private school pupils as parents scramble to avoid Labour’s tax raid that could result in higher fees.
Private schools are expecting an exodus of pupils as a result of the party’s proposed VAT raid, which would impose a 20 per cent tax on fees.
Tutoring groups have told The Telegraph that they have seen a surge in parents seeking help for children taking 11-plus exams since Labour announced its plans last year.
But if many are preparing to put kids back into the state – but selective – sector then that means that the elasticity with repect to price of school fees is high. And therefore that the imposition of VAT could be a net money loser for the government.
This is just the way economics works, it has to add up. If this happens here then this other thing here is definitionally true.
As I say, this is expressed preferences. But that in itself poses a problem for the usual lefties. Because for them to say that people won;t really do that, it’s just folk sayin’ stuff, puts the kibosh on their more general claim that voting – people sayin’ – is the way we should run the economy.
Then again, I don’t believe the polling either. Certainly not for Sir Kneels-a-lot and Rachael Reeves. Their promises so far have been more stuff we’ve already said we don’t want and since the numbers don’t add up MOAR TAX! too.
Personally, I think this is something like the opposite of the “Shy Tory” phenomena, perhaps the “Irate Tory”, that they cry out “Not voting for those bar stewards again. I’m voting Labour!”.
When all’s said and done, I suspect a lot of them will stay at home, vote Tory with a closepeg on their nose or vote Reform.
Sure, the net result may still be a Labour government, but it won’t be the 400 seat majority that the polling suggests.
As for sneering Jeremy Cnut and his promises of “yet another fiscal event” before the election, if the Chancellor hasn’t been able to buy off the voters thus far with his weak-as-piss bullshit, it’s unlikely that he’ll pull a rabbit out of the hat at the 11th hour.
Tim, you make the mistake in thinking that this is about raising money.
It is ideological hatred from socialists. It is a perfect way to start weeding out the schools, until the only people who can afford to send them are… Socialist Politicians .
Categorise it along with fox hunting and scrapping HMY Britannia. The Grammars will follow soon after.
My kids went to school in Cheltenham where there are several private secondary schools (the College, the Ladies College, and Dean Close) and one state grammar school, Pate’s.
Pate’s is a very good school, which regularly matches or even outperforms the private schools, and routinely sends kids to Oxford and Cambridge.
I don’t know but I would guess that half of the kids there are children of parents who could send their progeny to Cheltenham College but are thinking (and I don’t blame them), ‘Why am I paying £45k pa to send my kids to school when I could send them to Pate’s?’
But of course it’s already highly oversubscribed – it takes the cream of the 11+ entrance in Gloucestershire (where we have a bunch of other also very good grammars I believe) – and having seen the site there is no way on earth that it would be able to accommodate anything more than a few extra pupils without major works.
BTW Cheltenham is alerting parents to the issue (as though they didn’t already know)
https://cheltenham-college.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/25110153/Bursars-Letter-2024.pdf
And how long do we expect grammar schools to last, especially if this does happen?
It’s only a matter of time for them if Labour does get its large majority for the same reason Otto gives. See also what’s left of hunting.
As i think dearieme said the tax is only the excuse. And as i said those on the margins of the private sector affordability are still going to spend it on furthering their kids education. But if it is high elasticity and they do have other more pressing uses for the foregone tax, I wonder what the u – turn looks like. Means tested tax breaks on the parents? Special rate of VAT? or no U turn Head down plough on.
I’m not sure that the price elasticity of demand is the critical factor. For a great many private primary (prep) schools just a small (because price elasticity is inelastic) decrease in their roll may result in closure because they only break even at, say, 95% capacity. Lose 6 pupils and 94 others are left looking for alternative places not all of which can be provided by other private schools in the area.
The tories could give everyone a million quid each at the next budget, and they’d still lose the election.
Of course, the usual Socialist irony lurks in history. The original wrecker of the education system went to Fettes and the heir to the wrecker went to Reigate Grammar. And that visceral hater of private education, Dianne Abbott only sent her son to public school because she was a loving, caring black woman…
@john Galt
I agree with you concerning the current polling
Lots of people are fed up with the Tories and are no doubt saying so
I detect no swell of support for Starmer such as in the days before the Blair landslide
I think people really want an alternative to the three major parties, especially on issues like immigration and NetZero where there is essentially no difference between any of them
My prediction is Tories will do badly, but not as badly as the polling suggests
Labour will not do as well as predicted, probably by a significant margin
They will be hurt by rebels(Galloway), Reform and their stance (do they even have one?) on NetZero and immigration with Gaza a factor, wonder where the postal votes will go?
Reform will do better than expected, maybe 2 or 3 seats
Result, minority Tory government held in power by the unionists who will exact heavy Danegeld
This policy will backfire, in fact its so obvious I don’t think it will ever occur
Large numbers of middle-class children will transfer to oversubscribed schools
Private schools will increase prices and withdraw scholarships and assistance to local schools(clubs, sporting facilities ,swimming pools etc) to the detriment of local kids, finger will be point at Labour
The smaller schools will seek students from abroad to fill the gap
Labour activists will continue to send their kids to public schools
JG – As for sneering Jeremy Cnut and his promises of “yet another fiscal event” before the election, if the Chancellor hasn’t been able to buy off the voters thus far with his weak-as-piss bullshit, it’s unlikely that he’ll pull a rabbit out of the hat at the 11th hour
I just assume he’s trolling us. Jeremy Hunt knows what people like you want, that’s why there’s always a little snigger in his mouth when he announces another massive tax grab or a monument to Muslims.
The Boris/Liz coup was about making sure you’re not allowed to vote for an alternative to Blairism. They’re deliberately trying to collapse the Tory vote, because after 14 years of the Long Con it’s time to stop pretending.
“Dianne Abbott only sent her son to public school because she was a loving, caring black woman”
And he still turned out to be a drug dealer
Result, minority Tory government held in power by the unionists who will exact heavy Danegeld
Hmm… I agree with much of what you wrote, but I suspect a Labour government without the predicted landslide is more likely.
Although, will any of us notice the difference between those 2 results?
I see no relief for the nation until the Tories are destroyed or at least violently remodelled. With the likes of Gove and Jeremy Cunt on board the latter will not happen. Mind you, Conservative members are apparently so demented they think Mordaunt ought to be the next leader, so maybe it’s a salt the earth job.
Therefore, Tories delenda est!
Let’s make that happen.
Vote Reform!
“Sure, the net result may still be a Labour government, but it won’t be the 400 seat majority that the polling suggests.”
Oh I don’t know. If the Labour vote holds up to 2019 levels, or increases a bit, and the Tory vote gets split in 2 between them and Reform, then Labour walk in on a massive majority. If there’s a bit of tactical voting whereby the Leftist vote tends to whichever of Labour or LD that has the best chance of winning any given seat then I can see the Tories being totally wiped out. We can see what can happen in the recent by elections. Massive Tory majorities overturned because their vote stayed at home or went to Reform.
I think people are utterly fed up with the Tories, viscerally so. Those who never vote for them will vote for anyone to get them out. Floating voters will flip back to Lab/Lib, those disposed to vote for them historically will either stay at home or vote Reform. Nobody wants to see them back again. They are utterly friendless, and deservedly so.
“The original wrecker of the education system went to Fettes”; wrong generation.
Antony Crosland went to Highgate School.
Wokeypedia: In her biography published in 1982, Susan Crosland said her husband had told her “If it’s the last thing I do, I’m going to destroy every fucking grammar school in England. And Wales and Northern Ireland.”
Categorise it along with fox hunting and scrapping HMY Britannia.
A good mate is ex-FO (promoting trade in the Middle and Far East) and a bit of a leftie (surprise!) But he waxes lyrical about the time they got Britannia diverted through the Gulf wit h(then) Prince Charles aboard, and put on shows for the various Emirs and bigwigs, including the RM Beating the Retreat. He reckons it was worth millions.
Given there are only around 160 Grammar schools left, mainly in Kent and Bucks (?) and those are already heavily oversubscribed (The one I work at has space for 210 entrants and over double that number of applicants) there will be a lot of disappointed parents
Grammar schools are widely (but thinly) spread around England:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grammar_schools_in_England
@Steve
They’re deliberately trying to collapse the Tory vote
I’ve been saying that for over a year. They believe it’s Red Labour’s turn to be lead actor in our WEF, UN colony
Everything Blue Labour Hunt, Sunak, Gove etc do is an open two fingers to public including their not attacking Starmer’s policies
Starmer in serious trouble, Rayner under police investigation and silence