It’s the same old problem planners always have:
Sales of Volkswagen electric cars have plunged by almost a quarter in Europe as demand for battery-powered vehicles stalls and buyers return to petrol.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales fell by 24pc in the first three months of the year as high inflation and rising energy prices dampened demand.
Globally, all-electric sales at the owner of Audi, Skoda and Porsche dropped by 3pc to 136,400, while sales of combustion engine cars climbed 4pc to nearly two million.
The drop-off in EV demand comes as politicians in the region rollback subsidies and reconsider ambitious targets to dump petrol and diesel cars.
Consumers do, in fact, have agency. You can plan all you like but it does require, at least, the acquiesence of the people. And if they just, naaah, not doin’ that then the plans are stuffed.
You can go all the way to Soviet planning if you like – but you can then end up with them just pretending to work. Entirely possible to nudge, at the edges, consumer selection. But something that they’ll really not do, well, they’ll not do it.
The mistakes that governments made are
Setting a time limit far in the future
Not making owning an ICE a criminal offence.
What they should have said that as from Tuesday lunchtime manufacturers can only produce EVs and anyone found driving an ICE will be executed by specially trained killer bees.
If you allow the consumer any form of choice, they will choose the wrong option.
15 years ago or so the Jerries tried to introduce E10 petrol. There was a massive consumer revolt and no one bought the damned stuff. Garages who sold it started going out of business, Aral was hit very hard.
The UK govt saw this and realised that the way to achieve this was to act in true Fascist style and stitch up a deal with the producers and offer the consumer no choice. If you want regular 95 ron petrol you have to have this junk. That is how do it.
@Otto – That is the direction of travel with EVs. Maybe not the killer bees.
The government is still forcing auto manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of EVs. That’s 22% this year and it keeps rising to 100% . By 2030, 80% of cars sold in the UK will have to be zero emission. 2030 is not very far away….
@Marius: and yet this morning I heard a news report that they expect self-flying taxis by the year 2030, which makes me wonder what they are all smoking at the DfT!
By 2030, 80% of cars sold in the UK will have to be zero emission. 2030 is not very far away….
I think one definitively say that is not going to happen. People will opt to continue running their ICE cars & the car industry won’t be able to sell electrics manufactured.
It’s going to be fascinating watching government backing out of this. Especially as it’s likely to be a Labour government. But back out they’re going to have to. I suspect it’ll be made easier because the same will be happening in so many other nations.
At every turn the NetZero zealots tell us we must use devices or alternative resources that are
More expensive
Not more sustainable
Require huge adaptation only necessary for them (no wider benefits)
Won’t fit in with existing infrastructure
Greater reliance on one source of energy, electricity
Less reliable and variable generation systems
All to deal with a problem for which no empirical evidence exists
And they wonder why there is consumer resistance
Unfortunately the Government “nudges” it along by intruding ZEV credits. If a car manufacture is unable to hit its percentage of electric cars it buys the regulatory credits from a manufacturer that has excess. It’s a fantastically profitable business for pure electric car manufacturers as the credits cost them nothing so they have zero overheads. It pushes the price of electric cars up but as it goes from one manufacturer to another its “technically” not a tax so the Government can claim not to have raised taxes.
Tesla made $1.79 billion from selling automotive regulatory credits in 2023
Typo …
It pushes the price of ICE cars up …
“How do I demonstrate that I am one of the Nomenklatura, if even the peasants have cars?”
No, they will not back down.
“ It’s going to be fascinating watching government backing out of this. Especially as it’s likely to be a Labour government. But back out they’re going to have to. I suspect it’ll be made easier because the same will be happening in so many other nations.”
The darling of the hard left and progressives, to the extent there’s any difference, in Germany has joined forces with the FDP and others on the right to call for an end to the proposed ICE ban. Germany is lobbying hard in the EU as well so expect Labour to “align with the EU” as their get out of jail card.
Germany is lobbying hard in the EU
And may get a good reception. I read recently, 40% of cars here are over 15 years old. We don’t have dated bling registration plates for the rabbit hutch estate dwellers to obsess over having the latest to keep up with the neighbours. With current on the road & new build up to ICE termination that fleet would last until the 2060’s. It’s similar in the rest of Europe.
Why the supine Brits ever fell for that scam beats me. It’s never been any advantage to the police to know the registration year of a car. Either they’re obviously in the new not require an MOT bracket from the model or do need one has it got one? bracket. That was true in ’63. Once it all went computerised, system was redundant. It was always a sop to the motor manufacturers. No other reason for it.
It’s a millennial cult exclusive to the Christian West.
Maybe in time it will evaporate but meanwhile there is a status attraction. Everyone wants to hang out with the cool kids, and the coolest at the moment is a Swedish mong whose parents are millionaires.
Three things always struck me. Firstly, no-one was flipping EVs. These are the hot new cars, why is demand not outstripping supply? Secondly, you could see a map of where EV adoption was, and see that it was heavily around London (people avoiding the congestion charge). And thirdly, no-one I knew that I would describe as a “farty” (copyright Ben Elton) that drove something functional like a Toyota or a Skoda cared about having an EV. I don’t even mean “oh, I’d love a Tesla, but I can’t afford one”. They just didn’t care at all.
Meanwhile, Toyota’s stock price is like Beethoven’s Ode to Joy and Tesla’s is the theme from Curb Your Enthusiasm.
“people avoiding the congestion charge”: a point worth repeating every time somebody claims ‘the subsidy’ was removed in 2022. Presumably there’s still a benefits-in-kind subsidy too?
Expect to see the average age of vehicles increase considerably. It’ll create a lot of work for mechanics. If the Cuban mechanics can keep 80 year old cars running then by gum the European ones should be able to do it too. Unless the whole execution thing by killer bees comes into effect.
TD
Cuban roads don’t have as much salt on them as British ones. And it doesn’t chuck it down all the time either.
bis,
Eventually even the motor manufacturers complained about the annual registration symbol because it was distorting the timing sales to the extent they couldn’t effectively plan and we’re having to store fast amounts of cars because everyone who was buying new wanted to take delivery on new letter day.
@BiND
everyone who was buying new wanted to take delivery on new letter day
This is very understandable because when they later sell that car its second hand value is driven mostly by the numbers in the price guide book from the row for the registration letter of the car. Getting the car 2 days earlier means 6 months to a years extra depreciation when they sell.
you could see a map of where EV adoption was, and see that it was heavily around London (people avoiding the congestion charge)
The great majority of those who live inside the M25 have no real need of a car (they may need a van if they’re a plumber or similar). Public transport is cheaper and quicker than a car for most purposes, and for occasional forays beyond Watford there are rental companies.
@BiND
That’s why they started changing the numbers twice a year. Give the motor industry two cracks at you. FFS, this time don’t their game. Tell ’em they can stick their EV s where the sun don’t shine. If nobody buys them, nobody has to buy them.
I think people are missing the point here. They don’t want you to buy an EV. They want you to get the bus.
The great majority of those who live inside the M25 have no real need of a car
That sounds like someone who either doesn’t live inside the M25. Or yet another office drone from the suburbs who desk jockies near the centre.
Public transport in London is essentially radial. Not too bad if you want to get in & out of the centre. It’s different going across London.
Take a journey I’ve done. Crouch End /Wembley. About 10 miles by crow. Do it round the North Circ in half an hour. Google Maps is telling me 55 mins via bloody Kings Cross. That’s a bus to Finsbury Park. If you can get on one. Tube to Kings Cross & change. Tube to Wembley Park. I need Kingsbury, so either change Tube or a bus. My experience, at least 2 hours. And at least at both ends I was on a bus route. if not, you could add 15 mins walk at each end. Return, half a day’s travelling. And that’s a simple journey compared with some. Add breathing some sweaty n*****s armpit about 3 inches from your nose & the possibility of a mugging at several points. If you don’t get your pockets picked.
When I lived in London, I avoided public transport at all costs. Especially buses. And then, if no alternative, did it armed.
Interesting piece here on the likely cost of merely ‘decarbonising’ the UK grid. LINK
TL:DR – it’s going 40% higher than the (ridiculous) cost of electricity from Hinkley Point and three times the price of nuclear in France.