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It’s one of those interesting little signals

Amid all the talk of a “seismic” victory for Labour, a closer inspection of the election results so far may leave Sir Keir Starmer with a nagging doubt at the back of his mind.

He already knows that overturning the 80-seat majority won by Boris Johnson in 2019 is not a given, as no party in history has achieved that scale of turnaround in one leap.

And he now knows that Labour’s position on Gaza is causing a collapse in the Muslim vote, shown most starkly in Oldham, where his party lost overall control of the council, but also evidenced elsewhere.

“The Muslim Vote” is apparently a thing now. In a way that “The Christian Vote” is not. Ain’t that an interesting change in the politics of this country?

28 thoughts on “It’s one of those interesting little signals”

  1. ‘Ain’t that an interesting change in the politics of this country?’

    Ain’t that an interesting change in the population of this country?

    There. Fixed that for you Tim.

  2. Despite the Tories’ disastrous record in office and despite the rise of Reform people will still vote for them to ‘keep Labour out.’ Our system is likely to give Labour a win, because people are still stupid enough to vote for them as well. That said, I don’t expect the landslide being predicted. They always ignore the shy Tory vote and now the shy Reform vote. If Galloway eats into the Labour vote, then Starmer could well end up with the largest amount of seats, but no overall majority. That could prove interesting.

  3. I find it amazing that politicians don’t seem to understand what the diversity imports actually intend. It’s all written out in their version of Mein Kampf. I suppose they’ve become used to disputes being nice and civilised and restricted to calling other people names in a big room. Perhaps they’ve been taking lessons from Kahn’s amazingly well informed Plod. “Jihad” just means a civilised debate over a nice cup of tea, not the sort of thing the common weal think it means. You know, just ask that Salman Rushdie. Oh, wait…
    They do seem to be a bit worried, hence the hiring of private security as opposed to relying on said Plod, but I think they could possibly be too thick to imagine how this will turn out.

  4. Longrider

    I’m not sure that there is a “shy” Reform vote. They might hit 15%. But as we are seeing in the councils and by elections, this will not translate into seats.

    None of the Above will win the next election if it stood.

    The fact that there is an Islamic vote is a very bad signal to the politicod who will start appeading them even more to maintain their ‘green wall’

  5. Ducky McDuckface

    Well, been reading about the Manc experience via The Mill.

    There, it would appear it’s largely Galloway winding everybody up, plus a motivated candidate who had it in for the Labour council leader, who may or may not have been particularly well liked anyway.

    And there’s always the usual low turnout problem.

    Galloway’s played the biraderi game before (and he’s not the only one) but I’d assume that the Muslim Vote is concentrated in a handful of wards/constituencies. In others, it might be swamped by higher turnout at a GE.

    Still gives Starmer a problem tho’ as if he does form a government, with a number of Muslim backbenchers, they will shoot their mouths off and they will come under closer scrutiny from what’s left of the mainstream media, let alone anywhere else.

  6. Ducky McDuckface

    With Longrider on this; depends what the candidates do when the campaign actually starts, plus anything the newly elected councillors get up to before.

    Strong chance of Starmer experiencing a 2010 moment, not a 1997 one.

  7. Apart from the national catastrophe of having a bunch of fissiparous Muslim parties bickering, banning and beheading over the direction they want to take the UK, Starmer will be OK.

    Socialist parties based on workers, peasants and intellectuals always were a bit tricky to manage. Welfare recipients, welfare administrators, and sexual minorities is more viable.

  8. People who think tribally vote in the interests of their tribe. Not exactly shocking.

    As a very wise man said: ” Import the third-world, become the third-world.”

  9. Bloke in Pictland

    People who read the extraordinary column in The Times this week by Fatty Farquharson might wonder whether there’s an anti-Christian vote in Scotland.

    Of course you can argue there always was, cast by the Christian-adjacent Roman Catholics.

  10. BiP – Kate Forbes is unfit to be first minister of a 21st-century Scotland. A 1920s Scotland, maybe. A 1950s Scotland, perhaps. But not Scotland in 2024.

    Because she’s a Christian.

    Humza Yousaf was the first Muslim to lead a national government in the western world. This in itself is an extraordinary badge of honour for Scotland.

    Kenny is too fat and stupid to live.

    Yousaf rightly dwelt on it in his resignation speech. “People who looked like me were not in positions of political influence, let alone leading governments, when I was younger,” he said.

    Yarp, drooling retards are a relatively new thing in politics.

  11. I wouldn’t read a lot into one council, especially Oldham, which is not just full of Muslims, but also some of the poorest people (who tend to be more extreme). Lots of Muslims don’t actually care that much about Gaza. They want the same stuff everyone else does: make money, have good services, etc etc.

    I think Labour are going to win by some margin, because the most accurate poll (preferred Prime Minister) gives Keir Starmer a considerable lead over Rishi Sunak, something around 33% to 20%. Neither scores great, but Rishi is a disaster.

    On top of that, I think lots of people are going to vote Reform. Because there’s a point where “keep labour out” stops working. What is the philosophical difference between the Conservatives and Labour? Nothing. The only real difference is that Labour will increase the rate of spending and debt slightly faster. If you perceive the difference as not worth spending your vote on, you’ll go with Reform.

    I doubt Reform will win any seats. I think in a few areas (like the North) they might get a few seconds, But They’re going to split the “right” vote by enough that the Conservatives are going to lose a lot of seats. I don’t know if he’s going to get a majority over 80, but I don’t think it’s impossible.

  12. Labour will “win” big, but there’s net zero enthusiasm for a Labour government and nobody seriously believes things will get better under Labour.

    It’s not 1997 anymore. Labour are ahead because the Conservative Party committed electoral suicide in preference to doing anything their own voters want.

    Labour will do the same thing.

    The establishment might believe they can keep playing musical chair games with an increasingly angry electorate, but I reckon the music is gonna stop for them sooner than they can imagine.

  13. “Humza Yousaf was the first Muslim to lead a national government in the western world. This in itself is an extraordinary badge of honour for Scotland.”

    1) He’s not. However much his party dreams otherwise, Holyrood is a sub-national government. Useless is at precisely the same level as Jean-Guy Talamoni, the President of the Regional Council of Corsica.

    2) How’s that, then? It used to be a badge of honour for Scotland that it was the only country in Europe which never persecuted the Jews. That looks like it’s on a pretty shoogly peg these days.

  14. To go back to one of Steve’s points

    We’ve always had drooling retards in Parliament, even Jew hating ones. They just never had the opportunity to post pictures of their todger on the Interwebs before.

  15. Steve,

    “The establishment might believe they can keep playing musical chair games with an increasingly angry electorate, but I reckon the music is gonna stop for them sooner than they can imagine.”

    I think the Conservatives could be finished after the next election. It’s a lot like the Church of England. You have the people in the pews, and the general public. They want some religion, some spiritual and emotional guidance. And the bloke in charge is all about:-

    AI ethics
    criticising Israel
    apologising for slavery
    climate change

    And it’s not like Welby is some outlier, some weirdo that they’re waiting to get shot of. That’s the last bloke, it’s what a lot of the other bishops and vicars are like.

    The sort of people who will or might vote Conservative want to drive cars, have lower taxes, have law and order, a good health system and not have armies of immigrants being housed. The party wants you all to ride bikes and use trains, have higher taxes, fail to deal with crime and don’t really care that much about illegal immigration. And I don’t think it’s going to change. I joined the party looking for plotters to help and I realised that they don’t exist. The activists are all like Cameron and May. Which is why I think Reform are going to not only do some damage to them but gradually become a more serious party and replace them.

  16. @WB

    I think Reform will.make a big enough impact to be influential in the next parliament and well placed for the inevitable Labour implosion

    I just cannot see a Starmer government lasting long.

    Plus even cursory media inspection of their manifesto (as yet unwritten )will be revealing

    I predict minority government propped up by the various nationalists and cults

  17. Otto – tbf, literally anybody from John Major’s cabinet, including David Mellor, looks like an intellectual giant compared to the hopeless losers in charge now.

    WB – I think you’re right, and NB also the British Left’s inchoate, frustrated realignment under Jeremy Corbyn. They haven’t gone away, you know, as Gerry Addams once warned us.

    Interested – Within minutes of getting the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine, Michelle Zimmerman felt pain racing from her left arm up to her ear and down to her fingertips. Within days, she was unbearably sensitive to light and struggled to remember simple facts.

    She was 37, with a Ph.D. in neuroscience, and until then could ride her bicycle 20 miles, teach a dance class and give a lecture on artificial intelligence, all in the same day. Now, more than three years later, she lives with her parents. Eventually diagnosed with brain damage, she cannot work, drive or even stand for long periods of time.

    Bloody hell.

  18. Steve,

    I think Starmer is aligned better right now. He talks far enough left to keep the left of the party, but not so far as to get the floating voters to run away.

    But once he gets into power, I have no doubt that the left are going to be disappointed when we don’t end up going Full Communist. I don’t think Starmer really has much of a plan beyond carrying on as we are.

  19. The Democrats in the US have a similar problem. They can’t afford to lose the Muslim vote in Michigan. This has led to the Biden administration having a particularly inchoate policy towards Israel.

    Even the Democrats learn from painful electoral experience, they cannot afford to lose Michigan again like in 2016, that led to the defenestration of St. Hillary. The problem is also keeping the rich Jewish donor class on board, so they have the money to contest swing states.

    The anemic response to campus and Blue City protests is the result. This has pushed center and Never Trump voters towards Trump. The Democratic convention should be interesting. More popcorn please!

  20. I don’t agree with many Northern Ireland residents voting on religious lines but I kind of understand it.
    But even during the Troubles I never heard of Americans voting on religious lines in their own local elections for crying out loud because of a certain party’s view on Northern Ireland.
    Then again, Americans are sensible people, descendants of people who outlawed cousin marriage.

  21. Western Bloke and Starfish,

    My view is that Starmer will only remain in office until September 2025 when a simple card vote at the Labour Conference will kick him out and trigger a leadership election to be determined by MPs, CLPs and activists. By that time he may be so fed up with attempting to discipline, or more likely with being pulled in all directions by, the rabid new intake that he’ll be more than happy to step down. After all he is a classic man of straw with no genuine convictions, not a fighter.

    I find it interesting that the bookies make Andy Burnham 6/1 favourite to be the next leader. Unless I have misunderstood the eligibility rules he would first have to be parachuted in as an MP* in which case surely the equally ambitious Sadiq Khan at 40/1 is a far better bet as his intersectional score dwarfs Burnhams eyeshadow.

    * which will be nearly impossible in the short term as so few conservatives will remain in office at the end of this year while any that do will be in rock-solid dinosaur constituencies that would never elect a socialist.

  22. @John


    On Burnham not being MP, there was an article in iirc Telegraph a month or so ago on that. Question was about Boris replacing Wefi Sunak. PM doesn’t need to be an MP. iirc path is like Cameron, make a Lord then find suitable seat, run and renounce Lordship. It’s been done before

    And finally…
    Some humour

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