A YouGov survey put Mr Farage’s party on 19 per cent, ahead of the Tories on 18 per cent. Labour remains ahead on 37 per cent, a lead of 18 percentage points, while the Liberal Democrats are placed fourth on 14 per cent.
Obviously, it’s not going to work that way on seats. But it is a delight, all the same.
Getting a higher polling than the Tories will probably help Reform.
Floaters might see those headlines and think that it is actually worth casting a vote Reforms way.
Lord Ashcroft does polling and produces what I think is a lot of irrelevant data on his website.
Anyway in one article he suggests that the number of Dont Knows is 44%
Which of course is never reflected in these polls but is too significant a proportion to be ignored. It also suggests that we are looking at a a very low turnout.
Well done Nigel. Pushing the Conservatives into 3rd place is the only thing that’s going to shake the Conservatives out of their complacency. Mind you, on those numbers, if Nigel gets a few more votes the Conservatives might even come fourth!
Interesting there’s a big sex divide – that 19% for Reform is made up of 24% of men and 14% of women,
Similar divides on age (at 50) and ‘socioeconomic class’. On age, that actually means Reform get more consistent support across all age ranges than any of the other main parties (Labour might want to rethink their votes at 16 policy, once they see that), although on sex and class Reform are much more divided than the others.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_240613_w.pdf
The right people are obviously worried. The BBC’s Thought Correction Girl has done a piece on whether the support for Reform is just a couple of dozen literal Nazi pensioners plus an army of bots:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1335nj316lo
And Alastair Campbell is accusing Farage of having no integrity.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a collection of fools, simpletons and idiots pretending they could govern a country. It’s certain that the public quangos, legal profession and civil service will only cooperate with a Labour government but the shadow cabinet members are the equivalent of 12 year olds who have just found Dad’s stash of pot and brandy and have been indulging themselves for the past year after having had a frontal lobotomy…
“And Alastair Campbell is accusing Farage of having no integrity.”
Bloody hell that’s cheeky.
I girded my loins and clicked on Simon’s link. I couldn’t bring myself to read the article since the writer is obviously incapable of telling the truth and is probably illiterate having been hand-picked for the post, but I’m tempted to contact her to inform her that the bots she thinks are trying to indoctrinate people are a sinister new form of AI that has been trained by gammons to be racist, fascist, homophobic, transphobic Brexiteers…
Marianna Spring – the truth seeker who lied on her CV.
RichardT,
Midlands 24 vs 19. I stand by my prediction that we’re going to have Conservative areas and Reform areas after this election, and that we’ll be able to closely map the new Reform areas to where Leave was strongest. The sort of places that are heavily private sector, but where people aren’t that wealthy, like Nuneaton, Stoke, Peterborough, Romford.
Not that I think they’ll win seats. Labour will win these places. But they’ll be the opposition, and the votes will gravitate around them for the next election.
Meanwhile here in the colonies the schadenfreude has faded to be replaced by a ghastly fascination as the Bleeding Poms shoot themselves in the foot, pause to reload, shoot again, reload, shoot again…
Shit it down!
I’m tempted to contact her to inform her that the bots she thinks are trying to indoctrinate people are a sinister new form of AI that has been trained by gammons to be racist, fascist, homophobic, transphobic Brexiteers…
Or, “my children”, as they prefer to be known.
Is that Alastair “Cunt” Campbell, former lunatic and alcoholic, a chap who admits he was guilty of violent assault and of being a journalist, a chap keen on blowing up Arabs even when they were the wrong sort of Arabs? That one?
A doss sort of a fellow with a dossier past.
Whenever I see the words “Marianna Spring” I always wonder why the world’s deepest hole would need suspension.
BiW:
I have visions of fresh seaweed sprouting and lively fish getting ready for spawning, all set to music by Aaron Copland.
Ottokring: It might be worth putting a few quid on the next government being elected by the lowest share of the overall electorate in history. Tony Blair managed to persuade 21.6% of us to vote for his mob in 2005, narrowly edging out Bonar Law’s record of 21.9% in 1918.
Not that they’ll take a blind bit of notice. It’ll be a “landslide”, a “ringing endorsement“, etc., etc., then they’ll act all surprised when it turns out four out of five of us can’t stand the bloody sight of them.
@Sam, is it still the case that Labour has never received more than 50% of the votes cast in a General Election? I’e always thought that was a neat measure of the validity of the claim to be the People’s Party.
that 19% for Reform is made up of 24% of men and 14% of women
What are the other 62% – non-binary?
dearieme said:
“is it still the case that Labour has never received more than 50% of the votes cast in a General Election?”
Still true, and likely to remain so.
Although to be fair, only Baldwin has managed to pass 50% since the Marquess of Salisbury. Even the Blessed Margaret at her best was very slightly short.
“ Which of course is never reflected in these polls but is too significant a proportion to be ignored. It also suggests that we are looking at a a very low turnout.”
I accept and have even used the argument that those who don’t vote accept the decision of those that do, but that is on the assumption that a large proportion of the electorate votes.
At some point if enough people abstain then the whole system of government starts to lack legitimacy. Where that point is I don’t know, but I’d say that if a third of the population can’t be persuaded to even register a protest vote then some serious questions need to be asked about our politics.
Bloke in North Dorset said:
“I’d say that if a third of the population can’t be persuaded to even register a protest vote then some serious questions need to be asked about our politics.”
Your serious questions are, of course, long overdue. 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015 all had more than a third of the electorate not voting, 2017 and 2019 were slightly better, but still over 30% of the electorate didn’t vote.
We haven’t had over 70% of the electorate voting this millennium.
Mind you, the 20th century wasn’t great for that either. It was over 70% (except for 1918, which was a bit disrupted), but it only got over 80% twice, in 1950 and 1951.
So we’ve nearly always had a fifth of the electorate not voting, often a quarter, and recently a third. Not sure what you think that says about our democracy.