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Don’t trust election predictions!

Narendra Modi’s party was set to lose its majority for the first time after falling well short of an expected election landslide, hampering ambitious plans to change the Indian constitution and cement his grip on power.

Mr Modi’s BJP party is projected to win the election in the world’s largest democracy, early results showed, but lose dozens of seats in parliament. He will now have to rely on alliances with smaller parties to secure an overall majority.

Yesterday, day before, I was seeing predictions of a two thirds majority. So, we don’t have to worry. It is still possible, the turnaround, the Tories could still be wiped out.

17 thoughts on “Don’t trust election predictions!”

  1. Rational Anarchist

    I did think Sunak did well on the debate. Starmer mostly demonstrated how to avoid answering questions and Sunak put his position forth quite well. Sadly, i don’t like most of his position…

  2. I admit that making predictions, especially for the future, can be a bit tricky. But I’d be amazed if the Tories get over 50 seats. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reform render the media and the Establishment apoplectic by winning more than 20. The Tories have lied for 14 years and, while all politicians lie, they’ve done so with a peculiarly gay abandon. Laughing at us during “the pandemic” was the first crumble of the brick. Arresting old ladies for sitting on park benches seemed unutterably silly. When juxtaposed with images of BLM grifters marching around in gangs, not only unmolested, but with people in authority kneeling before them laid the dynamite at the flaky foundations. Jacking up taxes to an insane level in order to pay people to come here while saying you were trying to stop them has probably ensured the burial of the Conservative and Unionist Party.

  3. The only fact you can obtain from a poll is that the question was answered. Possibly not truthfully, but answered nonetheless. My mate down the pub always tells political canvassers that he will vote for their party, and then make his mind up on the day.

  4. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reform render the media and the Establishment apoplectic by winning more than 20.

    I’d be incredibly surprised if that happened. In fact, I’d wager Reform gets far close to zero seats. There was a report on the possible make up of Parliament last week. I can’t remember what it said for the Tories and Labour, but the estimate was that 12% of the vote would gain Reform zero seats, while the LibDems would get 10% of the vote and 50 seats.

    My prediction is the Tories won’t do quite as badly as people fear, as lots of shy voters will end up voting for the party they hate because they fear Labour. I also reckon a lot of Remainer/one nation plastic Tory types will vote LibDem.

    I don’t think Farage’s charisma is going to be enough for the otherwise charisma-free Reform. Happy to be wrong, but I don’t see it.

  5. What a lot of the polls seem to be missing is the state of the SNP. Some, to be fair, have them losing maybe half of their seats, but others don’t even seem to have noticed that they’re in a similar – if not worse – position to the Tories nationally. Just like them, even their lifelong supporters can’t stand them at this stage. They’ve even got their own wee Reform problem, with Oily Alec’s Alba party.

    I saw one poll showing them retaining all 48 seats from 2019 (i.e., regaining the five they’ve lost to defections; proportionally, that’s like the Tories losing nearly 40, by the way), which is utterly insane. Don’t be surprised if they end up with less than 20, and maybe I’m just an optimist but I wouldn’t be shocked to see single figures.

    Why does it matter? Because that means there’s somewhere between 20-40 seats up for grabs that aren’t currently held by the Tories. And yes, most of ’em will go to Labour. But for the first time in living memory, a Tory party being absolutely hammered nationally might actually have some consolation from north of the border. Don’t bet against it, is all I’m saying.

  6. Arresting old ladies for sitting on park benches seemed unutterably silly.

    Yes, but Farage – like Starmer – called on BoJo to introduce stricter covid controls. Farage, IIRC, idiotically called for the closure of all UK airports…

  7. Bloke in North Dorset

    My prediction is the Tories won’t do quite as badly as people fear, as lots of shy voters will end up voting for the party they hate because they fear Labour. I also reckon a lot of Remainer/one nation plastic Tory types will vote LibDem.

    I tend to agree. Pollster or more likely the MSM never report won’t vote/don’t know and I suspect that when Labour/Reform/LibDem voters are approached they are enthusiastic whereas Conservative voters either lie or refuse to take part, which will make it harder to get their samples.

    I don’t think the effect will be big enough to make a huge difference but enough to embarrass the pollsters, again.

    I also think that Reform will also pick up more Labour voters than currently assumed.

  8. Things that make you go “the Rishi coup was about permanently ensuring Continuity Blairism and everyone involved needs jailing”:

    Sunak was offered a deal to stop Farage and decided to reject it

    Exclusive: A late bid was made to broker a deal between Sunak and Reform which could have saved scores of Tory MPs

    The Tories literally chose electoral suicide over throwing the smallest of crumbs to that notorious hive of scum and gammony, their voters.

    They clearly don’t answer to the electorate, so who is it they do work for? Any idea, Theo?

  9. Rishi Sunak has just turned 44.
    I won’t live to see it but I would love to see an interview, hour long, no interruptions, with him when he’s 79, possibly from the independent country of New Texmizona: what the hell did you think you were doing leaving Liz Truss in the deep, saying you wouldn’t fracking work for the person the membership had chosen, were you channelling Brewster or something.
    Nil seats would be marvellous. Imv of course.

  10. @Marius

    “I’d be incredibly surprised if that happened. In fact, I’d wager Reform gets far close to zero seats.”

    Yeah, anyone who seriously believes Reform are going to get even five seats should try naming them. Look at the electoral history of that constituency. Look at the local economy and demographics to get a sense of which direction defectors are likely to turn – it’s not only Reform that the Tories are bleeding votes to. Look at the strength of the Reform candidate in that seat. And look at how strong the Reform ground game is there – they do have a big shortage of activists and database info compared to other parties, so will really need to prioritise where they do the legwork.

    If anyone who has performed this exercise seriously can lay out 20 seats where they believe Reform has a very good chance of winning, they should (a) post it online and see whether other people with more local knowledge can point out any flaws in their list, and/or (b) if confident, go and plonk a decent bet on the result, because you can get very long odds on it.

  11. Farage, IIRC, idiotically called for the closure of all UK airports…
    I don’t follow your logic there, Theo. Given that there were restrictions on people travelling & meeting to avoid transmission of the virus within the country it would seem entirely logical to suspend travel in & out of the country to prevent the virus crossing borders.It’s not as if anyone was going on foreign holidays was it?
    Oh wait, of course. We couldn’t inconvenience the great & good & assorted slebs could we? Essential travel. Of course it was. I can remember them all coming together for the WEF. And putting their masks on for the cameras.

  12. @bis

    Wasn’t Farage’s call to shut the airports much earlier, right at the beginning? Proponents of the idea claimed it would stop the virus seeding here in the first place. That really was ridiculous, even most of the Covid zealots said it would be pointless. Only could even possibly make sense for a geographically isolated country – like NZ and some of the Pacific islands. And you have to keep the borders locked down indefinitely.

    For the UK, there are too many lorries coming into Dover each day for there to be any way to keep the virus out completely. Especially back at the start when there was no way to give every lorry driver a diagnostic test before letting them in. Once the virus is in, it’s in, and you aren’t getting rid of it unless you go through the massive Zero Covid lockdown rigmarole the kiwis and Aussies did. Border restrictions would only have delayed the entry of the virus by days at most.

    The start of the pandemic was a funny time, amazing how many smug members of the commentariat were slamming Caprice for calling for a lockdown, as late as 16 March! Before promptly U-turning and becoming lockdown fanatics themselves. Literally days later. The whole process repeated with whether the public should wear face masks too.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/culture/tvfilm/caprice-criticised-doctor-coronavirus-debate-jeremy-vine-a4388816.html

    In the distant recesses of my memory I seem to recall Farage pressing, right at the start, for social contact restrictions. Maybe not “lockdown” explicitly, but that term wasn’t really much in circulation until they started happening, so quite possibly a call for lockdown by another name. That’s in addition to his call for airport closures – wasn’t he making a big deal that the government’s inaction was condemning swathes of the older generation to death? Memory is fallible but I think this was one of his talking points on GB News.

  13. Anon @ 12.27 “And you have to keep the borders locked down indefinitely”.
    Exactly that. As with Oz, as soon as they opened up, the virus was in (if it wasn’t in already before they closed the stable door).

    I remember logging all the flights coming into the UK during lockdown.
    Wasn’t allowed to walk up the road to see my kids, but flights every day from China, Nigeria, South Africa, the Middle East etc., etc.

    I also remember Caprice and a lady Doctor on the Vile show arguing about masks. The Doctor said all the scientific evidence proved they were useless, but Caprice (not noted for her medical training or scientific qualifications btw) was insistent.
    A few days later the good Doctor had obviously been ‘re-educated’ and was all in favour of any old piece of rag strung across your gob.

  14. Steve

    Floating voters inclined to vote Tory don’t like Reform or even Farage much; so a Reform-Tory electoral pact would arguably benefit Reform more than the Tories. Since Reform is determined to destroy the Tory party, a pact would arguably be suicidal for the Tories. Sadly, there is (as yet) no electoral market for a seriously right wing government in the UK. In these circumstances, alleged “continuity Blairism” is preferable to Starmerite socialism. And when Starmerite socialism finally implodes, the electorate is unlikely to turn to Reform, but it could turn to the Limp Dicks or Greenies.

  15. BiS

    Closing airports would have hugely increased the damage to the UK economy while in no way reducing the spread of the virus. Farage was essentially advocating that the UK sealed its borders like NZ and Australia. And that was insane. It’s also ironic given that Reform’s voters tend to deplore the covid lockdowns.

    PS Logic is the science of the purely formal relationships between concepts and statements. Acordingly, logic tells us nothing about what is the case.

  16. “Theo – that’s a lot of words to avoid the question.”

    What’s your reading age, Steve?

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