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Err, yes?

Covid immune response study could explain why some escape infection

Some folks get something infectious, some don’t. The answer could lie in the variability of immune systems.

Erm, yes?

24 thoughts on “Err, yes?”

  1. I have ( had, I hope ) a very badly screwed immune system for over 7 years and barely had a sniffle. I caught “something” in Munich Airport last year that was cured with Strepsils and had this coughing flu that was around at Xmas, but all post ‘pandemic’.

  2. Diamond Princess:
    3711 passengers and crew.

    712 tested positive = <20% (81% chance of not contracting it. A husband and wife sharing the same cabin during the entire quarantine – one got it the other didn’t, 50%, which seems a bit crap for something which was touted as being akin to the plague…..).

    570 who tested positive had no or only mild symptoms = 80% chance of those who contracted it having not knowing they had it or had only mild symptoms.

    42 who tested positive experienced severe symptoms = <8% chance of those who contracted it being seriously ill.

    14 deaths (all bar one over the age of 70 and all with two or more comorbidities) = 2.5% chance of those who contracted it dying.

    Anyone who was paying attention to the evidence knew it was nothing more than a bad case of flu way before our 'leaders' trashed the economy and trampled all over our rights.

  3. @ Adolff
    2.5% death rate in a couple of weeks is *significantly* worse than we get from the annual (or nearly annual) wave of flu. For 80-year-olds (most of those over 70 are under 80 so I’m taking 80 to err on the side that would favour you), one would expect two or less – NOT 14 – to die in that period.
    So anyone *who is numerate* and paid attention to the evidence knew that it *was* more than a bad case of flu.

  4. It was another case of the morons who “lead” us being blissfully unaware of that funny thing, the internet.
    At a very early stage I remember dear old Raedwald pointing out that masks are useless, given the size of the virus. When everyone was getting frantic about the likely mutations, I remembered back to my biology A level that viruses mutate because, being unable to live outside living cells, they become less lethal but more transmissible. I remember seeing some South African doctors overjoyed with the discovery of Omicron as it was the vaccine that was “desperately” needed.
    I got very suspicious when the government started issuing statistics that showed people dying WITH Covid, as opposed to OF Covid. A bit strange that they all seemed to be 89 years old…

  5. Some of the stats are unreliable due to the Munchausens people. Murphy’s had God knows how many bouts of COVID, interspersed with long COVID, enthusiastically blogging about his terrible symptoms for each.

  6. John77: It wasn’t 14 deaths out of all the 2,666 passengers (median age 69) on the Diamond Princess.. It was 14 out of the passengers with two or more comorbidities (and who also actually caught the virus: most turned out to be immune – the point of this post).

    I have no idea what the expected death rate would be over a fortnight for elderly people with two or more comorbidities and whose immune systems leave them susceptible to coming down with the flu, but 2% sounds reasonable.

  7. *flips through actual paper*
    *flips through the rest of the output listed for this physician*

    Seems they were already tracking this pathway and found that it also works the same for CoVid.
    Ans is roughly exactly as you’d expect: bell curve distribution in the population, with underlying trigger levels breaking the effect up in the three groups described.

    Mind.. They used the pre-Alpha virus ( as in: the tame old indiginous “CoVid” coronavirus) to do the testing, so the results won’t quite translate to what Alpha and beyond did, but it does apply to what we can expect from Omicron and beyond, since those have become much more Civilised.

  8. “ Anyone who was paying attention to the evidence knew it was nothing more than a bad case of flu way before our ‘leaders’ trashed the economy and trampled all over our rights.”

    If it had happened in the ‘70s and maybe even ‘80s before life expectancy started to increase significantly that was probably the case, but as old people and those with 2 or more comorbidities were dying at significant rates it really was hard for politicians to ignore. However when that became obvious we knew what to do and it was reiterated in the Great Barrington Declaration.

  9. Diamond Princess, full of coffin dodgers.
    Compare and contrast a healthy population.
    Covid epidemic in aircraft carriers, Generale De Gaulle, USS Roosevelt and (?) USS Gerald Ford.
    These ships have hospitals.
    At height of plague still had over 70% capacity.
    No one died.

  10. “Raedwald pointing out that masks are useless, given the size of the virus.”

    But the size of the virus has fuck all to do with it. What matters is the size of the aerosol particles within which the virus is (presumably) transmitted.

    Mind you the conclusion is unchanged: of course the sodding surgical masks won’t work because earlier research shows they don’t work for other respiratory viruses anyway. Neither inbound nor outbound: they don’t bloody work – can’t bloody work. And N95 masks don’t work either except under conditions so extreme that they will hardly ever occur.

    It’s the treason of those in charge that has converted me from being an opponent of capital punishment. We need to change the incentives of the governing class so should hang them by the thousand.

  11. I’d say the problem with masks was not the effectiveness of the masks but the way they were used. They couldn’t be effective. For it to be effective you’d have to don the mask, wear it, remove & dispose of safely. Within two weeks of the Covid Panic commencing, shops were selling expensive fashion masks. You saw people pulling them down to make phone, calls. Putting them in pockets or handbags to be reused. I’m sure some people got through the entire fiasco on a single mask. Don’t know about Covid, but a grubby, warm, damp mask clamped to your face is going to be a breeding ground for all sorts of other nasties.They probably did more harm than good.

  12. BiS, it was even sillier…

    I wasn’t allowed on the train several times while wearing a proper mask, with the “correct” filters. ( I may have cheated a little on the inside of them to let air pass through more easily.)

    You’d think a proper professional halfmask with the correct filters would pass muster. Good enough for the operating theatre and various other places where you really want to use the sweatbuckets..
    Nope… “Not On The Approved List”..

    Me going Western Outlaw style: no problems at all…
    Me wearing a proper medieval gorget : no problems at all.. ( besides the stunned looks..)
    Me wearing a Plague Doctor mask: no problems at all.. ( more stunned looks and giggles… )
    (Me and some of my friends may have had some Fun with the mask sillyness…. 0:) )

    Me wearing something professional that should work: Nope!! Verboten!

    True Clownland….

  13. John77: It wasn’t 14 deaths out of all the 2,666 passengers (median age 69) on the Diamond Princess.. It was 14 out of the passengers with two or more comorbidities (and who also actually caught the virus: most turned out to be immune – the point of this post).

    Further, it was sick and elderly people who were denied all medical treatment for a considerable period while being confined to cramped conditions in a ship and terrified by the media – stress being a major risk factor for death – and then when in hospital pumped up with sedatives, opiates and remdesivir, and denied fluids, and when they did die it was almost certainly *with* not *of* Covid, and either way the only proof we have that it was even a factor in those deaths is the say-so of corrupt doctors literally paid bonuses to say people died of it.

    The amazing thing is how few were offed, not how many.

    Does anyone on here know that more people died in the vaccinated arm of the Pfizer ‘trial’ than in the ‘placebo’ (the placebo arm being cut short very quickly because of the above embarrassment ), or than of the 30-odd young and hitherto healthy triallists who suddenly dropped dead only two were given post mortems? The others were just buried (or more likely cremated asap).

  14. @ Paul, Somerset
    I *did* read Adolff’s post *and* the wikipedia report on Diamond Princess.
    567 passengers were infected, 14 died
    2.47% in two weeks is, prima facie, equivalent to 64.2% annual mortality rate.
    We are looking at elderly people taking a cruise, which implies affluent and not expecting to die before they complete the cruise (as that would be a waste of significant sums of money). General population mortality rates for Japanese 69-year-olds is 0.88% p.a., so 5 out of 567 *in a full year*. In two weeks roughly one chance in ten of a single death.
    Probability of fourteen deaths in two weeks is negligible (567×0.00034)^14 (and that doesn’t even adjust for the relative wealth and self-selection on expected mortality of the passengers) – less than one in a billion.

  15. John77

    You should bear in mind that ships generally have fairly shit air conditioning systems. They may have a few filters, some heating / cooling capability and even (rarely) some soda lime CO2 scrubbers. But in general the aircon just shifts around any bugs from cabin to cabin. So the Diamond Princess was a petri dish for the worst case.

  16. John, as faras I can see, you’re doing it again: focusing solely on those who did test positive for the virus, while ignoring the vast majority, who didn’t. The whole point of this post is that most of us, even the elderly, were immune to this virus. If you’re going to do comparisons with death rates in the general population, you can’t just restrict yourself to the 567 who did catch it. You have to also include the 2.099 for whom the virus was of no consequence because they were already immune.

    As for the argument that the population on the cruise ship might have been healthier than the average, every one of the 14 fatalities had two or more comorbidities: the sort of people who blow their savings on a cruise when they know they don’t have much time left; the sort of people, in fact, who until 2020 would have died by catching a cold, going into hospital and acquiring pneumonia. Instead of a cold, they caught this other virus.

  17. @ Paul. Somerset
    Yes, I was doing it again – answering Adolff’s post: try reading it before your next complaint.
    Incidentally, where is your data on the infrequency of co-morbidities in the elderly Japanese population?
    If it was normal to have two or three passengers die on each cruise, the cruise ship company would go out of business: no-one fancies being stuck in a confined space witha corpse or two.
    FYI wealthy elderly people have a lower mortality rate than the average for their age: that is why the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries produce two separate mortality tables, one for people buying life assurance who have been subjected to (and passed) a medical examination and one for those who have purchsed an “annuity” (commonly called a pension), without a medical examination – contrary to what might be inferred to be your opinion, the annuitants have significantly lower mortality rates (ask BraveFart or Chris Miller).
    As to your point about mortality for the entire passenger list which diverts considerably from Adolff’s post to which I was replying (2091x.00034)^14 is roughly 1/128 so is statitically significant at the 1% level

  18. Anyone who was paying attention to the evidence knew it was nothing more than a bad case of flu way before our ‘leaders’ trashed the economy and trampled all over our rights.

    On the plus side, lockdown and its associated paid indolence costs have contributed to the terminal decline (and hopefully imminent death) of the Tory Party.

    Thank goodness.

    Vote Reform!

  19. I think the problem with the Diamond Princess is it doesn’t really tell you much. For a start you have over two thousand people basically trapped in close proximity to each other. Philip’s point about the quality of ships’ ventilation systems. So people with poor immune systems or fragile health are going to repeatedly challenged over a lengthy period. Maybe it’s a wonder more of the oldsters didn’t croak. The care home situation was much the same. Neither bears much resemblance to how people live out in the world. But of course it’s there where all the lockdowns & distancing & other nonsense was imposed.

  20. @Addolff


    40% – 60% had immunity from Covid-19 due to previous coranavirus infections. I predicted this would be the case in March 2030

    Many others mucosal systems or T-cells defeated it – this leaves no anti-bodies to measure

    From day 1 the novel covid-19 deadly virus was a scam. Worse, people are still trotting out “nobody, we didn’t know’ lie to defend lockdowns etc

    As you point out, we knew in Feb 2020 from Diamond Princess it was a nothing burger and only some elderly at risk. Further confirmed by one French and two US warships that had outbreaks at similar time

    As for masks:
    N95 – football net trying to stop thousands of tennis balls
    Surgical – football net trying to stop thousands of marbles

    As for the jabs: for anyone who read the MSDSs in Dec 2020 it was obvious they were poison snake oil

    Johnson, Starmer, Valance etc and msm should all be in jail


    Most elderly who take cruises do so because they are frail and/or have co-morbidities. One would expect more deaths in such a cohort

    2.47% in two weeks is, prima facie, equivalent to 64.2% annual mortality rate

    Absolute BS


    Spot on, well said

    Before you vote for Starmer, remember his lockdown mania

  21. @ Pcar
    Do you have an aversion to simple arithmetic?
    NOT at all BS
    I said “prima facie” – I could have produced a number based on 0.9753^26 (around 50%) but that would have assumed that none of the 97.53% had their death hastened by the effects of the covid-19 that did not kill them within the two weeks so that would have been an understatement pretending to accuracy.
    My point was that the death rate was *massively* higher than that due to ‘flu and I gave the simple arithmetic number that non-mathematicians could understand in preference to a fancy number that hardly anyone would understand. I preter accuracy over precision when i have to make a choice.

  22. @ Pcar
    I should have added that none of the elderly people I know/have known who went on cruises did so in failing health. One of my ex-bosses and his wife have been in the habit of going on cruises for more than a decade. My mother-in-law gave up on cruising when her health deteriorated.

  23. @Interested – “Does anyone on here know that more people died in the vaccinated arm of the Pfizer ‘trial’ than in the ‘placebo’”

    Which trial was this? (On or equivalent)

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