Skip to content

Massive vote but….

The former prime minister secured 11,217 votes, just behind Labour’s 11,847 while Reform finished in third place with 9,958.
….
Labour held on to the seat, which is represented by Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, with a majority of 7,100. But the performance of Reform, which won 11,668 votes to Labour’s 18,847, suggested it was on course for a strong showing nationwide.

Doesn’t look like it will translate into that many seats but still. Nige is in which will make the Commons more interesting at least.

44 thoughts on “Massive vote but….”

  1. Bind in Lüneburg

    As I’ve just pointed out to my son and DiL:

    LibDems 12..3% =71 MPs
    Reform 14.3%= 4MPs

    I won’t be holding my breath waiting the LibDems to be demanding Labour introduce PR.

  2. It would be hilarious if the BoE decided to play silly buggers again and sink the first Reeves budget.

    But of course it won’t, no matter how damaging her proposals might be.

  3. Slightly fewer seats and votes than I expected – I predicted personally 16% and 6-8 seats but they seem to have 14.5% and 4. Still higher share than the Libs.

    Lots of three way marginals out there for the next election. Tories and Reform neck and neck second in my constituency. The incumbent slimeball lost. v.g.

    Also to my surprise, turnout was 60% – I thought that it’d struggle to 55%. It is higher than in Blair’s elections.

  4. My tosser of a Conservative MP was talking about how a drift to the right would be a terrible mistake. After he just lost his seat because Reform took a massive chunk of his vote.

    Not that it’s going to happen because losing Truss, Rees-Mogg, Justin Tomlinson, Philip Davies means there is barely a right in the Conservatives. There’s Esther McVey, Priti Patel and Suella Braverman. The people who won are the likes of Nick Timothy and Simon Hoare, so it’s even wetter than now.

  5. Bob Rees Mogg Truss

    I think Labour and left had a good election. Starmer is a very strong politician to take the Labour Party back to power. Starmer is a sensible moderate centre left leader.
    The left wing parties combined won more votes than the right wing parties combined.

  6. Starmer and labour- with likely 9.7m votes – has received a ringing endorsement and a mandate to smash up the UK in any way it sees fit.

    Corbyn and Labour got 10.3m votes in 2019. And lost the election.

    Kinnock and Labour got 11.5m votes in 1992. And lost the election.

    The joys of FPTP.

  7. It didn’t but Nige can and probably will point out that each reform MP represents over one million Reform voters as opposed to Labour MPs who got a mere 23,500 each.

  8. Nigel in, the Little Turd out, I’ll take it.

    Shame some Internet Tough Guys shat it and voted Tory because they were s-s-scared, but we’ve now got a sliver of representation inside the Commons thanks to all of you who held your nerve.

  9. Doesn’t look like it will translate into that many seats but still.

    Oh, it translated into seats alright. Labour seats.

    Nige is in which will make the Commons more interesting at least.

    I expect they’ll just talk amongst themselves when he speaks like they did with the Liberals.

  10. ReformUK made it to second place in my historically Labour voting area, Steve, so at least this election I felt my vote counted for something g at last.

  11. ConHome has an interesting observation re: the general malaise and failure of the now defunct Con Party:

    Perhaps the most telling explanation for why Rishi Sunak made his bizarre decision to call the snap election now is the prisons crisis, and few issues better encapsulate how we have set and primed this political timebomb over the past 14 years.

    Since 2010 we have closed 17 prisons. Four of these are currently tourist attractions, as prisons. One of those, HMP Lancaster, was at the time of closure the second-best performing prison, in terms of recidivism rates, in the entire country. It was shut for no better reason than that Ken Clarke had wanted to close it in the 1990s, and didn’t think it appropriate to have a jail in a castle.

    This programme has been pursued despite the abject failure to build even replacements for the cells we were shutting. The scale of the failure of the prisons programme actually boggles the mind:

    “A 2015 commitment to invest “£1.3 billion to create 10,000 new prison places by 2020” has, according to the Public Accounts Committee, produced just 206 (with 3,500 on the way in some form).”

    Prisons aren’t a hot political issue (yet), but like sewage or electricity generation, they’re part of the critical national infrastructure and people will notice when the system fails.

    The Tories were importing over a million immigrants a year, many of them violent rapists or jihadis, while allowing our prisons to go the way of our power stations.

    But they had plenty of money to spaff on HS2 and foreign aid.

    “The adults”, eh? No flowers.

  12. Truss the electorate

    I think Reform are just Thatcherite Tories with a new lick of paint.
    I do not understand working class voters voting for Reform. The Reform Party would Reform to help right wing yuppy types.
    We need moderate centre left parties.

  13. I do not understand working class voters voting for Reform.
    We need moderate centre left parties.

    One would suggest you look at what’s going on across the Channel. And not just in France but across Europe. By 2029 Reform will be centre left.

  14. Good points on prisons.
    And lots of laws in the last 10 years started from the khat ban, then psychoactives, NOx, decent sized vape juice bottles meaning more laws.
    I believe Gollum was prisons minister once. I wonder if he saw this coming

  15. TtE @ 12.27, I posit that we have had moderate left parties since around 1992 and look where there that has got us.
    And if you don’t understand why working class voters vote for Reform I am guessing you are neither working class nor live in a traditional working class constituency.

  16. Truss,

    “I think Reform are just Thatcherite Tories with a new lick of paint.”

    That’s like saying “Sydney Sweeney is just a pretty girl with a big pair of tits”. Rather missing the point of what many people want.

    “I do not understand working class voters voting for Reform. The Reform Party would Reform to help right wing yuppy types.”

    Then you don’t understand the working class, or the real dividing line in British politics, which is not about wealth, class, or what you drink, but whether you believe in being a productive member of society if you can, or living off the state. Which is why the left covers everyone from dolescum, to lawyers, to BBC executives. All of these people depend on the state. The dolescum don’t want a government that makes them get a job. The lawyers don’t want a free market that would drive down prices and force them out of business. The BBC doesn’t want to have to compete for money against Netflix and Amazon.

    “We need moderate centre left parties”

    No, we don’t. There’s a limit to how much good government does. And once you get much beyond Thatcher, John Major, the money just starts getting pissed away.

  17. The honeymoon will be short

    The warring factions and special interest groups will soon split Labour unity, emboldened by their large majority

    Who knows what scandals await the new intake, and many Labour seats are actually marginals if Reform keeps its vote

    Starmer has 6 months to make an impact on all the issues he has been criticising the outgoing government about

    Cant wait to see the cabinet – I predict the return of Blair era people like Mandelson

    Tick tock

  18. Julia – Yarpsolutely, I also expect Reform to pick up more seats in future, now they’ve broken the seal.

  19. We need moderate centre left parties.

    The moderate centre-left party that’s been in power for 14 years just got a complete drubbing. Hardly a riding endorsement for needing more of them.

    On a brighter note, here in Spen Valley, RFM came second, beating the Tories into 3rd place by 29 votes.

  20. Steve

    What’s interesting about your observations (in addition to their humour and general genius obviously) among many other things is if you went to any manifesto and went across every single policy area you could probably find dozens of examples. Whether the ‘snivel service’ simply didn’t want to do what they were told or more damningly the Conservatives didn’t know what they wanted to do the result is the same.

    I actually enjoy PJF’s commentary on almost everything bar the Ukraine War, but I am just struggling to concur with the notion that I should vote for someone simply because they are the lesser of two evils. Looking at four things ‘dear to my heart’

    – DIE is in almost every place of employment, every school, every voluntary institution like some demented mutant Japanese knotweed. The Conservatives did nothing about it beyond lip service

    – They had no precedent for the idea of lockdown, a policy imported from a communist dictatorship and rolled out at the behest of A Bond Villain. A nominally ‘Conservative’ party decided to imprison the population and close boozers and sundry other businesses and destroy the economy,

    – though there’s been the odd noise about militant Trans people they continue to avoid confrontation with them or Hamas militants on the ground they seem scared of a confrontation

    – Extending the ICE ban onset for five years hardly tackles the necessary abolition of ‘Net Zero’ and the realisation that the Climate Change thing is an enormous scam along the lines of COVID

    So – I can’t demur from what you say. The choice was between having globally directed politicians masquerading as Conservatives or a quite radical Left wing administration. If ‘Reform’ is the closest thing to ‘none of the above’ then happy to tick that box. I have no doubt it will be horrendous. The 1997 – 2010 is widely considered the worst government in human, let alone UK history. However, I am reminded of the saying of Anthony Weldon:

    ‘Fool me once, shame on you, Fool me twice, Shame on Me’

  21. Theophrastus (2066)

    Meanwhile…rapey migrants are celebrating Starmergeddon on the beaches of northern France…

  22. It’s a shame about Jeremy Cunt.

    But the silver lining would come if he manages to become the next tory leader. He’d make Abu Humza Useless look like an inspired choice.

  23. It’ll be interesting to see what happens over the next few years, Steve. You could take this election result as a protest against the Rishi government. But because it was nominally a government of the centre right (yeh I know, but don’t expect people who don’t follow politics closely to spot the mistake),the protest vote ends up being to the left. Since the only party to the right, Reform, really hasn’t got its act together yet.
    Now look at what’s happening over in Europe. Much the same feelings about the incumbent governments for much the same reasons. Left wing governments under pressure from the right. And quite a long way right on the important issues.
    UK going forward has a left wing government. The right could look very different in the coming years. And it could happen very quickly. Depends how much Starmer’s crew antagonises people.

  24. VP – thank you.

    I actually enjoy PJF’s commentary on almost everything bar the Ukraine War, but I am just struggling to concur with the notion that I should vote for someone simply because they are the lesser of two evils

    His argument made no sense at all, because it wasn’t rational. Fear made him believe it was important to vote Tory to somehow prevent Labour from doing stupid and evil things in office.

    It’s the same with the Ukraine stuff, which is just fear and hatred of Russia. That’s why we see the same rote allegations of people being Putlerists or whatever. It’s just angry older men raging about a largely fictional external enemy because the scale of what our actual enemies in Westminster have done to this country is too staggeringly awful for their minds to accept.

    DIE is in almost every place of employment, every school, every voluntary institution like some demented mutant Japanese knotweed. The Conservatives did nothing about it beyond lip service

    The Tories made it a lot worse. Companies now have to perform mandatory audits on the entirety imaginary “gender pay gap”, thanks to Theresa May. Treeza also set the table for mandatory race audits, which Labour will implement. Thanks to the Tories, Critical Race Theory is coming to your employer.

    They had no precedent for the idea of lockdown, a policy imported from a communist dictatorship and rolled out at the behest of A Bond Villain. A nominally ‘Conservative’ party decided to imprison the population and close boozers and sundry other businesses and destroy the economy

    They seized on lockdowns as a way to put voters back in their box, after we got funny ideas in 2016 and 2019. It’s not a coincidence King Tampon was rolled out to launch a “great reset” in 2020.

    though there’s been the odd noise about militant Trans people they continue to avoid confrontation with them or Hamas militants on the ground they seem scared of a confrontation

    It’s not that they’re scared of confrontation (look how confrontational the British state suddenly becomes when dealing with anti-lockdown protesters or Tommy Robinson). The Tories agree with the LGBTQIAWTF agenda, that’s all.

    The Tories are judas goats, their role is to soak up right wing and patriotic votes in order to ensure they’re harmlessly dissipated. Their “Labour supermajority” meme, aimed at gullible geriatrics who think the Ukraine war is a good idea, was about trying to stop Reform winning – not to stop Labour.

    Extending the ICE ban onset for five years hardly tackles the necessary abolition of ‘Net Zero’ and the realisation that the Climate Change thing is an enormous scam along the lines of COVID

    It’s like if someone shot us in the stomach, and then expected gratitude when they handed us a tissue.

    If ‘Reform’ is the closest thing to ‘none of the above’ then happy to tick that box. I have no doubt it will be horrendous.

    Almost everything that has happened since 2016 has been about nullifying the political power of the British people. They don’t want us to have the option of voting our way to freedom.

    Reform are the escape hatch.

  25. It seems the first unfortunate consequence of Labour has been revealed

    I have chosen to ignore some of the more abusive ones – but it’s fair to say the Labour troll bot machine was definitely out in force.

    So, too, are those who want nothing from a politician and who think Starmer will deliver that. I think they will be bitterly disappointed.

    What I can be sure of are three things, all of which I can control.

    The first is that I will speak truth to power.

    The second is that if this means I criticise Labour, I will.

    And, third, I will do so even if that upsets people.

    In this case, the likes and retweets considerably exceed the number of comments: that’s a positive measure on Twitter.

    But if people think that I will change my tone just because we have a new government that is intent on delivering the same old failed mantras in new, dull, and boring ways, they are seriously mistaken.

    Reminds me of the classic speech from ‘The Terminator’

    ‘Listen. And understand. Richard Murphy is out there. He can’t be bargained with. He can’t be reasoned with. He doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.’

  26. “We need more centre left parties.”
    I couldn’t agree more. The more of them there are the more divided the left vote. The People’ s Front, the Front of People, the Liberation Front…

  27. Steve,

    “The Tories are judas goats, their role is to soak up right wing and patriotic votes in order to ensure they’re harmlessly dissipated. Their “Labour supermajority” meme, aimed at gullible geriatrics who think the Ukraine war is a good idea, was about trying to stop Reform winning – not to stop Labour.”

    I think today shows that it’s blown. The whole image of the Conservatives has been shattered post-Brexit. There was that whole thing of “we can’t do this as we’re in the EU” and we took that barrier away, and they’ve done nothing, and even the most casual of right-wing voters has at last realised that they’re weasels.

    Looking at the results in detail, this is far worse for the Conservatives than I thought this morning. It’s not just that the number of seats is worse than 1997 for them, it’s that the seats they have won have majorities that have been blown to bits. North Dorset is down from 24,000 to 1500. Devizes is down from 23,000 to 3,000. It wouldn’t take much of a swing to Reform, and the Conservatives would have less members than the People’s Front of Judea.

  28. VP – Listen. And understand. Richard Murphy is out there. He can’t be bargained with. He can’t be reasoned with. He doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.’

    Viene una tormenta!

    Reform now have a famous five seats.

    Splendid. My fear was they might not get any. Now they have an institutional bridgehead and can show the public real live examples of Reform votes leading to Reform wins (always the most formidable psychopsephelogical barrier every would-be political party faces under FPTP, fear of the “wasted” vote is deeply engrained).

    Assuming they’re not five grandstanding preening windbag plonkers (always a hazard), that gives them enhanced *good* publicity opportunities – five new full time Reformers – and a credible base for future elections.

    Labour aren’t gonna get more popular over time, and at this point (anybody have the data?) I assume the Conservatives are coasting on the fumes of people in care homes who still think Mrs Thatcher is the Prime Minister. Delightful old buffers called JR Hartley and the Last of the Blue Rinsians. But I don’t think they have any (unpaid) activists left, so lol.

    Overhearing the jungle drums at ConHome, chinless failed Brexit-thwarter “Lord” Gavin Barwell sets the mood music for the Rump Tory Wet Loser faction: Reform is an existential threat to the Tories as a governing party, and the Tories must do nothing to mollify the hated right wing who want “harmful” things such as less immigration or tax cuts. (Ergo Reform must be destroyed, logically)

    He also snidely digs at Corbyn and, by extension, Boris. But both those men persuaded more than ten million Britons to turn out and vote for their respective parties. The strangely queer Sir Keir’s Labour just received significantly fewer votes in its landslide victory than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour received in his worst general election performance.

    I expect the Tories to follow Barwellist coping strategies. (Being the Pied Piper of the Right is their only USP to big donors.) Similarly, Labour will learn nothing from why Jeremy Corbyn invigorated the Left and just won re-election as an Independent. Why should they? They think they’ve just won handsomely, so no need to think too hard about why their vote collapsed since Grampa Death and how come they were unable to translate widespread hatred for the most wretched Tory government in history into votes for Labour. They also won’t pay any heed to the various “Gaza” candidates who just won election as independents in a general election, just in case they thought spaying Gorgeous George would be the end of their troubles.

    Whistling like Gracie Fields past a graveyard, I tell thee.

    So, with both the fake Right and the Davos Left doggedly sticking to unpopularism, the field is clear for Reform, if they’re smart enough to take it and hold it. They could be in government within the next two election cycles. Anything’s possible these days.

    (Apologies if you’re into the whole “brevity” thing)

    He said a storm is coming in. (Terminator music plays)

  29. Truss the Electorate.

    Western Bloke.
    The far right see the working class as criminals and parasites. As a left winger I say please do not refer to people on the dole as scum. These people are suffering from mental or physical illness. Or are discriminated against.
    In the future all jobs will be done by AI. So does that make everyone dolescum. I would not refer to the unemployed as dolescum.

  30. @Bind in Lüneburg – “I won’t be holding my breath waiting the LibDems to be demanding Labour introduce PR.”

    It is very much in the interests of the LibDems to get a proportional system. They have no realistic prospect of being in government as a sole party, so the most they can hope for is to be an influential junior partner. The FPTP system, as we have just seen, is hugely unfair, giving one party a big majority even though they got a minority of votes, so most just flips between each of the two big parties getting into government on less than half the vote. In a system which had a proportional result (assuming people voted the same way, which they surely would not have), we’d have Labour, 33.7% plus LibDem, 12.2% together having only 45.9% so needing also Reform (14.3%), Conservative (23.7%) or Green (6.4%) to support them in forming a government (or, theoretically, lots of tiny parties and independents). Similarly, the Boris big majority of 2019, obtained with only 43.6% of the votes, would have needed the LibDems (11.6%).

    Reform, likewise, would hugely benefit from a proportional system, especially if in future elections the current contempt for the Conservatives has started to be forgotten and some of the anti-Conservative protest vote trickles back. Otherwise they’re in danger of fading away again.

  31. “The far right see the working class as criminals and parasites.”

    Lol. The ‘far right’ as you so quaintly term us ARE the working classes. The people who voted for Reform are the workers, the doers. The sort of people who get up early to make sure your online delivery of quinoa arrives on time. Not the middle class ‘Working from Home’ brigade of shirkers and the welfare sucking layabouts. The working classes were who kept the country running during covid, and it didn’t go unnoticed that we could do without a good third or more of the country and everything would run perfectly well. And that would be the third who are paid a LOT more than the working classes as well.

    The ultimate irony for the Left is that the working classes are finally revolting, and up for a revolution just as the Left have abandoned them entirely, in favour of the ‘educated’ middle class bourgeoisie and the parasite class of welfare claimants (including immigrants). With a bit of luck the Left will get swept away in a true working class revolution.

  32. Truss the Electorate

    Jim – The unemployed are often people with physical and mental illness. People are often discriminated in the job market dye to superficial reasons. They need help.
    To define them as parasites is evil. Only a cruel evil society would send people to poverty and famine.
    The far right help.the rich elites not the working class. The right are on the side of the rich not the poor. The working class need workers rights, unions, fair pay. All things the far right hate and despise.
    The NHS is funded by taxation. It is the far right that want to cut public services, including the NHS, state education, the law and order, housing, pensions, and benefits.
    What you are asking for is revolution to increase poverty death famine and inequality.
    The working class are always one step away from poverty and unemployment. They need help for the poor as they may end up there.
    The far.right are on the side of the rich and tax cuts for the rich and cuts for public services. Where do you think funding for the NHS comes from?
    The far right ARE THE ENEMY of the working class.
    The centre left are the working class.
    The middle and working class have the same.e interests. Doctors, police and nurses are often middle class.

  33. Can’t help noting that 3 of the heavyweight Ministerial posts are filled by MSc at LSE Alumni
    Energy – Miliband
    Home Secretary – Cooper
    Chancellor – Reeves
    We should be ok. Go for growth guys.

  34. TtE @ 10.49, wow, so much projection in such a short post.
    The most socialist, left wing, Corbyn loving labour voter I know owns three cars (Porsche, Jag and vintage TR7) and three houses in Southend on Sea (should be ‘on mud’ really as it is the Thames estuary, as I always like to point out). He sounds just like you.

    One of my fellow constituents was recently asked by a journalist why he doesn’t work. Sitting there smoking a fag and holding a can of Stella he answered “where else can I get £1300 a month and my rent paid”.
    Have a butchers at the Peter Sellers film ‘Heavens Above’. The Smith family had the system all worked out and that was in 1963.

    One of Reforms ‘contract’ pledges was to increase the Income Tax threshold to £20000, taking virtually everybody on minimum wage out of the Income Tax altogether.
    Megamind Ed Balls asked Nigel about this and stated “how much would someone on £90000 gain”, making it sound as though they would gain far more than someone on minimum wage. This cunt was Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. If Rachel Reeves is this thick God help us.

    And as a member of your ‘Far Right’, I don’t want to see cuts in services, I want better value for MY money from those services, ie: no spending on Diversity consultants, Trans / Ukraine lanyards , free Palestine badges, pride flags (cont page 94).

  35. Truss the Electorate

    You cannot call people parasites for not working.
    1. . They may have mental or physical issues.
    Plus they may be discriminated against.
    2. They may be former soldiers, police,.coastguards, doctors, nurses, fire personnel injured in the line of duty
    3..They night be pensioners.
    4. They might be hard workers who suddenly get cancer or an illness.

    You cannot wipe people out for being ill. And then call that saving the working class, when working class people often fall into benefits due to physical or mental health issues.

  36. His argument made no sense at all, because it wasn’t rational.

    Lol, projection much, accusing me of acting out of fear while you were acting out of sheer bloody anger. Punishing the Tories was the only election issue you cared about. If there’d been a bit more thought and discipline in the “Reform” camp we might have ended up with more Reform MPs along with fewer maniac socialists. But that would have meant less damage to the Tories and you couldn’t have that. Exactly as predicted, “smash the Tories” ended up with a Labour landslide; Starmer with an unassailable mandate. And a pathetic, wank stain dribble for Reform; one more seat than the Islamists. Well fucking done you fucking “genius”.

    It’s the same with the Ukraine stuff . . .

    In the sense of warning about not behaving like such dumb cunts that you hand victory to an enemy, yes, the same.

  37. @Addolff – “Ed Balls asked Nigel about this and stated “how much would someone on £90000 gain”, making it sound as though they would gain far more than someone on minimum wage.”

    They would. The allowance would increase by £7430 Someone on minimum wage, if they benefit from all of this change, would gain £1496 (20% of £7430). Someone earning £90000 would gain £2972 (40% of £7430), so twice as big a gain.

    But the point made by the question shows how much the left is driven by envy. Nobody should care what the £90000 earner is gaining, because the purpose of the change is to benefit people who are on low pay and it woud do that successfully.

  38. Charles, surely both would gain the 20% tax not due on £7430?

    £0-20000 = 0%
    £20000 – 40000 = 20″
    £40000 – 90000 = 40%

    Not being an expert, I am open to some education if incorrect…………

  39. Adolf

    As no one else has replied (though it’s impossible to know with all this delayed stuff), it would depend on whether the £20-40K range (in your example) changed.

    Using real reliefs, if the personal allowance went from £12.57K to £20K, then what happens to the next 20% range? Currently, it’s ~£12.6K to £50.3K, a range of £37.7K. If that range stays the same (ie, it now becomes £20K-£57.7K), then the higher rate chap gets his relief at 40%. If the 20% range reduces to compensate so that it is now £20K-£50.3K (reduced range of £30.3K), then yes, the higher rate chap only gets his relief at 20%.

    (If the £50.3K reduced (shrinking the 20% range further), then you could even reduce the benefit to the higher paid chap. Ie, it would depend on the other changes, not the £20K. If no change to the 20% range, he’ll get the benefit at 40%.)

  40. PF thanks for your reply and yes, there has been some griping about the moderating since it was introduced.

    I based my comment on the only change mentioned by Nigel in the interview with Ed Balls – taking the tax free allowance to £20k, but Reform also proposed raising the threshold for higher rate IT to £70k.

    Tens of millions of lower paid workers would gain from this change but as Charles says, envy is strong with the left.

    p.s. I acknowledge the typos in @ 5.43 – I know the bands are 20 – 50/ 50 – 125, 125+.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *