In 2002, Sars, a dangerous coronavirus, spread across the world with a fatality rate of around 10%. Although it was contained relatively quickly, east Asian countries learned from this experience and updated their pandemic preparedness plans. Their governments wanted to be ready if the virus returned. On the other side of the world, the UK didn’t react or adapt. Complacency was at play, especially with the assumption that Britain was one of the most prepared countries in the world for a pandemic.
The consequence, as Lady Hallett’s first report from the Covid inquiry notes, is that the UK government failed in its basic responsibility to its citizens of keeping them safe. The UK had too many preventable deaths, not only from Covid, but also from the shutdown of health services and a long lockdown that would have been unnecessary had public health systems been in place.
What actually happened is that the UK had a plan in place. Roughly and approximately what Sweden did – we know this because Sweden looked around for a plan and took the UK’s. Also, Sweden had the “best” outcome of all European nations.
The problem wasn’t that we didn’t have a plan. It’s that the UK didn’t follow the plan we had – largely because of the conniption fits of the public health specialists.
Tim – have you confused the illnesses here?
Mind you, she’s talking nonsense. The case fatality rate for SARS was 3% rather than 10% .
It was obvious that the Covid Inquiry was asking the wrong questions and would reach an obviously wrong conclusion. As with my comment below, this is another example of Yes Minister at work.
The plan was devised in 2011 and conveniently lost behind a filing cabinet as the politicians panicked thanks to incompetent ‘scientists’ and bloodthirsty morons in the media.
The punishment for idiots like Vallance, instead of being hanged, is to be made a peer and a minister.
No, she’s using SARs as a lead in. The she complains about covid.
She is still out by a Ferguson on SARS. All early estimates are out by a Ferguson because you notice the numerator of dead people very accurately, the denominator of confirmed “cases” ignores huge numbers of unconfirmed.
If people knew how “deadly” sniffles going around care homes were we would be in permanent lockdown.
Oh, she is also the Lord Haw Haw of covid.
These people are just creaming themselves over the fact they will do 2020 to us again, they know they will get the opportunity, and there is nothing we can do to stop them.
A fine example of career progression when you go down on your boss for regular helpings of hairy fish pie.
She also has the same attitude as Murphy to criticism. When your statements are shown to be utter bollocks or lies, you simply block the critics from commenting.
SARS…
Worldwide predictions were that “millions would die”, in actuality the WHO figure was 740 deaths.
For the UK, the prediction was “tens of thousands of deaths”, in actuality, according to the NHS, there were only 4 identified cases, resulting in zero deaths.
I get the impression that the judge who has run the inquiry is a genuine, copper-bottomed dimwit.
Presumably she was selected for that very reason.
Further to the above, especially re covid… I would appear to have been unusually (for me!) prescient at the time of the first lockdown, thus:-
I also had a punt at the “prediction industry”, which has also turned out reasonably correct..
Eat your heart out Mystic Meg, the Baron’s back in town!
“In 2002, Sars, a dangerous coronavirus… “. No it isn’t! It is a syndrome. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and was caused by a virus named SARS Coronavirus 1.
It was very severe, meaning it was quickly identified, the infectious could be isolated. Its severity also quickly immobilised its victims reducing opportunity to pass on the virus to others. Virulent pathogens are self-limiting for this reason.
The UK Pandemic Plan was updated in 2011 following what was learned from the 2003 to 2004 SARS CoV 1 episode.
The whole problem with the Government response is it did not follow this plan – which Sweden did, having a similar plan.
Importantly, SARS CoV 2 was less virulent (on a par with influenza in a few, a mild Cold in most) than CoV 1 and its severity was confined mostly to moribund elderly with comorbidity and others with compromised immune systems – well most pathogens do that.
Despite claims to the contrary, it was not ‘highly’ infectious, otherwise the population would have very quickly been widely infected and immunised against it. From the Pfizer trial data, risk of infection was 0.88%. Soon it emerged Infection Mortality Rate was 0.12% and Case Fatality Rate, 2% to 3%. Idiots who mixed these two up -like at Imperial College- prediction much higher death totals across the population. Most of the case fatalities were among the elderly.
And… it is clear the first infections and cases (hospital) occurred in Autumn 2019 during the Winter ‘flu season but were missed in the absence of CoVid hysteria and assumed to be ‘flu’.
Death rate peaked in early March, meaning infection rate peaked in early February (21 to 28 days infection to death) and so the epidemic was over well before lockdown.
However I am relieved to learn from the £19 million enquiry that nobody in Government or its advisors, ‘scientists’ etc were in any way at fault. No doubt ‘lessons have been learned’.
If you start from the wrong premise you’ll reach the wrong conclusion.
Hallett takes the 200,000 death figure at face value, but it’s out by a Ferguson or two.
As can be seen by average age of “death by covid”.
The real killers were the NHS (intubation), the public health scientists (quick, panic while we have a chance!) and the government / MSM blob. Corrupted by greedy pharmaceutical agents who managed to ban well proven and low cost treatments so that new and dangerous “vaccines” could be substituted for conservative care.
Even the care homes scandal has been ludicrously hyped. Average life expectancy on entry to a care home is two years. Half the care home population dying in a “pandemic” is not evidence of a lethal disease.
The risk associated with getting Covid (v1) were around the same as a couple of months of normal average living. Later versions less.
If you were 90 with a dodgy ticker then probably 30% fatality rate – because that is what youd expect in a normal couple of months. If you were 10 then unmeasurably low fatality rate – because thats what youd expect in a normal etc.
Printing the fatalities big and out of context caused a panic, statism and financial ruin.
Incompetence or Cui Bono?
I did chuckle when “Public Health” Professor Devi asked at the beginning of the year why the NHS delivered poor outcomes when she’d just been acquainted with the fact it had more staff and money than ever before and there had been no austerity cuts.
there is more joy in heaven over one lost sinner who repents
Given her policies in terms of Lockdown and Vaccines have killed hundreds of thousands you have to ask why is the Guardian giving her a platform – indeed why isn’t she, post repeal of the HRA which should have occurred, looking at the business end of a gallows.
John B
Death rate peaked in early April, not March, but yes – roughly a 23 day average for that variant from infection to death – so infections had already peaked and were in decline before any lockdown, as you say. This was true in some other western European countries that also wrongly credited their lockdowns for arresting the surge.
Lies or cretinous stupidity all the way by all involved – politicians, medics and media, and the crooked committee chair referred to above.
Looks possible that the ‘mistakes made’ will include lockdowns https://unherd.com/newsroom/did-the-covid-inquiry-report-just-admit-lockdown-was-a-mistake/
“Lady Hallett’s first report from the Covid inquiry notes, is that the UK government failed in its basic responsibility to its citizens of keeping them safe. The UK had too many preventable deaths, not only from Covid, but also from the shutdown of health services and a long lockdown that would have been unnecessary had public health systems been in place.”
The government can’t ‘keep people safe’ from a globally widespread respiratory disease. Once it was out of China (ably assisted by the usual suspects telling us it was racist to stop flights from China – remember the hug a Chinaman photo-ops in early 2020?) it was going everywhere and no country was going to be able to prevent it becoming endemic. So everyone was going to have to deal with it up close and personally eventually. Contrary to popular opinion the governments of Western countries cannot control microbiology.
I do find the above statement from the Inquiry interesting. It appears to suggest that there was a ‘third way’ between doing nothing, and doing what we did. Which is perilously close to endorsing the Barrington Declaration. Which as we all know is scientific gibberish and only propounded by evil people who wanted to kill everyone /sarc. Is Baroness Hallett a closet Barrington supporter?
Population density in the UK is more than ten times that in Sweden. It’s possible that the best way to manage an epidemic is different in the two countries.
Smbf
It could be, but bear in mind that the 2011 plan counted on achieving herd immunity which is a lot easier in a densely populated country.
sombf
“Population density in the UK is more than ten times that in Sweden”
That’s not so relevant – as least when calculated in that way – as empty spaces don’t matter. It’s the composition of urban space that makes the difference, and on that metric there is far less difference. When one eliminates empty space it’s actually Spain that is one of the most densely populated countries in Europe. More tightly packed urban surrounded by considerable amounts of nothing.
Sombf: – that argument was deployed by EotW (experts of the world) against Anders Tegnell in 2020 and it looks more stupid now than it did then.
Some of my best friends are thick.
When one eliminates empty space it’s actually Spain that is one of the most densely populated countries in Europe.
I’ve seen that argument, and it’s mathematically correct in that there are hundreds of thousands of square km of Spain where the population is precisely zero. There are very few such square km in Central England, but there are lots of square km that have but a handful of people in them (perhaps a couple of farms). The real test of population density is how many people are there living within 5 or 25 kms (choose the distance based on what it is you’re trying to measure) – on this basis England will be seen to be much more densely populated than Spain.
Anders Tegnell seems to be a sensible chap, rather an unlikely hero for the nutters on here.
He explained to the CoVid enquiry that in Sweden “it is legally impossible to enforce a General quarantine or ‘lockdown’ measures”, that “during the first wave Sweden had a very high incidence and mortality
which of course shows that the response was not totally successful” and that “death rates are higher in Sweden than our Nordic neighbours but lower that the UK”.
He submitted a report (apparently unpublished) “Estimation of hospital care beds”. It’s clear that he had a major concern as to whether hospitals would be able to cope, just as in the UK.
Tegnell made no recommendations as to what the UK should do. He recognised that the Swedish response was particular to circumstances in Sweden.