Our first discovery was that, in the UK, various new electric cars lose 50 percent of their value in the first 12 months. Yes, you read that right—some EVs depreciate by 50 percent in a single year.
Now, this cannot be said of every EV, but Cap HPI data provided to WIRED by Parkers, a respected UK online car resource, revealed how six different EVs are all projected to halve in value after 12 months and 10,000 miles. These include the Audi e-Tron GT, which plummeted by 49 percent from £107,675 ($138,000) to £54,700 ($70,100), and the Ford Mustang Mach-E, which fell by 52 percent from £59,325 to £28,575. According to the data, a Polestar 2 would also lose 52 percent of its £52,895 sticker price in just 12 months.
No way do fuel savings make up for that….
Never mind, we’ll all club together and buy Miliminibrain one or two and he can have loadsa fun…
O/T a bit. (apols)
Marine diesel used to be high sulphur, barely refined so dirt cheap.
SO2 is a global cooling gas so the transition to low sulphur fuel contributes to global warming.
(The SO2 is emitted over the oceans so doesn’t affect human health.)
Ships are bigger than cars. Has anyone done any calculations for the power /weight ratio for running ships on batteries? Ports have cranes that could swap out the batteries along with the freight and recharge them using that local H2 that they say they will mass produce.
You have to wonder if the people who bought those cars new were aware of the rate of depreciation.
No need, he already walks the walk in a very ungainly way. I know this because I spotted the green goblin in a McDonalds outside a chav town in Wiltshire a couple of years ago. He’d stopped to charge his Nissan Leaf en route to Glastonbury, I assume. Mrs Compass threatened divorce if I followed through on the idea to buy him a bacon roll.
@andyf. Do many people still buy cars these days? I assume most EVs are leased by companies or individuals.
Back in the day, you’d get great rates on German executive ICE cars because the residuals were so high. It would be interesting to understand the interplay of monthly costs and tax in these days of fast-depreciating EVs, corporate sustainability drives etc.
The past:
Ship waiting in harbour for favourable wind and high tide to set sail.
The future:
Ship waiting in harbour for cheap or free electricity to charge the batteries before setting off. Could be a long wait if there’s a dunkelflaute.
Good point by WMC above. Nobody actually buys these things, they’re all leased because electric cars reduce tax bills compared to a petrol car. Nobody cares about the depreciation.
Went to stay with an old friend a couple of weeks ago. He’s very much in to tech but nevertheless I was still surprised to see a Tesla on the drive. Turned out he’d bought it 2nd hand and was more than happy with it, especially Tesla support. He’s really in to the EEV scene and reckons mid range 3-5 YO Teslas will be down at around £20k soon.
Charlie Oaks: «Nobody cares about the depreciation.»
Surely the leasing companies must be disappointed with the residual value as their EVs come home to roost?
You have to wonder if the people who bought those cars new were aware of the rate of depreciation.
Andy f, the depreciation is more then offset by the amount of virtue signalled by the owner.
Our first discovery was that, in the UK, various new electric cars lose 50 percent of their value in the first 12 months. Yes, you read that right—some EVs depreciate by 50 percent in a single year.
Play stupid games and you end up winning stupid prizes.
Here in ‘Merica we’ve reached the point where you can’t give those turkeys away.
One suspects a lot of this artificially keeping the list price high so the current pressure to achieve targets doesn’t impact the longer term pricing expectation. Leasing will make the bulk with heavy discounting and forecourt discount is actually being advertised on the cars in the lot – saw 20% off the other day without even asking.
Otoh its hardly surprising for high end new tech – cars mostly lose 50% over 3 years and I’d still look at the 3 year estimates as I suspect it evens out a lot . That said expect they will plummet again if solid state batteries ever get shipped.
I think most new EVs are bought through companies where the 100% first year corporation tax allowance and very low BIK rates make it an attractive option. I think this is why Tesla sales are so high – they release new model every couple of years and company directors buy one, dumping the old ones on the second hand market (a place near me sells 3 year old model 3’s for 20-25k). So laugh away at the depreciation – as with so many green innovation we are ALL paying for it!
PCPs have been popular with private buyers because they can put down a tiny deposit, pay three and fourpence a month rental and worry about the balloon payment when it turns up. Around 55% of new cars (of all types) are now disposed of by this method. (I say “disposed” because a PCP is merely a rental agreement and the car isn’t technically owned by the customer until the balloon payment is finalised, usually after 3-5 years), but its popularity is now waning. Some 4/6 years ago, the figure was hovering at around 85%.
The financial providers of PCPs are now starting to get extremely concerned at the ludicrous levels of EV depreciation, simply because there will be little or no equity in the car after 3-5 years, and so you can expect PCPs to be either withdrawn entirely or monthly payments will go through the roof to compensate for that depreciation.
My feeling is that we’re rapidly approaching an automotive sub-prime situation, which will make the job of moving EV iron even more of problem.
Tim, my £40,000 sticker price car (2022) is now worth about £17,000 with low mileage and one careful owner.
I don’t give a monkey’s, because it’s the company car firm’s problem. But somebody’s going to take a kick in the balls over the horrific depreciation of these things.
PS – no wonder they’re shitting their pants over cheap Chinese electric cars. If this keeps up, everybody will be able to afford one.
Get back to me when a second-hand EV is down to ten weeks’ dole money.
BEVs are more energy efficient than ICEs. That is to say, you get more miles per joule / calorie /whatever.
Ironically this means that ICEs have more potential for improvement, and they have been improving by leaps and bounds. Compare the MPG of a new Kia to an old Austin.
@Philip
https://man-es.com/docs/default-source/marine/tools/batteries-on-board-ocean-going-vessels.pdf?sfvrsn=deaa76b8_14
Summary: feasible for smaller vessels over short distances
This Ford Mustang Mach-E, which fell by 52 percent from £59,325 to £28,575 is the problem. As Chris said, the stupid high sticker price is what’s causing the problem. Wasn’t that long ago you could have bought a BMW M5 for the Mach-E money.
What Broom says – the 100% capital allowance for new EVs distorts the market. 77% of new EVs in the UK are bought by companies.
Also, the leasing companies are quickly catching up. Figures from Germany show that in August 2021, a lease for a €45,000 EV cost €284 per month, well below the €473 for an equivalent fossil-fuel model. In 2024, the cost for the EV has more than doubled to €621 while the fossil-fuel car has fallen to €468. I imagine numbers in the UK are similar.
@ Philip
An Austin A30 got 40 mpg in the early 1950s
A new Kia is better but I should not call it leaps and bounds – maybe one leap …
There’s a limit to how efficient you can make an ICE. There’s also a limit to how efficient you can make batteries.
It’s the result of engineering principles.
EVs will always be more efficient the ICE cars. But that conveniently ignores the losses in power transmission from where it’s made.
Engines have got more efficient, quite a bit. But cars have got significantly heavier.
The A30 weighed 685kg, ran on 70 Octane fuel, made 28 hp and could 0-60 just.
Compare with the figures for the Kia of choice which gives the same mpg but also has air con and has crumple zones consisting of more than your face…
At least an A30 won’t burn down your block of flats while you sleep, unlike your EV…
An Austin A30 got 40 mpg in the early 1950s
Manufacturer’s claimed, maybe. The A series was very agricultural. Ghastly porting. The best anyone got out of them in normal driving was low thirties. And under load they were thirsty. Might have got 40 out an Imp. But high compression overhead cam. It was a detuned Coventry Climax racing engine.
@Dennis
Here in ‘Merica we’ve reached the point where you can’t give those turkeys away.
In the UK, there’s a significant minority (let’s say 25% for argument) for whom an EV is a realistic choice. They’re not road warriors, relatively well-heeled (or, at least, with a company car), and (most important) have a property with a private drive so they can charge the beast at home (charging using public facilities is now almost as expensive as petrol, unless you cleverly bought an early Tesla which included it in the price). But most of those people already own an EV, which is why UK sales are tanking.
In the US, where lots of folks drive 100 miles to buy their groceries, and think a 1,000 mile road trip is something you might do over a long weekend for fun, I can’t imagine who buys EVs. Those who live in the big cities, where it might make sense, don’t keep a car there (unless they’re Bruce Wayne level wealthy).
It is self drive cars that will take over. Everyone including children will have their own self drive cars. It will be a revolution.
Even blind people and people with learning disabilities will have their own cars. Maybe the cars will be stored in massive multi floor public car parks?
@Cars
The cars will drive for their ow convenience, not yours.
Unless you really are a car.
The future.
Driver : Car ! Tesco’s !
Self Drive Car : Sod you, I’m going to Southend for the day.
Is that true? You get more kinetic energy out per unit of energy input, but this is offset by the fact that EVs can be up to a ton heavier than equivalent ICEVs.
@TomJ
He is, in any case, assessing the efficiency at the wrong point in the energy production process. The ICE is using its fuel after the energy cost of the refining process. With the BEV the reference point is the energy in the battery. It’s ignoring all the inefficiencies in the electricity generation & distribution process. Difficult to calculate because of the variety of generation providers but for fossil fuel the system loss is about 40/50%. Far greater than refining losses.
Yes. That is good most cars sold are secondhand cars. The consumer wins. The early indications are that after the second hand EV are very low running costs.
The consumer pays taxes to fund the first purchase but benefits from the vehicles lifetime reduction in emissions at 50usd a tonne say. (Unless they are over 50 with no children.)
I am sure people will have control over their self drive cars. Surely there can be a law protecting people from the state deciding where they can drive.
What happens when you park a herd of self-driving cars?
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/08/self-driving-waymo-cars-keep-sf-residents-awake-all-night-by-honking-at-each-other/
@Tom J
An electric motor is more efficient (a lot more) at converting electric current to rotary motion than an ICE is at converting the energy in its fuel to same, but as for a milk float being more energy efficient overall than a real car?
My great steaming hairy arse!!!!!
There’s a screamingly obvious reason why, for example, a lift uses an electric motor rather than a petrol/diesel engine.
But make that electric motor mobile and require that it carries its power source around with it?
Piece of piss if that power source could be a small genset, but the technologically illiterate ideologues require “zero emissions”.
The early indications are that after the second hand EV are very low running costs.
I’d say it’s far too early to know. You can’t make generalised statements like that about ICE cars. There are some makes & models are extremely expensive to repair if something goes wrong. And track records of what can & does go wrong. As almost inevitably, something will. The EVs haven’t been around long enough to build up a knowledge base of what might go wrong with them & the cost of fixing if it does.
“No way do fuel savings make up for that….”
Simple answer, double or treble the price of petrol. Next problem?
Double, treble —–we already have.
@ JB and bis
Running costs should be measured including insurance which is justifiably much higher for EVs [the insurance companies found out, to their shareholders’ cost, that EVs have more frequent and much more expensive accidents than cars with ICEs and have revised up the premiums they charge for EVs]
Yes, petrol/diesel are highly taxed, but so is electricity. I’m not talking about the 5% VAT, but the renewables obligations, balancing payments, climate change levy, feed-in tariffs, people-on-benefits-can’t-afford-electricity-because-we’ve-made-it-so-expensive-so-everyone-else-will-have-to-pay-even-more charges and “aren’t tax.”
Plus the network/transmission costs of hooking up unreliables that are miles from anywhere.
The price of electricity is at least 100% more than what it would be without the meddling.