The US is at real risk of recession – and it’s a disaster for Kamala Harris
The declining health of America’s economy threatens to upend the presidential election
Weeellll…..
If the US economy is just now about to enter a recession then no, that’s not really a danger. No one votes either way because the beancounters announce a recession. It’s because they or a mate got laid off, or takings are down, or sales are harder or – personal experience. And if it’s all just starting now then 3 months isn’t really long enough for opinions about how good or bad the economy is to change much. Maybe.
On the other hand if we’re saying that the economic statistics are already showing recession then that means the slowdown started some months back. Which means that it is a problem.
So, when did the recession start is that political q.
If the US economy is just now about to enter a recession then no, that’s not really a danger. No one votes either way because the beancounters announce a recession. It’s because they or a mate got laid off, or takings are down, or sales are harder or – personal experience.
Votes don’t matter because this won’t be an election as understood up to and probably including 2016, but to pretend for a moment; Dem voters are unemployed minorities, wealthy suburban white housewives, blue haired State employees, media scum, and billionaires.
With the possible exception of the media scum, and they will just do as they’re told, none of them are getting laid off, and they don’t care about sales.
Trump is going to rape them or jail them – that’s all that matters.
So, when did the recession start is that political q.
In the vanishingly unlikely case that he wins, I think you’ll find it starts – as a matter for serious consideration and reflection- on January 6 2025.
If he doesn’t it won’t.
The U.S.A. might not be in a recession and things may even look good on paper, but a lot of what I read and listen to says that a large proportion of Americans don’t believe it and think they are in recession, or heading for one. The sentiment is definitely one of thinking the economy isn’t right, one description is that it’s in a sugar rush.
I thought the US economy was going gangbusters based on Biden hosing printed money at it? Or is it a case of the economy is going really nicely for Wall Street and the likes of Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio (though maybe not so much over the last few days) but the average man in the street is struggling to make ends meet?
One of my odd ideas.
The big rises in minimum wage over there have led to fast food (and food out, not prepared at home) rising dramatically in price. USians eat out vastly more than we do, it’s a really in your face price for them. So, they’re getting the feeling that inflation is really high, that living standards are going backwards. But it’s not really – wholly – true, it’s a change in relative prices, not the general price level.
To follow your odd idea Tim. If fast & take-away food prices have significantly risen, then you’re going to see less of them bought. So less staff needed & lay-offs. And it’s worth bearing in mind, this sector is basically Americans selling fast food to each other. The producers & consumers are the same sort of people.
I don’t think so yet. The S&P 500 is still on a P/E of 27. It’s still high by historic standards. It just took a slip from around 29.
Also, on that fast food point, I always say that people notice petrol prices here.
Certainly prices seem to have risen here in Oz. But I usually cook up my Rubbish Bin Stew, so I can’t say about eating out.
When my sister and her husband visit, we’ll all go up to the local pub, so this’ll give me some idea.
” a large proportion of Americans don’t believe it and think they are in recession, or heading for one. ”
That large proportion is limited to those who buy groceries.
Looks like Austrian GDP Q3 expectations have taken a bit of a hit.