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Laffer Curve Event!

New levies – drawn up by Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, and Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary – will see North Sea oil and gas producers paying 78pc tax on profits from November. This is the highest rate of any UK sector.

Additionally, operators face being stripped of vital tax allowances, which let companies subtract the cost of the huge investments needed to find new oil and gas from the tax paid on profits.

So they’re to withdraw full expensing at the same time they up the profit tax rate. As a result:

A report from industry trade body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) said plans to further increase the windfall tax on oil and gas profits and scrap tax breaks would virtually halt all further investment into the North Sea.

The changes will cause “a reduction in capital investment from £14bn to £2.3bn from 2025 to 2029”. This would mean “a reduction of £13bn in the total economic value of the sector from 2025 to 2029,” OEUK said in its report.

So the Laffer Curve exists then. It’s possible to have tax rates so high that they reduce revenue over time. Brown, G, did this back a couple of decades too. Some people never do learn lessons, do they?

31 thoughts on “Laffer Curve Event!”

  1. “Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary “!!!! More accurately, Energy Destruction Secretary.

    I know from someone who “works” in the Snivel Service that the intelligence of politicians is incredibly low, but how can any person in the government think that their lifestyles will continue as before when the UK becomes a third world country in every respect? Although the real and present danger is our becoming a caliphate. Rache obviously hasn’t researched the life of women in those places. Admittedly, she’s unlikely to be stoned, unless she smells nice to some geezers guide dog…

  2. Don’t worry. We will be able to lose North Sea production quite painlessly once Great British Energy starts generating clean cheaper energy in ways that rapacious capitalist bastards haven’t even thought of before.

  3. The problem with these fucks is that we they look and grab and there is nothing you can do about it.

    I’m just getting ready to retire and been putting cash in my fund and now I find out that most of it will be wasted as they steal what they want and then means test what is left.

    I’ve spent all my life going through adapting but now I am starting to hate.

  4. @BiND: I took the letter Milliband has written to the National Grid as basically his way of escaping the manifesto commitments.

    ‘We want to do this, tell us how to achieve it. What you say, its physically impossible? Oh, OK we’ll tell the public its all your fault, you capitalist bastard’.

  5. One of my rabbit-hole dives found the Electricity Supply Emergency Code. It includes, in Annex 1, a rota disconnection plan. Electricity supply points at the 11kV level are given code letters, and if you know the code for your 11k to 415V transformer, this annex tells you when you will get power cuts at varying levels of shedding required. Happy reading this winter!

  6. Load shedding would be bad enough, TG. But the real concern – looking a few years down the road, when more of our nuclear capacity has reached end of life and Milibrain has closed gas-fired powers stations – is a complete collapse of the grid in winter, necessitating a so-called ‘black start’. This would leave parts of the UK (more remote parts, TBF) without electricity for five days – no electricity means no gas heating either and no comms. Don’t be surprised to learn of outbreaks of cannibalism.

  7. No mobile phones if the power is out. Nor any Internet phones. No tap water, either.

    And no one will have a prepared Black Start procedure, because the title is waycyst. Always assuming a black start is now possible: weren’t the designated black-start sites all coal powered?

  8. Tim: I think that’s what Dinorwig is for. Let’s hope the top reservoir is full when it all kicks off.

    By the way, for power nerds and other concerned citizens, this site is full of interesting info about the area UK Power Networks runs – SE England and East Anglia mostly. You do have to register. I’m not sure what the other network operators in the UK have available.

  9. Has anybody asked these feckless clowns how killing the British oil industry is supposed to help us “defeat Russia”?

    Vlad must be in serious danger of dying of laughter.

  10. @Tractor Gent
    Load shedding as the 11kV level is a very blunt tool. It potentially takes out hospitals and vulnerable people. Although the legislation is not yet there to permit it, Smart meters can be far more selective at turning off power. You just turn off power at all the meters in the area excluding those that are news worthy. Members of the Government are “essential workers” so of course their power will not be turned off either.

  11. Labour have decided we don’t need an arms industry either:

    The UK has moved to immediately suspend 30 arms export licences to Israel after a review by the new Labour government found a “clear risk” that UK arms may be used in serious violation of humanitarian law relating to the treatment of Palestinian detainees and the supply of aid to Gaza.

    The suspension will cover components for military aircraft including fighter aircraft, helicopters and drones.

    We’ll all get rich by being lawyers.

  12. Despite some serious competition among the Starmer intake, Milibrain remains the most dangerous man in Britain… on a time to remediate basis alone he’s untouchable….

    Surely there’s limited possibile explanations… insane, or in the pay of a foreign power would seem to cover all possibilities

  13. Just to think, if we’d even had the wettest of Conservative governments over the last 14 years, none of this would be a worry.

    We’d be well into the fracking boom by now. Instead of competing with Ireland and Germany for the most expensive electricity in the world, we’d have the cheapest energy bills in Europe by a country mile. And all the lovely economic and social good that entails.

    Instead, like an abusive boyfriend, they strung the country along for 14 long years of laughing promises while working night and day to preserve the Blairite Status Quo, which must not be challenged or you’re “far right”, now.

    They’ve even inflicted Stockholm Syndrome on our Theo.

    Never forget that the Cons could have spared us all this, with the stroke of a pen, and they chose not to. Labour and the Tories are the country’s least funny double act, and pretending to be two different parties is mostly kayfabe for the punters.

  14. Thanks andyf.

    I knew there was some reason why I didn’t accept my ‘leccy suppliers recent offer of a smart meter.

  15. andyf: I’m sure that’s part of the plan with the virtual forcing of smart meters on us all. As for legislation, all it takes is a Statutory Instrument which doesn’t even need to be debated in Parliament. See lock- down.

    There is already a big list of 11kV supply points that need to remain on. I dunno how fast the bureaucracy catches up with households with dialysis kit etc to put them on the list. If I ever need to rely on the local electricity supply for life-sustaining treatment then I’ll be sure to have a generator available!

  16. Steve

    They’ve even inflicted Stockholm Syndrome on our Theo.

    Either you are hard of understanding or you are deliberately caricaturing my position – or perhaps both. For the avoidance of any doubt, I have no enthusiasm for the Tories, I regard all politicians as untrustworthy (but the devil you know), I vote to protect my income and wealth (not least for my grandsons), I recommended voting tactically at the GE to maximise the number of seats won by the Tories and Reform, and to minimise the number of seats won by socialists, because Labour is always worse than the Tories…as is increasingly clear already!

  17. The energy firms will be able to make a killing when Nut Zero fails miserably and we need to crash start energy extraction from the north sea while the middle east burns

    Energy companies have a longer horizon than millibrain

  18. My home town, Warrington, has invested in a full fleet of electric buses due to start running later this year. There are no worries about power blackouts affecting the fleet because they will be charged from the solar farm the council owns in Lincolnshire apparently……………………………………………………..

  19. I can imagine Milliband throwing a spanner in N Sea maintainance as well.
    some construction sectors – heavy lift, pipeline tie-ins – will simply disappear.
    So no, Starfish, rebooting the N Sea won’t be easy when all the people and kit have left.

  20. So these Warrington e-busses….
    During the day, will they be out and about transporting customers, or plugged into the solar array to recharge.
    At night, will they be out and about transporting customers, or plugged into the solar array to…oh.

    It gets dark at nights. Who knew?

  21. Load shedding as the 11kV level is a very blunt tool. It potentially takes out hospitals and vulnerable people. Although the legislation is not yet there to permit it, Smart meters can be far more selective at turning off power. You just turn off power at all the meters in the area excluding those that are news worthy. Members of the Government are “essential workers” so of course their power will not be turned off either.

    Precisely the reason why I’ve refused to have a ‘smart’ meter. (Well, that and not wanting to be disconnected by some spotty teenager operating from their bedroom in Bulgaria.)

  22. @KevinS – “no worries about power blackouts affecting the fleet because they will be charged from the solar farm the council owns in Lincolnshire ”

    Are they going to drive to Lincolnshire to get charged? If not, I’m afraid the worthy solar created electricity will be flowing through the same wires as the evil fossil fuel generated power.

  23. @ T the C and Charles

    No worries there, they’ve installed a large diesel generator at the depot to cover for sunless and windless times. I’m sure it’s going to be fueled with “Green” diesel 😉

  24. @KevinS – “I’m sure it’s going to be fueled with “Green” diesel”

    Well, as long as it’s not red diesel!

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