This country’s “addiction to prison” – out of all proportion to rates of crime – sees England and Wales lock up more people than any other western European country, as unscrupulous politicians hue and cry for ever harsher sentences. Anecdotes of particularly horrific cases trump the actual statistics on crime (which is declining),
She never does grasp cause and effect, does she?
Crime has declined sharply over the past 30 years, with a near 90% fall in violent crime, burglary and car theft, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales
Lies, damned lies and useful idiot.
Crime is declining because fewer crimes are reported because Plod has decided some crimes are no longer crimes. Go to a shop with your shopping trolley nicked from Tesco and fill it up with stuff you want and stroll out. If the shopkeeper gets nasty call Plod. Depending on your melanin content and religion he might get banged up. Otherwise a bored civilian will ignore you.
Next week Polly will have been told about the far right thugs posting nasty things on Facebook and demand more prisons are built…
In general, the number of crime offenses in England and Wales has been rising at a fairly rapid pace, increasing from just over four million in 2013/14, to the high seen in 2022/23.
Prison works.
Crime has indeed declined, as Polly says, and this is measured both in terms of reported crime – which is a statistic vulnerable to police and government fiddling – and the more valid national crime surveys.
But this ignores the fact of “crime” being a social construct, like poverty. As Senator Daniel Moynihan said, we have “defined deviance down” by becoming more accepting of bad behaviour. When asked in surveys whether we have recently witnessed a crime taking place, who would bother recalling the ubiquitous smell of weed, or minor assaults?
Anyway, two questions for Polly.
1. Given how the left sees crime as a response to pauperisation, alienation etc., why has it declined during years of Tory “austerity”?
2. As we have been successful in bringing crime down, would she want to continue the march to social harmony by investigating whether some ethnic groups and migrants in general are more criminally inclined? There’s a dearth of evidence there, for some reason….
Crime has declined sharply over the past 30 years, with a near 90% fall in violent crime, burglary and car theft, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales
That’s an ambiguous statement, have they lumped them all together? In which case anyone one of them could have a disproportionate affect.
And so what if they have fallen by 90%? It doesn’t mean that the remaining crimes shouldn’t be punished by a prison sentence and a long one at that in the case of violent crimes.
Crime has indeed declined, as Polly says
Are you sure?
The reported violent crime rate has risen by more than a third in the last decade, exceeding 1,200 crimes per 100,000 people on average across the UK.
What if British crime statistics are as reliable as our census statistics?
Data from 2022 onwards….
https://www.statista.com/statistics/288256/violent-crimes-in-england-and-wales/
Marius,
She’s using British Crime Survey data which always seems to have crimes falling since 30 years ago. Obviously if it didn’t she’d find another source.
Steve:
“Crime has indeed declined, as Polly says
Are you sure?
The reported violent crime rate has risen by more than a third in the last decade, exceeding 1,200 crimes per 100,000 people on average across the UK.
What if British crime statistics are as reliable as our census statistics?”
I think that crime overall has declined, but reported violent crime has had the increase.
The link with the census is indeed interesting. The decline in the crime rate (as opposed to the number of crimes) could be due to the massive increase in population we have seen due to immigration. Either way, I’ve no doubt that our most recent arrivals are far more likely to commit crime than the indigenous population. And, being predominantly young males who are inclined to lurk on street corners than to quietly commit computer fraud, these are the high profile life-altering crimes like robbery, rape, stabbings, and burglaries.
a near 90% fall in violent crime, burglary and car theft, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales
Who are they trying to kid? Back in London I had 3 attempted muggings within 100 yards of my own front door ( I have to confess that most of the violence involved was my ensuring they were attempted). There are whole areas I used wander happily about in the 70s into the 80s I’d have serious reservations about now. Car taking away may have fallen. But that’s because cars are far harder to dive away in without keys now. The more desirable ones are simply loaded onto car transporters. Having them broken into is pretty well expected. Burglaries. I only had one successful on residences. Several attempted. One particular attempt was through the dog flap! You can imagine how that proceeded. Basically, unless you take extraordinary measures these days, you can expect a break in.
It’s reported, isn’t it? Since they’re unlikely to do anything about it, what’s the incentive to report to the police unless you need a crime number for insurance. And how many people claim on insurance? People only do that for high value incidents. Claiming on insurance inevitably leads to increased insurance premiums.
Anyone responded to the Crime Survey? Thought not.
Is it possible that burglary may have declined because there isn’t much of a market for second hand tat? A couple of years ago, my mum died and we had to clear her house of a lifetime’s accumulation of stuff. Some of it we sold, we made about £300 at a car boot, but most of it went to charity shops and a lot went to the tip because we couldn’t give it away. If someone broke in and made off with whatever they could carry, how much could they seriously expect to sell it for?
There’s the urban myth(?) story of someone putting an old, but workable, washing machine outside their house, marked “Free to anyone who wants it”. Three days later, it was still there. The sign was changed to “£25 ONO”. It disappeared overnight.
To some, it’s not the value of the item they stole, rather than the fact that they stole it.
There’s the recent story of the woman who put an unwanted bit of furniture outside her house for anyone to help themself to and who has been done by the council for fly tipping to the tune of £500.
Wasn’t a lot of crime break-ins to nick TV’s, DVD players and Microwaves? Stuff that could be sold down the pub for a decent price to buy some smack or whatever…? Obvs. they’d relieve you of anything else lying around while they were in your property…
Now all that stuff is so cheap to buy new (or too mahoosive to move in the case of TVs) it isn’t worth the risk of buying second-hand in the pub.
“…it isn’t worth the risk of buying second-hand in the pub.”
That is basically what I was getting at. One of the things from the aforementioned house clearing was an fully adjustable orthopedic bed. It needed a mattress and the mattresses are special and a little expensive because they have to be flexible. The rest of it was in full working order and the things are really expensive to buy new. We couldn’t give it away and it eventually went to the tip.
Simon Neale – I think you’re right.
It’s not getting less crazy out there.
BiC – people have more stealables on them (smartphones that can cost over £1000 new) now, breaking into the house to steal a 14 inch colour portable isn’t going to help fund anybody’s drug habit these days.
Also NB that a great deal of crime is now online. Criminal gangs from anywhere in the world can steal your data and try to hold you to ransom. Cyber crime is one of the most lucrative and fastest growing industries in the world.
So overall I’m unconvinced by the notion we’re safer from crime now than we were in 1994.
BiND,
“And so what if they have fallen by 90%? It doesn’t mean that the remaining crimes shouldn’t be punished by a prison sentence and a long one at that in the case of violent crimes.”
The idea that the UK is “addicted to prison” is laughable. Japan will put you in prison after 3 crimes. First crime: caution, second crime: community service, third crime: prison. And they don’t have a large prison population. That sort of rapid route to incarceration stops it before it starts. People don’t go nicking and view fines as a cost of doing business.
I was pointing out to someone that when I was a boy, shops could have vending machines outside, and they can’t now. Because we used to take crime seriously. And we don’t now.
The worst part about not taking crime seriously is how it alters how people have to defend themselves. Like a lot of our housing problems are because people in nice areas will try and block houses being built near them because they don’t want to risk getting scumbags near them. They know the neighbourhood will go downhill and the police will do nothing about it. Or how parks are vandalised, so you get indoor play areas that are privately run because the shit won’t be broken. Or how no-one will ride a bike to town because of the risk of it getting nicked.
And I’ve never once, ever, heard the public opposing spending more money on policing or prisons. The politicians will always be all “well, the police are starved of resources” as if the public asked them to do that. They’ll piss money away on HS2 though, which almost no-one wants.
Steve,
“BiC – people have more stealables on them (smartphones that can cost over £1000 new) now, breaking into the house to steal a 14 inch colour portable isn’t going to help fund anybody’s drug habit these days.”
The stealable stuff is Apple stuff. Dell and Moto is like Krytonite to the aspiring footballers. You ever read a story about someone’s phone getting pinched, it’s an iPhone.
When I sold my house 2 years ago to move into a 1 bed flat I had to pay someone to take away and scrap a lot of the very nice wooden furniture because charity shops are full of it and don’t want any more.
I’ll believe the state propaganda and crime statistics when the police announce they’re doing away with their stab vests.