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Hopeless, really, hopeless

How to start trading forex as a beginner
Telegraph Money explains the lucrative investment technique akin to gambling

For the individual this is not an investment technique. It is gambling and at bad, bad odds. Not becuase the odds are fixed but because the gambling is being done against the rest of the FX market. Which is staffed by some of the finest gambling brains in the universe.

It’s playing poker against all past winners of the world poker championship at the same time. Not a game the individual investor is likely to win.

Will get a number of clicks to the webpage, obviously. High search ranking and all that. But…..

10 thoughts on “Hopeless, really, hopeless”

  1. @TW

    You are right that this is a terrible idea for individual investors!

    But for high frequency trading, it’s probably more or less 50/50 before trading costs, precisely because all the best players in the world and their bots are cancelling each other out – making the short term price movements something like a random walk.

    What will bankrupt the individual investor is paying relatively high trading costs (through spreads or formal commission) each and every time he trades.

  2. It’s also true that at the level of the pip – the trading level these days – price movements are a random walk. Which, when you add the usual gearing…..ouch.

  3. Well I’ve been doing it quite successfully for a few years.
    It’s also true that at the level of the pip – the trading level these days – price movements are a random walk.
    Almost, but not quite. I see enough pattern at fine granularity to use it. How, I don’t know. Market trader instinct? But it seems well better than 50/50.

  4. Incidentally, I only trade when there’s nothing happening. Just the churn of everyday exchange transactions. Something dramatic in the offing I sit on my hands. I just try to make a few points here & there.

  5. My best investment of the last few years has been transferring all my various cash accounts on Revolut and Wise into CHF and SGD.

    It was pretty clear what the direction of travel was going to be.

    Day trading FX? A mug’s game.

  6. Absolutely & completely OT
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/25/stir-up-sunday-christmas-pudding-minimalism/

    This article is based around a tradition of “stir up Sunday”. Something personally, I’ve never heard off. (Anyone else?) Supposed to be the Sunday before Xmas when the Xmas pud was made. Although with survey results indicating I’m one of 77% likewise & only 4% saying they keep the “tradition”, maybe not much of a tradition.
    But as far as I was aware there is actually a real tradition contradicts this one. Xmas puds were always regarded as something that was made after Xmas for the following Xmas. Since all the best recipe books claimed they needed a year to fully mature for the perfect taste & consistency. My grandmother always did.
    It’s certainly a tradition I keep up. Sort of. This years Xmas pud was bought at reduced price from our UK supermarket chain offshoot a few days after last. We keep both continental & British Xmas in this house for added gluttony. The late night Xmas Eve feast & the Brit Xmas midday one. When the pud will be inflicted on the Latin contingent, soused with brandy & aflame accompanied by cream. A million & a half fattening calories in every portion! They despise it but are forced to consume it as deserving retribution for the past year’s sins.

  7. Yes, I’ve always had the idea that stir up Sunday (to the extent that it even exists) is about making “next year’s” cake and pudding.

  8. Bloke in North Dorset

    My wife used to do stir up Sunday every year and we had to have a stir and make a wish. The problem was that I love Christmas pud on Christmas Day but aren’t bothered at any other time so one pudding would last 2 to 3 years, especially after our son moved out.

  9. Not the Sunday before Christmas but rather the Sunday before Advent. Named for the Collect for the day from the Book of Common Prayer.

    “ STIR up, we beseech thee, O Lord, the wills of thy faithful people; that they, plenteously bringing forth the fruit of good works, may of thee be plenteously rewarded; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.”

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