The idea of defeating Trump at the next election is an illusion. Although elections may be conducted for some time, the outcome will be predetermined. Street protest might be tolerated, as long as it is harmless, but will be suppressed brutally if it threatens the regime. Legal action will go nowhere, given that the Supreme Court has already authorised any criminal action Trump might take as president.
And there was me thinking Trump cannot be elected President again after this term, this being his second term and all..
Mind.. If he does do his job right, he would still be “the Man to Beat”, because if the Reps don’t make funny moves whoever is up next would have Trump’s endorsement. So even as ex-President he would still swing a mighty bat.
But Trump cannot be on the ballot next time around, not without a change in the Constitution, and no-one would be mad enough to try that..
(Street) protest might be tolerated, as long as it is harmless, but will be suppressed brutally if it threatens the regime
Err – isn’t brutal suppression of a perceived threat precisely what the other guys did on Jan 6th?
A few weeks ago, I drew up a flowchart to estimate the probability that Trump would establish a dictatorship in the US
Lol. Cuckoo!
It’s possible that Trump will overreach in some way, such as carrying out his threat to execute political opponents before the ground is fully prepared.
Be still, my beating helicopter blades.
We need to back out of AUKUS
Well duh. AUKUS is a scheme to sell Australia a small number of insanely expensive nuclear submarines that are just enough to annoy China, but not enough to credibly deter the People’s Liberation Army Navy, which is growing at an enormous rate.
The deal to buy ridiculously expensive custom built French subs was also a terrible waste of resources. Australia would be better off buying a larger number of off the shelf diesel/fuel cell subs from Japan or Germany.
Steve, the Aussies did actually build hybrid subs from a Swedish design but it didn’t work out too well for them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine
Jon – Yarp. They were going to make this mistake again:
However, none of the tenders completely matched the desired RAN specifications, and the two proposals selected would have to be redesigned during the funded study.[23]
Jason Lynch knows a lot more about this stuff so maybe he’ll stop by. But allowing the brass to insist on their “unique requirements” is how we fucked up Ajax and it’s how costs and lead times typically spiral out of control.
Paying tens of billions of pounds to get the French to redesign a nuclear powered sub into a conventional one was stupid. Buying very expensive atomic fuelled subs when Australia has no nuclear industry to fuel them doesn’t make sense either.
The Japs have launched some amazing new conventional submarines that would suit the Aussies just fine. They’re also inherently quieter than a nuclear reactor, and Australia could afford a lot more of them, and deploy them years quicker, which would present the Chinese navy with more things to worry about should they get frisky.
War is a go big or go home business, so we should always privilege quantity over “quality”. If it’s good enough, it’s good enough. Off the shelf is usually far better than deviation from the original design – see also the RAF Phantoms that cost a lot more and were slower than the American version because we insisted on Rolls Royce engines.
We don’t need to speculate any more. Trump has announced the dictatorship, and there is no sign of effective resistance. The key elements so far include:
Extremists announced for all major positions, with a demand that they be recess appointments, not subject to Senate scrutiny
As opposed to perfectly normal swamp dwellers who believe that men can give birth or menstruate
A state of emergency from Day 1, with the use of the military against domestic opponents
Isn’t this solely at the border? Anyone got any idea if the National Guard is being mobilized against BLM and the Hamas mobs. Great news if it is of course.
Mass deportations, initially of non-citizens and then of “denaturalised” legal immigrants
It’s called ‘Illegal immigration’ – the clue is in the name
A third term (bizarrely, the nervous laughter that greeted this led to it being reported as a joke).
Isn’t this some kind of reference to the fact that he actually won three presidential elections as 2020 was quite clearly a stitch up
A comprehensive purge of the army, FBI and civil service
Exactly of the type being conducted by Left Wingers for 8 years – always be careful when handling a loaded weapon.
I am reminded of a quote from a show beloved by both Steve and I – The Sopranos:
‘Where do you get these morons, huh – where?’
Further calm assessments of the changed political landscape:
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1858355373184278995/
@PJF as the comment in your link says… Actually not that bad..
Doubly so given that the metal riff used is basically exclusive to Nu-Metal… 😀
( for those not familiar with the genres: Nu-Metal is the millennial “I-heard-HurtyWords-now-I’m-Angerous” shyte that made it to MTV in the days it did still play music videos. And yes, the post-80’s Metallica is Nu-Metal. Fite Me…. 😛 )
A while since I lookec st this, but I think the rule is that a Pres cannot serve more than two consecutive terms and 10 years in total.
So theoretically he can stand again but has to quit in 2030.
It was FDR wot caused it.
VP – I’ve heard noises that the incoming Trump admin may be about to start prosecuting the perfumed princes of the Pentagon who presided over the disastrous retreat from Kabul.
If so, if these people are actually going to face consequences for once in their lives, lol. Elphinstone’s retreat was less shameful.
I think the people now begging for God Emperor Trump’s to become a moderate compromiser should heed the wise words of Phil Leotardo:
“You want compromise, how’s this? Twenty years in the can I wanted manicott’, but I compromised. I ate grilled cheese off the radiator instead. I wanted to fuck a woman, but I compromised. I jacked off into a tissue. You see where I’m goin’?”
PJF – I will never tire of seeing that video
Otto – Trump is 78. But then, Nancy Pelosi is 84 (!) . And just a few months ago, all of the legacy media and the Democratic Party were swearing blind that 81 wasn’t too old for a presidential candidate…
Gen X is never getting its turn, are we?
But back to the crazy Australian prof and his soiled Tena Lady. Trump is not a dictator, or a Hitler, or a Lincoln. He’s a 90’s moderate Democrat. It’s just that the Overton Window has been forced so far to the left by our “elites”.
Even in the last few years, pop culture in general has become incredibly censorious, sour, and political in the wanky Ben Elton sense. The BBC are now censoring Little Britain (harmless low-effort catchphrase based yumor from the early 2000’s). That’s mental, right? I should know.
PS – PJF, I’m sorry if I was rude to you. I wasn’t in a good mood at the time, which is a shit excuse but the only one I have. No hard feelings.
@ Ottokring
This is the relevant bit of the 22nd Amendment:
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
(the rest deals with issues at the time of the amendment’s passing)
Trump can only serve this one more term. If he vacates less than half way through this term and Vance takes over, Vance can only be elected once and may preside for one and a part terms. If Trump vacates a year and a day through his term, Vance can be elected twice and may preside almost two and a half terms.
Two and (almost) a half terms is max go at POTUS.
@ Steve
– No hard feelings.
None likewise (you bastard). Besides, I’m too forgetful to bear grudges.
– I will never tire of seeing that video
But what ( t f ) about that other one floATing about. I hate cruelty to cats.
“ I’ve heard noises that the incoming Trump admin may be about to start prosecuting the perfumed princes of the Pentagon who presided over the disastrous retreat from Kabul.”
Nope, that’s that but that SCOTUS said the President can’t be prosecuted for, it was a legal decision while he was in office.
That’s why this bit was either ill informed nonsense or straight up lying, either way it disqualifies them from commenting.
“ given that the Supreme Court has already authorised any criminal action Trump might take as president.”
@Otto,PJF
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice,…(etc)</em"
As an engineer, I spend my working life working out how to break things.
The weasel word here is "elected".
So, after my second term, I support a candidate upon who I have the kompromat. He/She/Ze appoints me vice-president, then resigns. As vice-president, under the Constitution, I assume office. Third term!
Rinse & Repeat.
Which, come to think of it, was pretty much what Obama did for his 3rd term and intended for his 4th.
Sorry about the bungled HTML. No edit facility!
Steve said:
“Trump is not a dictator, or a Hitler, or a Lincoln. He’s a 90’s moderate Democrat.”
Wouldn’t a “‘90s moderate Democrat” be Bill Clinton?
OK, the sex scandals might match. But Clinton was for free trade and pointless foreign wars; don’t think Trump’s either of those.
PJF – as an ailurophile, I agree
BiND – We’ll see, there’s a lot of rumours naturally, but I think Trump will have his revenge. There’s a million administrative options at his disposal from January.
Richard – Trump is a multiple divorced New Yorker social liberal who is best friends with gay people and black celebrities and used to give money to Hillary Clinton. His economics have shifted Ross Perot (tho note the Democrats have already cancelled globalism, with remarkably little fanfare), but that’s not on the far right of American opinion either.
As we just saw, Trump is the centrist normie choice of the average American, all 76,688,251 of the awakening wonders. By definition, he’s not extreme. His defeated opponents are. Winners are normal, losers are weird. That’s just how society works.
PJF
Ta.
I hadn’t had a chance to check.
Putin got around a similar rule by having Medvedev serve an interim term.
Truman could’ve served a “third” term as this amendment was only going to affect the next president after him, but he dropped out at the primaries.
Otto – in the good timeline, JD Vance serves out two terms as President, 2028-2036, and then Fleet Admiral Barron Trump of the United States Space Corps seizes power in a bloodless coup, crowns himself Barron I, Lord Emperor of the Free World and leads us into a Butlerian jihad against Tik Tok and the Chinese Star Empire.
Amazing eyesight from 12,000 miles away. He’s seen the TTK regime!
@Tim the Coder – “He/She/Ze appoints me vice-president, then resigns. As vice-president, under the Constitution, I assume office.”
Vice presidents are elected, not appointed, so that won’t work. And if you’re not eligible to be president you can’t stand for vice president, so Trump cannot get another term like that.
There are two ways to be president for life that I can see. Firstly, get yourself appointed Speaker of the House of Representatives. That does not require you to be elected anywhere, though by tradition it goes to a member who is leader of the biggest party. Then getthe president and vice president to resign. You are now acting president. Repeat after your term.
Secondly, get elected as vice president and get the president to resign. You’re acting president. Repeat as often as you like as you have never “been elected” so you retain the right to be elected once (and therefore eligibility to be vice president) but there is no such limit on acting president.
You’d need a very friendly Supreme Court for either of those schemes, as even the most traditionalist judges would feel that there was something very wrong with defeating what was intended to be protection against excessive holding of the office of president.
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”
Which, by his own conviction that he won in 2020, meant that Trump couldn’t stand in 2024.
@Snag By the same logic, Hellary can’t run either, since she is *convinced* she won against Trump the first time, and would have won if they’d just Chosen her instead of Geriatric Joe the last time.
Thing is…. The officially recorded tally counts. Regardless of Opinion of…well… anyone. Unless it can be successfully contested in court.
My completely conspirational theory there is that Biden simply refused to deteriorate fast enough ( as stubborn old bastards do.. ), so that Kamaluh didn’t get the chance to become P in time, thus missing the chance to “promote” Hellary to VP.
Hellary could then proceed to indeed do that 2 Terms and a Half. By which time the Dems would probably have found a way to sort out a variant of the Putin Option.
I was wondering who this Australian academic was. Turns out it is John Quiggin. Pay him no mind, he’s a garden variety lefty idiot with no idea.
Aren’t we lucky for having had 1 Biden term rather than 2 trump in a row. We’ve seen how bad woke can get before it really got really bad, and trump has a rather better circle around him.
Is BiGin日本 the real ‘Q’?
🙂
Steve,
“War is a go big or go home business, so we should always privilege quantity over “quality”. If it’s good enough, it’s good enough. Off the shelf is usually far better than deviation from the original design – see also the RAF Phantoms that cost a lot more and were slower than the American version because we insisted on Rolls Royce engines.”
You know how it is with anything – cars, software, glass panels for buildings. Once you can get a factory process going, the cost falls dramatically, and reliability rises too.
Most of our military is create jobs or to satisfy other political requirements like gender equality, health and safety, the environment. None of which would matter much in a proper war. You’re never going to go to war with the F-35 because it’s too flipping expensive and takes too long to build. And however good it is, it’s never going to beat 3 aircraft attacking it.
Look at what happens in wars that matter. Like warlords in Africa. They use Toyota Hilux vehicles and AK47s. It’s cheap, reliable, well-tested tech.
This happened pre-WWII with the RAF. They knew jets worked, they knew they’d be lovely. They also knew they’d not be able to manufacture in quantity by the time war was likely to break out. So, Hurricanes, Spitfires, they knew they were worse than jets. But they could be built in quantity…..
Trump’s now been elected twice, so he can’t be elected again.
To serve as President again after this term, I think he would have to be Vice President and the President at the time would have to resign.
Or I suppose he could be in the line of succession they laid out (Secretary of State etc.) and some disaster could remove all the others ahead of him. Though in that case, apparently he would be “acting” instead of “becoming”. I don’t know what this involves; not interested enough to research it.
I do think either case is rather unlikely.
‘Look at what happens in wars that matter.’
Yeah WB. You’ll have noticed the huge use of drones instead of expensive missiles in the Ukraine war.
“This happened pre-WWII with the RAF. They knew jets worked, they knew they’d be lovely. They also knew they’d not be able to manufacture in quantity by the time war was likely to break out. So, Hurricanes, Spitfires, they knew they were worse than jets. But they could be built in quantity…..”
What did the RAF do to develop jet engines other than get in the way? It was Whittle who did that off his own bat and with private money. The RAF were more interested in their WW1 era biplanes (they introduced the Gloster Gladiator as late as 1937). The RAF could have had Whittle working on his engine designs as early as the late 20s and a prototype by the early 30s, but they told him they wouldn’t work and to stop wasting their time. He spent 5 more years trying to convince anyone in officialdom that he had a good idea, and was only able to start work when private enterprise put up the money to start PowerJets in 1935. He then had a working prototype jet turbine by 1937., when finally the brass hats got on board. You can judge the RAF’s interest in jets by the fact they didn’t even bother keeping Whittle’s designs to themselves (which they could have as he was a serving officer), thus allowing him to patent them.
If the RAF had seen the potential of Whittle’s work and thrown money and resources at it in 1930 we could have had jets in service by 1940, and whole of history could have been different. But the usual Services ‘not invented here’ attitude prevailed.
This happened pre-WWII with the RAF. They knew jets worked, they knew they’d be lovely. They also knew they’d not be able to manufacture in quantity by the time war was likely to break out. So, Hurricanes, Spitfires, they knew they were worse than jets. But they could be built in quantity…
You’re compressing two stories here. There was no serious interest in Whittle’s jet from the Air Ministry until 1939, and that was only to explore the potential through to a flying prototype. They had no real idea at that time whether the concept could be turned into a viable military platform. It was Spitfires vs Hurricanes that was the into-service dilemma in the run up to the war. Spitfires great but difficult and expensive; Hurricanes okay but already in mass production. So mostly Hurricanes.
Well, sorta. My information source was Grandpops. Who went through Cranwell with Whittle in that first class of working lads who were allowed to become officers and gentlemen. And who ended the war as head of engineering, fighter command. So, erm….