The Department of Justice is investigating Polymarket for allegedly allowing US-based users to bet on the site, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
And that’s one of thoise things that I think is near certain to have happened. Polymarket doesn;t have the right licences to accept US bets. It’s right on hte verge of getting them but activity in hte past few months would breach those rules. Sure, you can check IPs, addresses, all saorts of stuff. Know your customer rules and all that. But those will never work perfectly. Spoofing not being in the US is easy enough.
So, if they want to say “You allowed a USian to bet, you’re knicked” they almost certainly – to my mind – can. If they want to say “Well, how hard did you try to stop them?” that would be fair and something possible to defend against.
As to why they’re shoutiing now, sure, could be politics. But there’s also that fact that bureaucracies can be and often are hugely vindictive.
More than anything, I’d say that the news created awareness of it. I hadn’t heard of Polymarket until a few weeks ago. Then there were multiple news items. And to me it was “wait a second, this is gambling in the USA”.
I swear, the rise of cheap trading apps is partly linked to the US obsession about shutting down gambling. Stocks and options don’t count as gambling so you can do it from anywhere. No need to drive 4 hours to Reno or find a dodgy bookie to bet on football or horses. Just buy a call or put option on TSLA or NVDA with your $5.
Polymarket’s mistake was setting up in the USA in the first place. As I understand it, they use cryptocurrencies; so they could be based anywhere.
The headline I want to read is Musk Raids FBI
The USian Regime want to stop USians having anything at all to do with Forrin, judging by the frequency of requests from my bank to send in declarations that I Am Not Now, And Have Not Never Been, And Am Not Intending To Be, And Not Even Unknowingly, Nor Taking Action That May Be Construed As Me Being, a Citizen of the USA.
@Andrew M
Most Americans do not want to start a company abroad as it would mean moving abroad and you would still have to file tax returns and other documentation with the Americans due to the American citizenship based taxation model. Trump has said that he will end the double taxation of Americans living outside of the US. Whether or not he does this and this means citizenship taxation ends remains to be seen. The rumour is that Trump wants to pass a massive tax reform bill within his first 100 days.
Why would an online betting company set up in the US, if US citizens aren’t allowed to be on it?
Do the FBI not understand markets? If I believed that a Trump victory was going to be a disaster for me then I can hedge my risk by betting on Trump to win.
“But there’s also that fact that bureaucracies can be and often are hugely vindictive.”
Yeah. Ask Peanut.
Avenge me!
Vindictive bureaucracies eh?
Think you’ve hit the nail there Tim.
“FBI agents raided the Manhattan apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted Donald Trump’s stunning victory, The Post has learned.
The 26-year-old entrepreneur was roused from bed in his Soho pad at 6 a.m. by US law enforcement who demanded he turn over his phone and other electronic devices, a source close to the matter told The Post.
It’s “grand political theater at its worst,” the source told The Post. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the media and use it for obvious political reasons.”
Coplan was not provided with a reason for the raid, but the source suspects it was political retribution since Polymarket accurately predicted an easy Trump triumph over Vice President Kamala Harris – as opposed to traditional polls.
The source also speculated that the government is likely piggybacking off liberal media reports that accuse Polymarket of market manipulation and rigging its polls in favor of Trump.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/chris-wrays-fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-home-after/
Coplan was not provided with a reason for the raid,
I feel like, if armed goons can break into your house whenever they feel like it and don’t have to even give you a reason, the armed goons are out of control.
Also genuinely surprised this doesn’t go badly for the goons more often. There’s millions of people out there with mental health conditions, and most of them hate surprises.